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De gjorde ett klipp på den portugisiska bankkraschen

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De gjorde ett klipp på den portugisiska bankkraschen. Under den första helgen i augusti kom meddelandet om att den portugisiska banken Banco Espirito Santo, BES,

De gjorde ett klipp på den portugisiska bankkraschen. Under den första helgen i augusti kom meddelandet om att den portugisiska banken Banco Espirito Santo, BES, hade räddats. De portugisiska myndigheterna meddelade att de skulle skjuta till 4,9 miljarder Euro i syfte att rädda och omorganisera banken, bland annat genom att dela upp BES i två delar, en ”good bank” och en ”bad bank”. Flera av våra stora svenska fastighetsbolag är den direkta följden av sådana uppdelningar så tanken är inte alls dålig.

Kraftiga förluster på grund av BES exponering

Enligt planen kommer de som äger Banco Espirito Santos juniorobligationer omfattas av de kraftiga förluster på grund av BES exponering mot ett konglomerat med exponering mot bland annat fastigheter och hotellföretag.

Claus Vistesen på Pantheon Macroeconomics konstaterar också att kostnaden för bankkonkurser, ”nästan alltid visar sig högre än beräknat”, och tillade att han ser ingen anledning detta borde vara annorlunda när det gäller Banco Espirito Santo. Förutom att bidra med tunga förluster för investerarna, som sätter BES-konkursen också Portugals finansiella system i ett prekärt läge.

Insatserna är fortfarande höga i Portugal och det är långt från säkert att det egna kapitalet och de efterställda skulderna räcker till för att avveckla de dåliga tillgångarna och lånen. Ytterligare förluster skulle nästan säkert falla på staten som ny ägare av banken. Risken för att förlusterna från BES-konkursen skall få allvarligare effekter existerar fortfarande, men i skrivande stund visar diagramet nedan hur stora förluster som ägarna av Banco Espirito Santos värdepapper gör. Aktieägarna har nästan utplånats och Banco Espirito Santos efterställda skulder handlas till cirka 30 procent av det nominella värdet.

Hedgefonderna älskar detta

Vissa hedgefonder älskar detta då de gjorde ett klipp på den portugisiska bankkraschen. Den landspecifika vi brukar titta på Global X FTSE Portugal 20 ETF (NYSEArca: PGAL), är inte en av vinnarna, men det finns andra som tog hem stora pengar. Nedan listar vi några.

London-baserade hedgefonden Marshall Wace LLP blankade Espirito Santo på 99 eurocent, att jämföra med de 12 eurocent som aktien handelsstoppades till. Vi vet inte om Marshall Wace stängde sin korta position, men om så var fallet har denna hedgefond tjänat 36 MUSD till sina andelsägare. Andra hedgefonder som har tjänat stora pengar på Banco Espirito Santo var TT International och Altair Investment Management.

Vilka effekter har detta fått för PGAL?

PGAL, den landspecifika börshandlade fonden som satt på den andra sidan, det vill säga ägde aktier i Banco Espirito Santo, har fallit kraftigt redan under juli månad, ett fall sedan fortsatte ytterligare under denna vecka. Av de fem landspecifika ETF som följer PIIGS länderna är PGAL överlägset den som utvecklats sämst under den senaste månaden.

Om det finns en guldkant för PGAL det är att Espirito Santo är inte längre en del av denna ETFs innehav, eftersom aktierna i princip är värdelösa. Ett kalkylblad som finns på Global X:s hemsidan visar Espirito Santo representerade 0% av PGALs tillgångar. Tidigare svarade Espirito Santo för 3,5 procent av tillgångarna i PGAL och hela finanssektorn för 17,2 procent. Förvaltaren Global X följer slaviskt ett underliggande index och lägger inga fundamentala värderingar i innehaven i sin ETF.

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5 crypto trends to watch in 2025

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2024 was a landmark year for bitcoin, solidifying its role as a fully institutionalised asset class. 5 crypto trends to watch in 2025

2024 was a landmark year for bitcoin, solidifying its role as a fully institutionalised asset class.

Institutional inflows into physical bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) reached nearly $35 billion globally, signalling a major shift in how traditional investors view crypto. As bitcoin continued to enhance portfolios’ risk-return profiles, more institutional investors followed suit, reshaping the financial landscape.

Looking ahead, 2025 promises to bring exciting developments across the crypto ecosystem. Here are the top five crypto trends to watch.

Fear of being left behind

    The era of bitcoin as a niche investment is over. Institutional adoption is creating a ripple effect, forcing hesitant players to reconsider. Portfolios with bitcoin allocations are consistently outperforming those without, highlighting its growing importance.

    Figure 1: Bitcoin in a multi-asset portfolio

    60/40
    Global Portfolio
    1%
    Bitcoin Portfolio
    3%
    Bitcoin Portfolio
    5%
    Bitcoin Portfolio
    10%
    Bitcoin Portfolio
    MSCI AC WorldBloomberg MultiverseBitcoin
    Annualised Return5.77%6.46%7.83%9.20%12.57%9.07%0.56%56.24%
    Volatility8.79%8.86%9.14%9.62%11.42%13.94%5.05%67.28%
    Sharpe Ratio0.480.550.680.790.960.54-0.200.81
    Information Ratio1.011.011.011.00
    Beta70%71%73%75%81%100%24%181%

    Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree. From 31 December 2013 to 30 November 2024. In USD. Based on daily returns. The 60/40 Global Portfolio is composed of 60% MSCI All Country World and 40% Bloomberg Multiverse. You cannot invest directly in an index. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investment may go down in value.

    With bitcoin’s ability to noticeably improve portfolios’ risk-return profiles, asset managers face a clear choice: integrate bitcoin into multi-asset portfolios or risk falling behind in a rapidly evolving financial landscape. In 2025, expect the competition to heat up as clients demand exposure to this powerhouse cryptocurrency.

    Expanding crypto investment options

      In 2024, regulatory breakthroughs opened the doors for physical bitcoin and ether ETPs in key developed markets. This marked a critical step towards making cryptocurrencies mainstream, providing seamless access to institutional and retail investors alike.

      Figure 2: Global physical crypto ETP assets under management (AUM) and 2024 net flows

      Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree. 02 January 2025. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investment may go down in value.

      In 2025, this momentum is expected to accelerate as the crypto regulatory environment becomes more friendly in the United States and as key developed markets follow Europe’s lead and approve ETPs for altcoins such as Solana and XRP. With their clear utility and growing adoption, these altcoins are strong candidates for institutional investment vehicles.

      This next wave of altcoin ETPs will expand the diversity of crypto investment opportunities and further integrate cryptocurrencies into the global financial system.

      The maturing of Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem

        Ethereum’s role as the backbone of decentralised finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and Web3 is unmatched, but its scalability challenges remain a hurdle. Layer-2 solutions—technologies such as Arbitrum and Optimism—are transforming Ethereum’s scalability and usability by enabling faster, cheaper transactions.

        In 2025, Ethereum’s recent upgrades, such as Proto-Danksharding (introduced in the ‘Dencun’ upgrade), will drive layer-2 adoption even further. Innovations like Visa’s layer-2 payment platform leveraging Ethereum for instant cross-border transactions will underscore the platform’s evolution.

        Expect Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem to power real-world use cases ranging from tokenized assets to decentralised gaming, positioning it as the infrastructure of a truly scalable digital economy.

        Stablecoins: bridging finance and blockchain

          Stablecoins are becoming indispensable to the global financial system, offering the stability of traditional assets with the efficiency of blockchain. Platforms such as Ethereum dominate the stablecoin landscape, hosting stablecoin giants Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), which facilitate billions in daily transactions.

          Figure 3: Key stablecoin chains

          Source: Artemis Terminal, WisdomTree. 05 January 2025. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investment may go down in value.

          As we move into 2025, stablecoins will increasingly interact with blockchain ecosystems such as Solana and XRP. Solana’s high-speed, low-cost infrastructure makes it ideal for stablecoin payments and remittances, while XRP Ledger’s focus on cross-border efficiency positions it as a leader in global settlements. With institutional adoption rising and DeFi applications booming, stablecoins will serve as the backbone of a seamless, interconnected financial ecosystem.

          Tokenization: redefining ownership and revolutionising finance

            Tokenization is set to redefine how we think about ownership and value. By converting tangible assets like real estate, commodities, stocks, and art into digital tokens, tokenization breaks down barriers to entry and creates unprecedented liquidity.

            In 2025, tokenization will expand dramatically, empowering investors to own fractions of high-value assets. Platforms such as Paxos Gold and AspenCoin are already showcasing how tokenization can revolutionize markets for gold and luxury real estate. The integration of tokenized assets into DeFi will unlock new financial opportunities, such as using tokenized real estate as collateral for loans. As tokenization matures, it will transform industries ranging from private equity to venture capital, creating a more inclusive and efficient financial system.

            For the avoidance of any doubt, tokenization complements crypto by expanding the use cases of blockchain to include real-world applications.

            Looking ahead

            2025 is set to be a defining year for crypto, as innovation, regulation, and adoption converge. Whether it is bitcoin cementing its position as a portfolio staple, Ethereum scaling for mainstream use, or tokenization unlocking liquidity in untapped markets, the crypto ecosystem is poised for explosive growth. For investors and institutions alike, the opportunities have never been clearer or more compelling.

            This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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            FGLR ETF gör hållbara investeringar i hela världen

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            Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity UCITS ETF Acc (FGLR ETF) med ISIN IE00BKSBGV72, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

            Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity UCITS ETF Acc (FGLR ETF) med ISIN IE00BKSBGV72, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

            Denna ETF investerar i aktier från utvecklade marknader över hela världen. Värdepapper väljs ut enligt hållbarhet och grundläggande kriterier.

            Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,25 % p.a. Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity UCITS ETF Acc är den enda ETF som följer Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

            Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity UCITS ETF Acc är en liten ETF med tillgångar på 45 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 27 maj 2020 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

            Investeringsmål

            Fonden strävar efter att uppnå långsiktig kapitaltillväxt från en portfölj som huvudsakligen består av aktier i företag med säte globalt.

            Handla FGLR ETF

            Fidelity Sustainable Research Enhanced Global Equity UCITS ETF Acc (FGLR ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

            Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

            Börsnoteringar

            BörsValutaKortnamn
            gettexEURFGLR
            Borsa ItalianaEURFGLR
            London Stock ExchangeUSDFGLR
            London Stock ExchangeGBPFGLS
            SIX Swiss ExchangeUSDFGLR
            SIX Swiss ExchangeCHFFGLR
            XETRAEURFGLR

            Största innehav

            VärdepapperVikt %
            Microsoft Corp5.0%
            Apple Inc4.7%
            NVIDIA Corp4.5%
            Amazon.com Inc2.6%
            Meta Platforms Inc Class A2.4%
            Alphabet Inc Class A2.0%
            JPMorgan Chase & Co1.9%
            Visa Inc Class A1.6%
            Alphabet Inc Class C1.4%
            Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B1.2%

            Innehav kan komma att förändras

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            Trump’s inauguration day, BTC all-time high and the US election bullish effect

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            On January 20, 2025, bitcoin (BTC) reached a new all-time high, surpassing $109,000, and this milestone coincided with Donald Trump’s inauguration for his second term as U.S. President.

            On January 20, 2025, bitcoin (BTC) reached a new all-time high, surpassing $109,000, and this milestone coincided with Donald Trump’s inauguration for his second term as U.S. President.

            Historical trends show that BTC has performed exceptionally well in the 12 months following the past three U.S. elections. If history repeats, this could signal another bullish phase. With Trump’s pro-BTC stance and a U.S. Congress aligned on favorable digital regulation, the outlook for the coming months appears highly promising.

            Source: Hashdex Research with data from Messari (from November 6, 2012 to January 19, 2025).

            MARKET HIGHLIGHTS | Jan 13 2025 – Jan 19 2025

            Bitcoin-backed loans enabled on Coinbase’s L2

            • Now customers can borrow USDC in the new base’s lending protocol by using bitcoin as collateral.

            • This underscores the importance of onchain innovations as the pillar for future adoption of blockchain technology, in this case enhancing personal finance to be more decentralized and intuitive in a permissionless etho..

            ETF filings reiterate bullish regulatory tailwinds

            • As Donald Trump’s inauguration approaches, several asset managers have filed applications for new crypto ETF products, including those focused on assets like LTC and XRP.

            • This reflects optimism for 2025’s crypto regulations and their potential to transform the regulated products landscape.

            Trump to make crypto top priority in US agenda

            • U.S. President-elect Donald Trump allegedly plans to issue an executive order making crypto a national policy priority and establishing an advisory council.

            • The announcement signals that crypto has gained political importance. Even if not all promises are met, crypto has already crossed the chasm.

            MARKET METRICS

            The Nasdaq Crypto Index™

            This week saw a significant rise in digital assets as the market awaits Trump’s inauguration, with the NCI™ (+15.3%) outperforming all traditional asset classes. The NCI™ (+13.2%) also outperformed BTC (+12.1%), highlighting the value of diversification in a volatile market. The performance was positively impacted by SOL’s strong 46.3% gain, while ETH’s underwhelming 3.0% growth had a dampening effect.

            Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Bloomberg (from December 31, 2024 to January 19, 2025).

            It was a strong week for the NCI™ , with SOL leading the pack (among others, like XRP and LINK), surging 46.3%, while BTC (12.1%) and ETH (3.0%) lagged behind. This price action seems driven by excitement around Trump’s inauguration and the crypto-friendly environment his promises suggest.

            Source: Hashdex Research with data from Messari (from January 12, 2025 to January 19, 2025).

            Indices tracked by Hashdex

            Source: Hashdex Research with data from CF Benchmarks and Vinter (from January 19, 2024 to January 19, 2025).


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