Every month, 21Shares research team will present the cryptoassets of the month that increased or dropped in value by more than 15%. With a data-driven approach, we highlight the most important developments and events causing price movements.
Figure 1 – 30-Day Performance: Cryptoassets of the Month vs. Traditional Asset Classes
Data Source: 21Shares, CoinMarketCap, and Yahoo Finance, from 28-Feb-2023 to 31-Mar-2023 (Close Price)
XRP Ledger (XRP)
XRP traded up 42.80% in the past month as traders speculate that its legal battle against the SEC seems to be nearing its end. In December 2020, the SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple, arguing that XRP satisfies the Howey test’s requirements and is thus a security under US laws. On September 17, 2022, both parties agreed to forgo a trial, opting for a summary judgment. A Bloomberg senior litigation analyst, Elliot Stein, estimates that a ruling will happen within the next three months. Furthermore, exchange data from CoinGecko revealed that the XRP surge was primarily driven by South Korean traders. On March 29, XRP trading made up 37% of all volume on Bithumb and 18% on UpBit, the two largest South Korean exchanges by trading volume.
Stellar (XLM)
Stellar’s native token XLM rose 28.81% over the past month. On March 13, it was announced that Stellar would be connected to Polkadot and its ”canary network” Kusama via the newly built Spacewalk bridge. On March 28, Coinme’s wallet integrated USDC on the Stellar network. The move aims to target the cash remittance market, as Coinme is the most extensive crypto-cash network in the US, with over 40,000 locations nationwide. Regarding Stellar Aid Assist, the aid disbursement system leveraging the Stellar blockchain in collaboration with Circle and MoneyGram is being used in pilot programs by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to deliver cash assistance to internally displaced persons in Ukraine. The program aims to reach 5,000 persons by April.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin rallied 23.03% in the past month on the back of a looming banking crisis. On March 13, the Federal Reserve had to step in to protect all depositors of Silicon Valley Bank, which experienced a bank run two days before, and of crypto-friendly Signature Bank, controversially shut down by its state chartering authority. Then, on March 19, UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse in an emergency rescue deal brokered by Swiss authorities. Meanwhile, Bitcoin decoupled from risk assets like stocks and showed an increased correlation to Gold as investors turned to it as a hedge against bank risk. At its core, Bitcoin is a non-sovereign form of money that exhibits unique characteristics (trustless, permissionless, and censorship-resistant, among others). Indeed, one of Satoshi Nakamoto’s primary motivations for creating Bitcoin was to have an alternative form of money outside central banks’ control.
Strategies of the Month: March 2023
Every month, our research team will also present the best-performing strategies of the month in our product suite. With a data-driven approach, we highlight the most important developments and events causing price movements.
Figure 2: 30-Day Performance: Strategies of the Month vs. Traditional Asset Classes
Data Source: 21Shares Index Management Console and Yahoo Finance, from 28-Feb-2023 to 31-Mar-2023 (Close Price)
HODLV
The 21Shares Crypto Basket Equal Weight ETP (HODLV) appreciated 17.45% over the past month. HODLV tracks the investment results of an equally-weighted index composed of the top 5 largest cryptoassets based on market capitalization. The index’s best-performing asset was XRP, which appreciated 42.80% over the past month, followed by Bitcoin.
HODLX
The 21Shares Crypto Basket 10 ETP (HODLX) traded up 16.49% over the past month. HODLX seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of the top 10 largest cryptoassets based on market capitalization. Bitcoin and Ethereum currently represent ~86% of the index, which explains why the index’s performance was correlated with both assets over this period. Regarding Ethereum, the long-awaited Shanghai upgrade will launch on April 12, closing the loop on staking liquidity by allowing investors to withdraw their staked ETH.
KEYS
The 21Shares Bitwise Select 10 Large Cap Crypto ETP (KEYS) rose 16.48% over the past month. KEYS seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of the top 10 cryptoassets ranked by inflation-adjusted market capitalization. Because Bitcoin and Ethereum’s weights in the index represent about 93%, the index’s performance tends to be highly-correlated with both assets, as was the case over this period.
ABBA
The 21Shares Bitcoin Suisse Index ETP (ABBA) rose 15.08% over the past month. ABBA seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of Bitcoin and Ethereum based on market capitalizations. Investors should understand that Bitcoin and Ethereum serve different use cases and can complement each other in a portfolio. The former is positioned as a non-sovereign form of money, while the latter promises to be the foundational infrastructure for the new iteration of internet services.
HODL
The 21Shares Crypto Basket Index ETP (HODL) traded up 13.49% over the past month. HODL seeks to track the investment results of an index of the top 5 cryptoassets ranked by the 2050 market capitalization. The 2050 market capitalization is calculated using a projected 2050 supply number and current prices. Bitcoin and Ethereum’s weights are currently around 50% and 30%, while Polkadot is the third-largest constituent with a weight of ~13%. Smart contract platforms, like Ethereum and Solana, operate in isolation. In contrast, Polkadot works at a level below (interoperability), supporting a growing ecosystem of specialized blockchains called parachains.
BOLD
The 21Shares Bytetree BOLD ETP (BOLD) traded up 11.21% over the past month. BOLD offers volatility-managed exposure to Bitcoin and gold. Bitcoin’s 30-day rolling correlation to gold reached 0.5, surpassing its correlation to the S&P 500 for the first time since December 2020. Gold is the seminal store-of-value asset, used as money since the early days of civilization. Investors tend to buy gold during adverse macroeconomic conditions and inflationary environments. Due to the banking incidents observed in March, investors have now turned to Bitcoin as an alternative to the traditional financial system. The strategy adjusts weightings monthly according to historical volatility, allocating a higher weight to the less volatile asset. BTC’s allocation in the past month hovered around 20%.
MOON
The Sygnum Platform Winners Index ETP (MOON) rose 9.89% over the past month. MOON seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of the native tokens of the most prominent blockchain protocols, including only the largest network in a family of forks. MOON’s weighting methodology goes beyond backward-looking metrics like market cap and liquidity. It also includes early and leading indicators of value creation in the underlying ecosystems, such as developer engagement and public interest via social media.
ALTS
The 21Shares Crypto Mid-Market Index ETP (ALTS) appreciated 7.55% over the past month. ALTS seeks to track the investment results of an index capturing the mid-cap portion of the cryptoasset market. BNB and XRP are the largest constituents of the index with weights of ~39% and ~22%, respectively. BNB underperformed the broader crypto market as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charged Binance and its founder, Changpeng Zhao, with “willful evasion of federal law and operating an illegal digital asset derivatives exchange” on March 27.
STAKE
The 21Shares Staking Basket Index ETP (STAKE) traded up 6.49% over the past month. STAKE seeks to track an index comprising the largest cryptoassets with institutional-grade support for staking. Staking is a process whereby investors, commonly referred to as validators, commit a portion of their cryptoassets (the “stake”) to secure a blockchain by confirming transactions – and gain access to a recurring value stream of native tokens to compensate them for their work. Staking is a core energy-friendly feature of Proof-of-Stake (PoS) blockchains, and each blockchain network has its own set of staking requirements. BNB and ADA are the largest constituents of the index with weights of ~30% and ~20%, respectively.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
En ny krypto-ETN utgivet av 21Shares har varit möjlig att handla på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt sedan i onsdags.
21Shares Bitcoin Ethereum Core ETP erbjuder investerare enkel och effektiv tillgång till prestanda för en kryptokorg bestående av de två kryptovalutorna Bitcoin (BTC) och Ethereum (ETH). Viktningen av de två kryptotillgångarna baseras på deras nuvarande börsvärde och justeras månadsvis. Denna krypto-ETN är 100 procent säkrad av de underliggande tillgångarna BTC och ETH.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.
Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF & ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 378 ETFer, 198 ETCer och 254 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på mer än €19 miljarder är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.
WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend GrowthUCITSETF EUR Hedged Acc (WGRU ETF) med ISIN IE0007M3MLF3, försöker spåra WisdomTree Global Developed Quality Dividend Growth (EUR Hedged)-index. WisdomTree Global Developed Quality Dividend Growth (EUR Hedged)-index spårar utdelningsbetalande aktier på utvecklade marknader med tillväxtegenskaper. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Indexet är ett fundamentalt viktat index. Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR).
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,43 % p.a. WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend GrowthUCITSETF EUR Hedged Acc är den enda ETF som följer WisdomTree Global Developed Quality Dividend Growth (EUR Hedged) index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
WisdomTree Global Quality Dividend GrowthUCITSETF EUR Hedged Acc är en mycket liten ETF med 4 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 20 mars 2023 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Fonden strävar efter att spåra pris- och avkastningsutvecklingen, före avgifter och utgifter, för WisdomTree Global Developed Quality Dividend Growth Index. Andelsklassen strävar efter att leverera exponering mot indexet samtidigt som den neutraliserar exponeringen mot fluktuationer i euron genom att implementera en valutasäkringsmetod. Läs mer om indexet som GGRE är designat för att spåra.
Varför investera?
Få tillgång till högkvalitativa, utdelningsväxande företag från globala utvecklade marknader som uppfyller WisdomTrees ESG-kriterier (environmental, social and governance)
Dra nytta av riskscreening för att utesluta företag baserat på egenutvecklade kvalitet och momentum
Direktavkastning och inkomstpotential kan vara högre än ett börsvärdesindex
Använd som ett komplement till globala högavkastande utdelningsstrategier eller som en ersättning för aktiva tillväxt- eller kvalitetsstrategier med stora bolag
Valutavolatiliteten minimeras genom användning av valutaterminskontrakt
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has forced European leaders to reconsider their defence capabilities. Trump’s administration has stated that it expects European countries to take on a greater role in their own security, as well as giving overt signals that it has less interest in the future of the continent’s security. In a worst-case scenario, there are growing fears about the US’ continued commitment to the NATO alliance. This article will outline the scale of the task ahead for Europe to prepare for a world where it can potentially no longer rely on the US for its security.
Europe alone?
First, it is worth noting that the prospect of a US pullout of NATO remains unlikely. While members of Trump’s cabinet have endorsed a withdrawal, the president himself has not. Key members of Trump’s cabinet such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio appear to remain strong believers in the alliance. Crucially, in 2023, the US Congress passed a law requiring a two-thirds majority vote before any President can withdraw from the alliance. Given the current makeup of Congress, such a vote passing seems unlikely.
However, European leaders are taking the risk seriously. Even if the worst-case scenario of a total US withdrawal from NATO does not come to pass, the prospect can no longer be discounted. At the same time, even if the US continues as a member, there is a growing expectation of Europe to develop its own defence capabilities. There is, therefore, a renewed sense among European leaders that they must develop credible security deterrence in the absence of the US.
What is needed?
A recent analysis by Bruegel and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy provides insights into the measures Europe would need to undertake to deter potential aggression from Russia in the absence of US support. [1]
First, soldiers. Currently, the US has around 100,000 troops stationed on the continent, with NATO military planners assuming an additional 200,000 would be rapidly dispatched to Europe in the event of conflict.
A theoretical absence of US support, therefore, means considering how Europe may replace these 300,000 soldiers. Europe, including the UK, currently has almost 1.5 million active-duty military personnel. In theory, this makes replacing the 300,000 US troops easy enough. However, as analysis by Bruegel notes: “The combat power of 300,000 US troops is substantially greater than the equivalent number of European troops distributed over 29 national armies.”
A crucial weakness of European troops will be fragmentation. A Europe without US support, therefore, is faced with two choices: replace the 300,000 with substantially more soldiers – to offset the fragmented weakness – or rapidly enhance cooperation.
The challenge is also stark when it comes to equipment. The Bruegel analysis claims that preventing a rapid Russian breakthrough in the Baltic states would, at a minimum, require “1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles and 700 artillery pieces (155mm howitzers and multiple rocket launchers)”. To put this into perspective, that is more firepower than the French, German, Italian, and British land forces combined. And that is just for providing a credible deterrence in the Baltic states.
European states will also have to invest substantially in developing their own transport, missile, drone, communications, and intelligence capabilities.
Historic underspend
Future-proofing European defence against a potential absence of US support, therefore, is a tremendous task. Achieving anything approaching what is needed to shore up the continent’s defence will cost tremendous sums.
This has been made harder by the underspending on defence among European NATO members over the past few decades. The euphoria of the post-Cold War era saw European governments slash their defence spending. Money that had previously been spent on military security could be reallocated to spending on social security.
With Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, NATO took steps to reverse this, principally by setting a defence spending target of 2% of GDP for members. But very few NATO members actually reached this target. As late as 2021, just 6 members of NATO spent 2% or more on defence.
However, as the graph below shows, the number of NATO members hitting the 2% target has rapidly ramped up, with 23 members now hitting the 2% target.
Source: NATO, June 2024. Data excludes the U.S. For illustrative purposes only. Chart displays expected data.
Yet the historic underspending by Europe leaves a hole in European defence capabilities. Figures from Exante Data shows that the cumulative underspend since 2014, relative to the 2% targets, among European NATO members equals €850bn. [2]
The road to 5%
The task for both readying Europe for defence challenges in a world without US support, as well as addressing the historic underfunding of European defence, will require defence spending rising significantly above 2% of GDP.
Currently, European (and Canada) NATO members spend, on average, around 2% of GDP on defence. If NATO ex-USA members were to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP, what would this look like? If certain assumptions are made, we can map out the bullish and bearish scenarios for NATO defence spending.
In our bull case scenario, we assume NATO ex-US defence budgets to increase to 5% of GDP by 2029, while assuming equipment spending as % of total NATO budget growing by 1% per year. It also includes assumptions of GDP growth per year standing at 2%.
In this scenario, equipment expenditure would increase by $350billion, over half the total revenue generated by defence companies in 2023.
Meanwhile, in our bear case scenario, equipment expenditure still grows by almost $100billion over the period. This bear case scenario assumes NATO ex-US defence budgets grow to 3.5% by 2029, with equipment expenditure remaining steady as a percentage of defence spending (31.6%) and GDP growth of 1% per year. This would see additional equipment expenditure increase by $92billion.
Source: NATO, HANetf analysis. Charts display projected data. For illustrative purposes only. Additional sources available upon request.
The Future of Defence
While the complete withdrawal of the US from NATO is a hypothetical scenario, these estimates underscore the significant investments and structural changes Europe would need to implement to maintain a credible defence posture independently.
Future of Defence UCITSETF (ASWC) seeks to provide exposure to the companies generating revenue from NATO and NATO+ ally defence and cyber defence spending. The “NATO screen” seeks to align with the values of investors who may have concerns about defence investing, but cannot ignore the current political climate, and therefore seek a smarter and more considered approach.
NATO is a defensive alliance and itself states that “deterrence and defence is one of its core tasks” – focusing on companies operating in NATO allied countries limits the possibility of constituents of the ETF being companies operating in countries that could one day be adversaries to the alliance.
Key Risks
• Thematic ETFs are exposed to a limited number of sectors and thus the investment will be concentrated and may experience high volatility.
• Investors’ capital is fully at risk and may not get back the amount originally invested.
• Exchange rates can have a positive or negative effect on returns.
• For a complete overview of all the risks, please refer to the “Risk Factors” in the Prospectus.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, SAVR och Avanza.