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Crypto Outlook 25 + Nov. market update and perf attrib of our ETPs

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Prior to my regular monthly crypto update, I am pleased to share few things today, the day that Bitcoin broke 100k USD!

Prior to my regular monthly crypto update, I am pleased to share few things today, the day that Bitcoin broke 100k USD!

Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index Europe ETP (“HDX1”) has won the Digital Assets ETP of the Year award at the ETF Stream Awards 2024! This prestigious recognition places HASH among the best, celebrating its excellence in the European ETF ecosystem.

In addition, we have published our perspectives and outlook for next year: Hashdex 2025 Crypto Investment Oulook – Into the Mainstream.

In this report you will find valuable insights from our team:

• Crypto´s shot: The plan is to fan this spark into a flame – A note from CEO Marcelo Sampaio

• 2025, the Year of Generalisation: Institutional adoption, regulatory advancements, and a surge in opportunities – Samir Kerbage, CIO

• An Ocean of Opportunities: Growing integration of crypto into traditional finance and the digital economy – Pedro Lapenta, Head of Research

• Bitcoin Takes the Leap: On its way to being recognized as a store of value, with record inflows into ETFs – Lucas Santana, Research Analyst

• The Next ”Killer App” and Blockchain Innovations: Stablecoins, scalability, and decentralized applications – Yuri Alter, Research Analyst

• Macro and Institutional Context: Bitcoin halving, demand shock, and a pro-crypto environment in the United States – João Marco Cunha, Head of Portfolio Management

Happy to organise a call with our Research to discuss further about it and share our views.

Following with our November crypto market update and performance attributions of our Crypto Index ETPs.

One thing to note that we have constantly said: Crypto is more than Bitcoin, thus over the long run we are conviced Index investing is the way to go… In the current environment this crypto index investment case is stronger than ever!

See our Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HDX1) and Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HDXM) vs iShares Bitcoin ETF since the US elections 505/11 to 04/12, source Bloomberg):

Hashdex Crypto Index ETPs: performances (USD) as of end of November 24

Beta Index ETP – Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH or HDX1) (largest Crypto Index ETP in Europe): November: +45.7%, YTD +111.62%, 12M +146.42%.

• Smart-Beta Index ETP – Crypto Momentum Index ETP (HAMO or HDXM): November: +62.6%, YTD 70.4%, 12M +127.3%.

Market Update – November 24

November marked a historic month for crypto assets. The Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) closed the month with an unprecedented gain of 45.7%, driven by Bitcoin’s rally to new all-time highs and an even stronger performance from smaller-cap crypto assets. Bitcoin surged 38%, surpassing $75,000 the day after Trump’s victory and nearing $100,000 by the end of the month. This incredible performance signals the market’s optimism toward the election of a pro-crypto government in the U.S.

However, Bitcoin’s performance was only part of the story. Altcoins significantly outperformed, as Trump’s victory was interpreted as a signal for regulatory relief and institutional expansion into crypto. XRP and Cardano led the charge, skyrocketing 274% and 219%, respectively. Other notable performers included Solana (+125%), Ethereum (+65%), and Algorand (+210%), all benefiting from renewed optimism and increased adoption across their ecosystems. These results highlight the widespread rally across different segments of the crypto market, underscoring the depth and breadth of November’s momentum.

Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) relative to other asset class in November 24

Source: Hashdex, as of 30/11/24, HAMO for Crypto Momentum Index, the underlying of HAMO ETP.

In comparison to traditional markets, the NCI’s 45.7% gain dwarfed the returns of the S&P 500 (+4.2%) and Nasdaq 100 (+6.5%), both of which saw solid but comparatively modest growth following the U.S. election. This month’s results highlight the NCI’s capacity to deliver outsized returns during periods of favorable macroeconomic and political conditions.

Performance attribution:

Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI)
The NCI’s exceptional performance in November was broad-based, with every constituent delivering positive returns. While Bitcoin (+38%) anchored the index, smaller assets delivered extraordinary gains. XRP (+274%) and Cardano (+219%) were the standouts, benefiting from the perception of regulatory relief under a pro-crypto administration. Other notable contributors included Solana (+125%), Algorand (+210%), and Ethereum (+65%), reflecting the strength of the altcoin market. They were the real driver of the index’s outperformance.

It is important to highlight the diversification role. In November, the NCI outperformed Bitcoin due to its basket containing other crypto assets that delivered better performance. As such, the index is designed to capture the overall development of the market rather than focusing solely on a single asset.

Source: Hashdex, as of 30/11/24.

Crypto Momentum Factor Index

The Crypto Momentum Factor Index gained an impressive 62.5%, driven by its heavy weighting toward high-performing altcoins. Cardano, Hedera, and Algorand were the top performers, with returns exceeding 200%. TRON (TRX), the largest-weighted asset in the index, rose by 21.9%, providing more modest but steady gains.

Source: Hashdex, as of 30/11/24.

Correlation (3m) to traditional asset classes

Source: Hashdex, as of 30/11/24. NCI for Nasdaq Crypto Index.

Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP

Largest Crypto Index ETP in Europe, AUM ~$630m

ISIN: CH1184151731 / Tickers: HASH (SIX and Euronext) or HDX1 (Xetra) – tradable in USD, EUR, CHF and GBP

Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP

ISIN: CH1218734544 / Tickers: HAMO (SIX and Euronext) or HDXM (Xetra) – tradable in USD, EUR, CHF and GBP

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VLED ETF ger exponering mot aktier med låg volatilitet

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BNP Paribas Easy ESG Low Volatility Europe UCITS ETF (VLED ETF) med ISINLU1481201025, försöker följa BNP Paribas Low Vol Europe ESG-index. BNP Paribas Low Vol Europe ESG-index följer europeiska aktier med låg volatilitet. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

BNP Paribas Easy ESG Low Volatility Europe UCITS ETF (VLED ETF) med ISINLU1481201025, försöker följa BNP Paribas Low Vol Europe ESG-index. BNP Paribas Low Vol Europe ESG-index följer europeiska aktier med låg volatilitet. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,31 % per år. BNP Paribas Easy ESG Low Volatility Europe UCITS ETF är den billigaste ETF som följer BNP Paribas Low Vol Europe ESG-index. Denna ETF replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet syntetiskt med en swap. Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

BNP Paribas Easy ESG Low Volatility Europe UCITS ETF är en mycket liten ETF med 8 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 31 januari 2017 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.

Handla VLED ETF

BNP Paribas Easy ESG Low Volatility Europe UCITS ETF (VLED ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Euronext Paris.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURVLED
Stuttgart Stock ExchangeEURVLED
Euronext ParisEURVLED
SIX Swiss ExchangeEURVLED
XETRAEURVLED

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How are investors using gold?

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36% of 800 professional investors surveyed by WisdomTree noted ‘diversification’ as their primary reason for holding gold[1]. Our analysis shows that gold has a low correlation with both equities and bonds and, thus, should contribute strongly to a diversification effort.

36% of 800 professional investors surveyed by WisdomTree noted ‘diversification’ as their primary reason for holding gold[1]. Our analysis shows that gold has a low correlation with both equities and bonds and, thus, should contribute strongly to a diversification effort.

Figure 1: Correlations between assets

CommodityMSCI World All CountryS&P 500Global Aggregate BondGold
Commodity1.00    
MSCI World All Country0.431.00   
S&P 5000.330.941.00  
Global Aggregate Bond0.240.360.271.00 
Gold0.370.120.020.411.00

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree, Monthly data from November 1990 to November 2024. Commodity is Bloomberg Commodity Index, MSCI World All Country is a equity index, S&P 500 is a US equity index, Global Aggregate Bond is the Bloomberg GlobalAgg Index covering government, corporate and securitized fixed income, Gold is spot gold prices. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

Gold behaves very differently to other assets. On the one hand, it is a defensive asset, often competing with bonds as a safe harbour against broader market volatility. On the other hand, it has cyclical traits because it rises in times of inflation, which is often generated in periods of strong economic growth. This duality of gold helps explain its low correlation with traditional assets.

Our survey respondents flagged ‘inflation hedge’ as the second most popular reason to hold gold (35%), followed by ‘financial market volatility hedge’ (31%) and ‘geopolitical volatility hedge’ (27%)[2].

Optimal holding of gold in a portfolio

Putting gold into a portfolio of other assets can increase a portfolio’s Sharpe ratio[3] and reduce worst 12-month performances[4]. We illustrate with an example based on data from 1973 to 2024.

  1. We start with a portfolio of bonds (60%) and equities (40%) and no gold: that is the 0 point on the horizontal axis. The Sharpe ratio of this portfolio is 0.41 and the worst 12-month performance is -17%.
  2. As we move along the horizontal axis we introduce some gold to the portfolio. The remainder of the portfolio maintains a 60/40 ratio of bonds to equities.
  3. As we increase gold holdings, Sharpe ratios rise and worst 12-month performances decline, up to a point (before they deteriorate again).
  4. The maximum Sharpe ratio (portfolio A) is achieved with 13% gold (where the remainder of the portfolio is 52% bonds and 35% equities). The Sharpe ratio is 0.45 in this portfolio.
  5. The minimum worst 12-month performance (portfolio B) is achieved with 30% gold (where the remainder of the portfolio is 42% bonds and 28% equities). The worst 12-month performance is -13% in this portfolio.

Figure 2: Optimal gold holdings

Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. Period January 1973 to September 2024. Calculations are based on monthly returns in USD. The portfolio is rebalanced semi-annually. Equities are proxied by the MSCI World Gross Total Return Index and Fixed Income is proxied by the Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Total Return Index. You cannot invest directly in an index. Above numbers include backtested data. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

Our survey indicates that the mean average holding of gold is only 5.42%[5], well below the optimal to maximise the Sharpe ratio. In fact, less than 14% of investors surveyed[6] hold enough gold to maximise their Sharpe ratio (assuming equities and bonds are the mainstay of their portfolio).

Hedging risks

We established that investors hold gold to hedge various risks, but what is the market’s perception of those risks today and how could they evolve?

Financial market risks

Several metrics gauge market anxiety, including the VIX[7] and MOVE[8] alongside direct investor surveys. At present, none of these measures indicate immediate concern. However, risks can escalate rapidly, as seen in August 2024, when a yen carry trade unwind sparked fears across global financial markets.

With various equity indices reaching all-time highs—and concerns that these gains are heavily concentrated—many investors are seeking ways to hedge against a potential market reversal. Gold serves as a key tool in this context.

Economic risks

The global economy has shown resilience through the past cycle, with the likelihood of a recession in the next year considered low[9]. However, policy uncertainty remains a significant concern for many investors.

In the United States, a new administration has risen to power with a strong focus on trade policies. Should President-Elect Trump impose new tariffs, rather than using them as negotiation tools, it could pose challenges to global economic growth. In this scenario, gold may become a preferred asset for hedging these risks.

Geopolitical risks

Throughout 2024, gold prices were supported by heightened geopolitical tensions. The Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas/Hezbollah conflicts dominated investor concerns. More recently, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria has created uncertainty, particularly for Russia, a key ally of Assad. Russia’s military bases in Syria now face an uncertain future, raising concerns about potential escalations.

In November 2024, Ukraine’s use of US and UK-supplied long-range missiles prompted retaliatory strikes from Russia. Coupled with amendments to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, fears of further escalation remain.

President-Elect Trump has promised a swift resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, achieving this without significant concessions from Ukraine and NATO seems unlikely, suggesting that geopolitical risks may persist.

Iran, another key supporter of the Assad regime, faces a similarly precarious situation. The weakening of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Assad alliance undermines Iran’s regional influence. Additionally, the US may enforce sanctions against Iran more rigorously, which could prompt unpredictable responses from Tehran.

Despite speculative positioning in gold futures slipping slightly—from over 300,000 contracts net long in early October 2024 to just below that level today—the ongoing geopolitical tensions may drive positioning higher once again.

Conclusions

Professional investors rightly view gold as a hedge against inflation, financial market turbulence, economic stress, and geopolitical chaos. While some of these risks may not be at the forefront of investors’ concerns today, hedging against the potential escalation of tail risks remains highly valuable.

We also align with the surveyed investors’ belief that gold serves as an excellent portfolio diversifier. Our analysis confirms that incorporating gold into a portfolio enhances overall outcomes, improving returns while effectively managing risk.

This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

[1] WisdomTree Pan European Professional Investor Survey, June-July 2024, 800 respondents, conducted by Censuswide.

[2] Ibid.
[3] The Sharpe ratio compares the return of an investment with its risk. It’s a mathematical expression of the insight that excess returns over a period of time may signify more volatility and risk, rather than investing skill.

[4] Similar risk concept to drawdowns but rather than look at peak to trough performance, we look at fixed 12-month declines.

[5] WisdomTree Pan European Professional Investor Survey, June-July 2024, 800 respondents, conducted by Censuswide.

[6] Ibid.

[7] The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a market-implied measure of the volatility of the US equity market.

[8] Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) index is a market-implied measure of the volatility of the US bond market.

[9] Bloomberg’s November/December surveys of professional economists shows the following (average) recession probabilities: US 25%; Euro Area 30%; China 10%; Japan 30%; UK 30%.

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JRED ETF köper aktier i europeiska företag med höga ESG-betyg

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JPMorgan Europe Research Enhanced Index Equity (ESG) UCITS ETF EUR (dist) (JRED ETF) med ISIN IE000WGK3YY5, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

JPMorgan Europe Research Enhanced Index Equity (ESG) UCITS ETF EUR (dist) (JRED ETF) med ISIN IE000WGK3YY5, är en aktivt förvaltad ETF.

JP Morgan Europe Research Enhanced Index Equity (ESG) Strategin investerar i företag som antingen kommer från ett europeiskt land eller bedriver de flesta av sina ekonomiska aktiviteter i Europa. Denna fond strävar efter att generera en högre avkastning än MSCI Europe. Dessutom undviker fondförvaltningen företag vars ESG-prestation har en negativ inverkan på verksamheten eller vars affärspraxis inte överensstämmer med fondförvaltningens standarder.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,25 % p.a. JPMorgan Europe Research Enhanced Index Equity (ESG) UCITS ETF EUR (dist) är den billigaste ETF som följer JP Morgan Europe Research Enhanced Index Equity (ESG) index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).

JPMorgan Europe Research Enhanced Index Equity (ESG) UCITS ETF EUR (dist) är en liten ETF med tillgångar på 42 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 15 september 2021 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Investeringsmål

Delfonden strävar efter att uppnå en långsiktig avkastning som överstiger MSCI Europe Index (Total Return Net) (”riktmärket”) genom att aktivt investera i huvudsak i en portfölj av europeiska företag.

Handla JRED ETF

JPMorgan Europe Research Enhanced Index Equity (ESG) UCITS ETF EUR (dist) (JRED ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURJRED
Frankfurt Stock ExchangeEURJRED
London Stock ExchangeGBXJRDE
London Stock ExchangeEURJRED
London Stock ExchangeUSDJERD
XETRAEURJRED

Största innehav

NamnISINLandVikt %
NOVO NORDISK A/S-B /DKK/DK0062498333Danmark4,43%
ASML HOLDING NV /EUR/NL0010273215Holland4,06%
NESTLE SA-REG /CHF/CH0038863350USA3,22%
ASTRAZENECA PLC /GBP/GB0009895292Storbritannien2,81%
SHELL PLC-NEW /GBP/GB00BP6MXD84USA2,78%
LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS /EUR/FR0000121014Frankrike2,40%
ROCHE HOLDING AG-GENUSSC /CHF/CH0012032048USA2,01%
SCHNEIDER ELEC SA /EUR/FR0000121972USA1,98%
ALLIANZ SE REGISTERED /EUR/DE0008404005Tyskland1,78%
NOVARTIS AG-REG /CHF/CH0012005267Schweiz1,72%

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