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Crypto Market Compass 24 June 2024

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Crypto Market Compass 24 June 2024 Last week, cryptoassets underperformed again as global crypto ETP flows experienced the 2nd highest weekly net outflows on record

• Last week, cryptoassets underperformed again as global crypto ETP flows experienced the 2nd highest weekly net outflows on record

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has decreased and signals a slightly bearish sentiment

• Despite increasing bearishness in crypto markets, BTC options still imply an elevated level of complacency among crypto investors; an increase in risk aversion in BTC options could signal a more sustainable tactical bottom

Chart of the Week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets underperformed traditional assets like equities and bonds as global crypto ETP flows experienced the 2nd highest weekly net outflows on record.

We have recently highlighted the increasing macro risks that could be one of the reasons for the increasing risk aversion in crypto markets.

That being said, although Cryptoasset Sentiment has indeed declined, there are still some “pockets” of complacency visible. Most importantly, BTC options still only signal a slight increase in risk aversion as implied volatilities and put-call volume ratios continue to be relatively low (Chart-of-the-Week).

BTC option indicators are one of the market segments we are watching to assess a more sustainable tactical bottom in Bitcoin and cryptoassets more broadly.

Meanwhile, major US equity indices continued to rallye to new all-time highs despite declining market breadth and deteriorating macro fundamentals.

In the context of macro fundamentals, the decline in lumber prices is particularly concerning as lumber prices are regarded as one of the high-frequency leading indicators for the US housing market and the overall US economy.

The continued decline in lumber prices implies that US housing data like building permits and pending home sales will likely continue to surprise to the downside.

Since these indicators are long leading indicators for the US economy as well, we think that US recession risks continue to increase significantly.

The reason why this is relevant for cryptoasset investors is the fact that changes in global growth expectations continue to be the dominant macro factor for Bitcoin’s performance and correlations between the S&P 500 and major cryptoassets like

Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to be relatively high at around ~0.4 over the past 3 months.

This implies that any kind of US equity market correction (on account of rising US recession risks) would most likely affect Bitcoin and cryptoassets negatively in the short term.

It is important to note that the positive news flow as so far failed to reverse global crypto ETP flows in general and Bitcoin ETF flows in the US in particular. For instance, we have seen increasing bullish news flow on the corporate adoption side for Bitcoin this week.

Microstrategy (MSTR) has announced that it has purchased additional 11,931 BTC for ~786 mn USD last week. Besides, a cryptic tweet by Dell’s founder Michael Dell has fuelled speculation that Dell – the company or the person – might already be acquiring bitcoins.

Because Cryptoasset Sentiment and global crypto ETP flows tend to be highly correlated with cross asset risk appetite, we expect that these two variables continue to stay weak until risk appetite returns to markets more broadly.

We reiterate our stance that we continue to believe that the recent decline is an intermediate correction in the bull market and not a cyclical peak.

For this reason, our advice is to use any macro weakness as an opportunity to increase exposure ahead of major events in the coming months.

One of the main reasons for this is that, as we mentioned in one of our Crypto Market Espresso reports, we continue to expect the bitcoin halving to have a positive impact on performance from the summer onwards.

Moreover, Bloomberg analysts expect US spot Ethereum ETFs to debut in early July already, earlier than expected, which could bring additional flows into cryptoassets again as outlined here. Big crypto investors like Pantera have already indicated to invest up to 100 mn USD into these new Ethereum products once they have been launched.

In addition, as recently noted here, monetary policy moves by the SNB, ECB, Bank of Canada suggest that the liquidity tide is already reversing, which will undoubtedly be a major tailwind for bitcoin and other cryptoassets in the medium to long term. A reversal in the Fed’s monetary policy is also highly plausible in the event of a likely US recession.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, TRON, XRP, and Bitcoin were the relative outperformers.

Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has declined again compared to the prior week, with only 15% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. This is consistent with the reversal in outperformance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin on a weekly basis.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has decreased and signals a slightly bearish sentiment.

At the moment, 4 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

Last week, there were significant reversals to the downside in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index and in the BTC long futures liquidation dominance.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index signals ”Neutral” sentiment as of this morning.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets has increased sharply from its recent lows. This means that altcoins have started to trade a bit differently than Bitcoin over the past week.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has declined again compared to the week prior, with around 15% of our tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin on a weekly basis, which is consistent with the fact that Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin slightly last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin underperformance could signal declining appetite for risk at the moment.

Sentiment in traditional financial markets has increased slightly but remains close to the lowest levels since November 2023, judging by our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA).

Fund Flows

Last week, we saw significant net fund outflows from global crypto ETPs with around -745.3 mn USD in net outflows which was the second highest weekly net outflow on record.

Global Bitcoin ETPs saw net outflows of -739.0 mn USD last week, of which -544.1 mn USD (net) were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone. Outflows from Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs also picked up with -121.5 mn USD which contributed to the global rout as well.

The ETC Group Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) saw increasing net outflows equivalent to -30.0 mn USD while the ETC Group Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) saw sticky AuM last week.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw less intense net outflows compared to the week prior but still recorded -152.6 mn USD in net outflows last week.

Meanwhile, net outflows from global Ethereum ETPs also accelerated last week with net outflows totalling -135.2 mn USD. This was partially due to accelerating outflows from Hong Kong Ethereum ETFs which recorded -68.9 mn USD in net
outflows.

However, the ETC Group Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) defied negative market trends and continued to see net inflows of +0.3 mn USD last week. The ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) also saw minor net inflows last week (+0.2 mn USD).

In contrast, altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum continued to experience net inflows of around +8.0 mn USD last week.

The same is true for Thematic & basket crypto ETPs which saw a very significant reversal in net inflows of +120.8 mn USD, based on our calculations. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) saw neither in- nor outflows last week.

Meanwhile, global crypto hedge funds continued sail, the markets with an underweight exposure to Bitcoin. The beta of global crypto hedge funds’ performance stood at only 0.49 over the past 20 trading days.

On-Chain Data

Bitcoin on-chain continue to paint a rather bearish picture at the moment.

Net buying volumes on BTC spot exchanges continued to be negative, consistent with ongoing net outflows from global Bitcoin ETP and US spot Bitcoin ETFs. This is also evident in the widening negative Coinbase premium, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin prices on Coinbase and Binance. Since Coinbase tends to be dominated by larger investors, a negative premium to retail-dominated exchanges like Binance tends to be sign, of institutional selling. On a positive note, net selling pressure on exchanges seems to be declining gradually, measured by the cumulative volume delta.

Overall BTC exchange balances also increased over the past week on account of increasing whale exchange transfers. This has been holding up selling pressure on exchanges and is also consistent with the previous observations. Whales are defined as network entities that control at least 1,000 BTC. That being said, the absolute number of whales has stabilized last week, which is a positive sign.

However, OTC desk balances have surged significantly in a sign that institutional investors have transferred large amounts of bitcoin to OTC desks which also increases selling pressure. Some analysts have attributed this increase to increased transfers by BTC miners amid declining revenues post-Halving but aggregate BTC miner wallets continued to move sideways over the past 2 weeks which does not imply huge liquidations from miners.

Meanwhile, ETH exchange balances continue to drift lower and make fresh multi-year lows. Ethereum L2 metrics also continue to surprise to the upside with the number of weekly active users hitting a new all-time high last week.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, both BTC futures and perpetuals open interest increased into declining prices, which implies that futures have been adding shorts on a net basis as long futures liquidations dominated.

In this context, the perpetual funding rate across BTC exchanges briefly turned negative last week Friday in a sign that positioning in perpetual futures is becoming lopsided which would be an approaching sign of an imminent tactical bottom.

However, perpetual funding rates have not turned negative in a way that would qualify to be a reliable signal.

The Bitcoin futures basis rate also continued to decline throughout the week. At the time of writing, the basis rate stands at 10.1% p.a. which is still like levels last seen in mid-May.

Although the signals in favour of a tactical floor are increasing, BTC options still only signal a slight increase in risk aversion as implied volatilities and put-call volume ratios continue to be relatively low (Chart-of-the-Week).

BTC option indicators are one of the market segments we are watching to assess a more sustainable tactical bottom in Bitcoin and cryptoassets more broadly.

Bitcoin options’ open interest increased slightly over the course of last week. Since the put-call open interest ratio remained flat during that time frame, this implies that option traders have both added calls and put options proportionally last week.

The 25-delta BTC 1-month option skew continued to drift higher but is still lower than the levels seen in May or April where we saw a short-term bottom.

BTC option implied volatilities were relatively unchanged last week. Implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 46.4% p.a.

Bottom Line

• Last week, cryptoassets underperformed again as global crypto ETP flows experienced the 2nd highest weekly net outflows on record

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has decreased and signals a slightly bearish sentiment

• Despite increasing bearishness in crypto markets, BTC options still imply an elevated level of complacency among crypto investors; an increase in risk aversion in BTC options could signal a more sustainable tactical bottom

To read our Crypto Market Compass in full, please click the button below:

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved

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Fördelarna med ETF-investeringar

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Det finns många skäl att sätta börshandlade fonder i hjärtat av din investeringsstrategi när du jämför deras styrkor med alternativen. Vi tittar på fördelarna med ETF-investeringar.

Det finns många skäl att sätta börshandlade fonder i hjärtat av din investeringsstrategi när du jämför deras styrkor med alternativen. Vi tittar på fördelarna med ETF-investeringar.

ETFer har samlat flera biljoner i tillgångar under förvaltning sedan deras fördelar först kom till kunniga investerares kännedom i början av noughties. Deras popularitet och trovärdighet har bara ökat sedan dess. Vi förklarar varför både institutionella aktörer och gör-det-själv-investerare köper in sig på ETFer.

14 skäl till att köpa ETFer

  1. Enkelt: ETFer kan köpas och säljas på börsen som vilken annan aktie som helst.
  2. Kostnadseffektivt: Avgifterna är låga jämfört med aktiva fonder. Aktiva fonder som grupp misslyckas med att slå marknaden på lång sikt efter kostnader som avgifter och skatter. Medan ETFer strävar efter att matcha marknadsavkastningen minus kostnader. Den negativa sammansättningseffekten av aktiva pengars högre kostnader innebär att motsvarande ETFer vanligtvis vinner över tid.
  3. Diversifiering och tidshantering: Att äga en ETF ger dig exponering mot dussintals, hundratals eller till och med tusentals värdepapper som täcker alla värdefulla tillgångsklasser. Det är en omedelbar lösning på problemet med att ständigt försöka välja vinnare och förlorare. Istället för att försöka förutsäga marknaden äger du helt enkelt marknaden.
  4. Transparent: Du vet alltid vad en ETF gör. Det är utformat för att replikera avkastningen från dess angivna marknadsindex – så din avkastning bör matcha det indexets prestanda efter kostnader och tracking error. Du kan kontrollera ditt indexs innehav och exponeringar när som helst på dess webbsida.
  5. Val och kontroll: Det finns över 1 600 ETFer noterade på London Stock Exchange. Tillsammans gör de att du kan investera i alla länder, regioner, sektorer och tillgångsklasser som du behöver. Från etiska investeringar till AI, från ädelmetaller till genomik – ETFer gör att du kan investera i hela världens framtid.
  6. Säkert: ETFer tillhandahålls av stora och välkapitaliserade finansiella institutioner som BlackRock, Vanguard, HSBC och State Street. I den osannolika händelsen att något av dessa företag går i konkurs, finns det europeiska regler och kompensationssystem för att skydda dina tillgångar.
  7. Likvida: ETFer kan handlas när du vill under normala börstider. Jämför det med traditionella fonder som bara kan handlas en gång om dagen.
  8. Ultralåga handelsavgifter: Vissa mäklare erbjuder handel utan provision medan andra erbjuder mycket billiga vanliga investeringsplaner.
  9. Prisvärt: Bråkhandel innebär att du kan köpa en ETF från så lite som 1€ eller 1 pund eller till och med en krona hos vissa mäklare. Andra mäklare begär ett minimibidrag från 25€ / £25 eller 50€ / £50 per affär.
  10. Enkelt att förstå: Att investera i aktier är bäst att överlåta till proffsen, men även aktiva fonder kräver mycket forskning – och du är fortfarande aldrig säker på hur förvaltaren sköter dina pengar. Samtidigt är ETFer extremt enkla även för oerfarna investerare. Allt du behöver veta om en ETF publiceras på dess webbsida.
  11. Inkomstinvesteringar: Du kan leva på naturlig avkastning med en portfölj av ETFer med hög utdelning. Lägre kostnader innebär mer inkomster till dig.
  12. Vad du ser är vad du får: Priset på ETFer håller sig vanligtvis nära det faktiska värdet på deras tillgångar. Till skillnad från Investment Trusts, lider ETFer inte av den extra risken att handla till en premie eller rabatt på sina underliggande innehav.
  13. Lätt att jämföra: ETF-branschen har många marknadsaktörer som konkurrerar om att minska produktkostnaderna och lansera innovativa nya erbjudanden. Det finns gott om val och därför har vi fokuserat på att göra jämförelser snabbt och enkelt.
  14. Skattevänliga: De allra flesta ETFer kan ägas genom Investeringssparkonton eller kapitalförsäkringar, så dina vinster kan ackumuleras skattefritt.

Är ETFer alltid rätt val?

  • Kontanter: Om du vill ha kontanter är det vanligtvis bättre att använda ett sparkonto snarare än en penningmarknads-ETF. Ett konkurrenskraftigt inlåningskonto bör tjäna en högre ränta, det kommer inte att tillkomma några handelsavgifter och den maximala ersättningsnivån är högre för kontanter på banken jämfört med en ETF-leverantör.
  • Frestelse att överhandla: Många handlare (inklusive hedgefonder) använder ETFer. Men överdriven handel kan öka kostnaderna och potentiellt minska avkastningen. Vissa tycker att det är lättare att köpa och hålla med en mindre flexibel indexfond. Om det är du, kan en gammal skolans fond vara en bättre psykologisk passform.
  • Inte alltid billigare: Ibland är den lägsta kostnadsindexfonden en smula billigare än sin ETF-motsvarighet. Detta är något att hålla utkik efter på välbetjänade marknader som FTSE 100 trackers.
  • Högriskprodukter: Hävstångsbaserade och korta ETFer är högt specialiserade investeringar som huvudsakligen är avsedda för kortsiktig användning av institutionella aktörer. Investera bara i nischprodukter om du är helt säker på att du förstår riskerna.
  • Illikviditet: Även om de flesta ETFer är mycket likvida, kan vissa små och nischade ETFer handlas sällan. Låga handelsvolymer kan innebära en kostsam spread. En lämplig fond kan vara ett bättre alternativ.
  • Ingen överavkastning: En ETF strävar efter att matcha avkastningen från sitt index. Att investera dina pengar med en aktiv fondförvaltare kan fungera bättre med jämna mellanrum, speciellt om du har tur. Mot denna förhoppning står de fasta bevisen från ett flertal studier på att aktiva fonder misslyckas med att slå indexföljande produkter sammantaget.

Den avgörande fördelen

Ökningen i popularitet för ETFer är ingen tillfällighet. De flesta investerare tycker att en ETF-portfölj gör det möjligt för dem att enkelt genomföra sin investeringsstrategi – oavsett om de vill bygga upp välstånd eller leva på inkomster. Naturligtvis är det alltid bäst att göra din analys först. ETFmarknaden.se är ett bra sätt att börja sin resa på.

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CEBX ETF köper dollardenominerade fastränteobligationer

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iShares US Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Dist) (CEBX ETF) med ISIN IE00093SKUY4 mförsöker följa Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond (EUR Hedged)-index. Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond (EUR Hedged)-index följer obligationer med fast ränta i USD, inklusive statsobligationer, statsrelaterade, värdepapperiserade och företagsrelaterade värdepapper. Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR). Betyg: Investment Grade.

iShares US Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Dist) (CEBX ETF) med ISIN IE00093SKUY4 mförsöker följa Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond (EUR Hedged)-index. Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond (EUR Hedged)-index följer obligationer med fast ränta i USD, inklusive statsobligationer, statsrelaterade, värdepapperiserade och företagsrelaterade värdepapper. Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR). Betyg: Investment Grade.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. iShares US Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Dist) är den billigaste ETF som följer Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond (EUR Hedged) index. Denna ETF replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i ETFn delas ut till investerarna (halvårsvis).

iShares US Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Dist) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 0 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 21 februari 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Varför CEBX?

Diversifierad exponering mot den breda US-dollardenominerade obligationsmarknaden med investeringsgrad

Direktinvesteringar i stats-, statsrelaterade, företags- och värdepapperiserade obligationer

Obligationsexponering med investeringsgrad

Investeringsmål

Andelsklassen strävar efter att spåra utvecklingen av ett index som består av amerikanska dollar denominerade statsobligationer, statsrelaterade, företagsobligationer och värdepapperiserade obligationer.

Handla CEBX ETF

iShares US Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Dist) (CEBX ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURCEBX

Största innehav

EmittentVikt (%)
UNITED STATES TREASURY44.49
FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION11.71
GOVERNMENT NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION II5.71
FEDERAL HOME LOAN MORTGAGE CORPORATION5.08
UNIFORM MBS2.85
BANK OF AMERICA CORP0.59
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO0.56
MORGAN STANLEY0.43
INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT0.38
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY0.37

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Transforming DeFi: The Strategic Leap of Unichain

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Uniswap Labs announced Unichain, whose testnet launched on October 10 and mainnet is launching in November, relying on the tech infrastructure from Ethereum layer-2 Optimism's OP Stack, and block builder Flashbots.

• Uniswap Labs announced Unichain, whose testnet launched on October 10 and mainnet is launching in November, relying on the tech infrastructure from Ethereum layer-2 Optimism’s OP Stack, and block builder Flashbots.

• Unichain is a DeFi-specific scalability solution aiming to offer a universal liquidity hub, with an emphasis on transaction speed and superior security.

• Uniswap’s token UNI will be used, or staked, to validate Unichain transactions and earn part of the network’s sequencer fees – of which the stack will be decentralized using what’s known as the Unichain Validation Network.

• This is a key development, as it will transform UNI from a governance token into a utility token, thereby completely changing its investment case.

Uniswap is the crypto market’s largest decentralized exchange (DEX) and the pioneer of the crypto-native automated market maker (AMM), which later became an industry standard for most DEXs. While Uniswap has maintained over 46% of the market share, its dominance has been eaten away by emerging DEXs, as shown below in Figure 1, that offer revenue sharing with token holders rather than just for liquidity providers.

Figure 1 – Decentralized Exchanges Volume

Source: Dune

Driven by this increasing competition, Uniswap Labs revealed Unichain, a Layer 2 (L2) Superchain, built using OP Stack, which is a modular, open-source software stack developed by Optimism, one of Ethereum’s leading scalability solutions. The primary goal of the OP Stack is to create scalable, secure, and interoperable blockchains, with Unichain being a prime example.

What is Unichain?

In essence, it’s a DeFi-centric Ethereum scaling solution designed to cater to users’ financial activities. By integrating advanced cross-chain functionality through technologies like cross-chain intents (ERC-7683), which we’ll delve into later, and the LayerZero bridge, Unichain addresses key challenges in the DeFi ecosystem:

  1. Transaction Speed: Block times are reduced to one second, with plans for 250ms sub-blocks – faster than many other L2s.
  2. Cost Efficiency: Transaction costs are projected to decrease by approximately 95% compared to Ethereum’s Layer 1, as can be observed below in Figure 2.
  3. Cross-Chain Liquidity: Unichain aims to create a unified ecosystem for seamless multi-chain asset trading, all whilst abstracting the technology’s complexity away from the user. Otherwise, users are required to utilize third-party bridging solutions and asset wrappers, which exposes them to heightened smart-contract risk.
  4. Incentive Structure: A robust reward system that compensates both token holders and liquidity providers for their liquidity and security contributions.

While Unichain aims to tackle liquidity fragmentation across networks, this gradual process will stretch beyond the initial mainnet launch. The protocol will need to incentivize users and liquidity providers to migrate their liquidity to Unichain as the premier network over time. Thus, liquidity fragmentation could worsen in the short term as this reorganization takes place.

Figure 2 – Average transaction speed vs. Fees of Ethereum’s Layer 2s

Source: Dune

What makes Unichain stand out?

  1. Interoperable and a Multi-Chain Cohesive Ecosystem:
    The quest of lowering transaction costs came at the expense of fragmented liquidity, complicating the user experience. Unichain is designed to simplify swapping across different chains. They worked with OP Labs, the builders behind Optimism (Ethereum’s third largest L2 by TVL of $680M), to make it easy to send messages between L2s in the Optimism Superchain using the network’s stack native interoperability technology. For other chains, Uniswap Labs is improving cross-chain compatibility through initiatives like the Cross-Chain Intents standard, known as ERC-7683.

In this view, Unichain’s Total Addressable Market can have a target of $4.9B, illustrated below in Figure 3.

Figure 3 – UNI’s TVL Across Chains

Source: DeFiLlama

What is ERC-7683, and what is its impact?

Introduced in April 2024, the Cross-Chain Intents standard enhances blockchain interoperability by standardizing off-chain messages and on-chain settlement. This framework simplifies cross-network transactions for users, allowing them to submit a general request—such as swapping Token X on Ethereum for Token Y on Arbitrum—without needing to choose specific bridges, DEXs or solutions. Once a request is made, specialized agents called ”fillers” compete to execute the transaction efficiently. This approach streamlines the process, making it easier for users to trade across several networks like they would in a traditional fintech application that has multiple currency accounts, all whilst fostering competition among service providers across the crypto ecosystem. This will ultimately improve the user experience, which is one of the most important factors in driving mainstream adoption.

  1. Vertical Integration:

Unichain represents a strategic shift in Uniswap’s operational model, enhancing its control over revenue streams and transaction processing. By evolving into an execution network similar to Base and Arbitrum, Unichain now captures additional value through:

o Transaction / Gas Fees – previously allocated to the networks Uniswap lives on. As shown below in Figure 4, Uniswap will be able to preserve about close to $374M in fees, once they’re able to settle these transitions on its own network.

Figure 4 – Uniswap Economics by Blockchain

Source: TheDeFiReport, TokenTerminal

o Swap fees: allocated to liquidity providers (LPs), which had previously been managed and distributed to contributors.

o Front-end fees: the protocol’s only source of revenue that it retains. It has already been in place and managed by the exchange’s front-end interface, as shown below in Figure 5. Uniswap has generated close to $50M in front-end fees since inception.

o Maximal Extractable Value (MEV): previously absorbed by the networks Uniswap was deployed on. Unichain could retain a significant portion of the $83B paid on Ethereum if they had internalized MEV from the offset, as seen below in Figure 5.

Figure 5 – Total Volume of Sandwich attacks on Ethereum, via Uniswap

Source: Dune

This transformation allows Uniswap to optimize its revenue structure and maintain greater oversight of the entire transaction lifecycle, from execution to settlement. The new model not only improves Uniswap’s economic efficiency but also positions it to offer enhanced services and potentially lower costs for users, all while retaining more value within its ecosystem. Uniswap’s substantial DEX volume across multiple networks, as illustrated in Figure 6, positions the new network for significant growth. By consolidating this activity within its ecosystem, Unichain stands to benefit from a powerful network effects.

Figure 6 – Uniswap Volume Across Different Chains

Source: Dune

Unichain’s architecture also enhances the platform’s capabilities with features like fair transaction ordering, which helps prevent market manipulation strategies such as front-running and back-running. Additionally, by utilizing a dedicated validator set on Ethereum, Unichain can effectively mitigate toxic flows, thereby reducing Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) losses, which we talk about next, helping to foster a fairer trading environment.

  1. Lower MEV Loss: Unichain’s collaboration with Flashbots introduces an advanced block production system that enhances market efficiency and mitigates MEV concerns. By utilizing Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs), this system achieves faster block times, improved transaction ordering transparency, and reduced failed transactions. While TEEs do not replace decentralized consensus, they provide enhanced trust and security compared to traditional block builders. This approach effectively limits validators’ ability to manipulate transaction order for profit, creating a more equitable environment.
  2. Unichain Validation Network: UNI stakers will form a decentralized network of full nodes that replace the actions of the centralized sequencer. Overall, they will provide several key benefits, including:

o Enhanced Decentralization: An additional layer of security that allows independent nodes of operators (token stakers) to verify the state of the blockchain – helping to reduce the risks associated with single sequencer architecture commonly found in other L2 solutions.

o Faster Finality: Quicker settlement of cross-chain transactions, driven by the flashblock technology.

o Increased Token Utility: Instead of simply serving as a governance token, UNI will now play a critical part in the ecosystem. Validators will have to stake the token to participate in the network validation – allowing token holders and not just liquidity providers to earn rewards.

So, what does that mean for Uniswap, Ethereum and the other L2s Uniswap was deployed on?

Unichain’s launch will introduce seamless cross-chain swaps directly through the Uniswap Interface and Wallet, significantly enhancing accessibility to cross-chain markets and their liquidity.

The platform will utilize UNI tokens for network security, with staking occurring on the Ethereum mainnet. This integration increases UNI’s utility and potential demand. However, it’s important to note that the staking yield from transaction fees is distinct from the pending fee switch affecting the broader Uniswap community. Both mechanisms serve to incentivize token holders.

Unichain’s introduction may signal a shift towards app-specific chains retaining substantial user activity. This could create a network effect, attracting more users and liquidity and potentially drawing in other DeFi protocols focused on multi-network presence rather than developing proprietary chains. As seen below, Uniswap has about 14M cumulative users spread across the multiple networks it is deployed on, depicted below in Figure 7. Thus, consolidating this user base could create an unmatched DeFi hub.

Figure 7 – Uniswap Users and New Users

Source: Dune

For Ethereum, Unichain’s launch may lead to a reduction in revenue, as Uniswap has been a significant contributor to transaction fees on the mainnet. Consequently, this could further decrease Ethereum’s deflationary activity. However, if an explosion of activity occurs, we can expect a surge in the amount of ETH used by L2s to settle their activity on the mainnet.

To recap, Uniswap’s evolution into Unichain represents a pivotal shift for the UNI token, transforming it from a governance-focused asset into a multifaceted, value-generating instrument. This transition elevates UNI’s status in the crypto ecosystem, positioning it competitively alongside established proof-of-stake tokens like ETH.

What’s happening this week?

Source: Forex Factory, 21Shares

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

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The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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