• Last week, cryptoassets underperformed again as global crypto ETP flows experienced the 2nd highest weekly net outflows on record
• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has decreased and signals a slightly bearish sentiment
• Despite increasing bearishness in crypto markets, BTC options still imply an elevated level of complacency among crypto investors; an increase in risk aversion in BTC options could signal a more sustainable tactical bottom
Chart of the Week
Performance
Last week, cryptoassets underperformed traditional assets like equities and bonds as global crypto ETP flows experienced the 2nd highest weekly net outflows on record.
We have recently highlighted the increasing macro risks that could be one of the reasons for the increasing risk aversion in crypto markets.
That being said, although Cryptoasset Sentiment has indeed declined, there are still some “pockets” of complacency visible. Most importantly, BTC options still only signal a slight increase in risk aversion as implied volatilities and put-call volume ratios continue to be relatively low (Chart-of-the-Week).
BTC option indicators are one of the market segments we are watching to assess a more sustainable tactical bottom in Bitcoin and cryptoassets more broadly.
Meanwhile, major US equity indices continued to rallye to new all-time highs despite declining market breadth and deteriorating macro fundamentals.
In the context of macro fundamentals, the decline in lumber prices is particularly concerning as lumber prices are regarded as one of the high-frequency leading indicators for the US housing market and the overall US economy.
The continued decline in lumber prices implies that US housing data like building permits and pending home sales will likely continue to surprise to the downside.
Since these indicators are long leading indicators for the US economy as well, we think that US recession risks continue to increase significantly.
The reason why this is relevant for cryptoasset investors is the fact that changes in global growth expectations continue to be the dominant macro factor for Bitcoin’s performance and correlations between the S&P 500 and major cryptoassets like
Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to be relatively high at around ~0.4 over the past 3 months.
This implies that any kind of US equity market correction (on account of rising US recession risks) would most likely affect Bitcoin and cryptoassets negatively in the short term.
It is important to note that the positive news flow as so far failed to reverse global crypto ETP flows in general and Bitcoin ETF flows in the US in particular. For instance, we have seen increasing bullish news flow on the corporate adoption side for Bitcoin this week.
Microstrategy (MSTR) has announced that it has purchased additional 11,931 BTC for ~786 mn USD last week. Besides, a cryptic tweet by Dell’s founder Michael Dell has fuelled speculation that Dell – the company or the person – might already be acquiring bitcoins.
Because Cryptoasset Sentiment and global crypto ETP flows tend to be highly correlated with cross asset risk appetite, we expect that these two variables continue to stay weak until risk appetite returns to markets more broadly.
We reiterate our stance that we continue to believe that the recent decline is an intermediate correction in the bull market and not a cyclical peak.
For this reason, our advice is to use any macro weakness as an opportunity to increase exposure ahead of major events in the coming months.
One of the main reasons for this is that, as we mentioned in one of our Crypto Market Espresso reports, we continue to expect the bitcoin halving to have a positive impact on performance from the summer onwards.
Moreover, Bloomberg analysts expect US spot Ethereum ETFs to debut in early July already, earlier than expected, which could bring additional flows into cryptoassets again as outlined here. Big crypto investors like Pantera have already indicated to invest up to 100 mn USD into these new Ethereum products once they have been launched.
In addition, as recently noted here, monetary policy moves by the SNB, ECB, Bank of Canada suggest that the liquidity tide is already reversing, which will undoubtedly be a major tailwind for bitcoin and other cryptoassets in the medium to long term. A reversal in the Fed’s monetary policy is also highly plausible in the event of a likely US recession.
In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, TRON, XRP, and Bitcoin were the relative outperformers.
Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has declined again compared to the prior week, with only 15% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. This is consistent with the reversal in outperformance of Ethereum vis-à-vis Bitcoin on a weekly basis.
Sentiment
Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has decreased and signals a slightly bearish sentiment.
At the moment, 4 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.
Last week, there were significant reversals to the downside in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index and in the BTC long futures liquidation dominance.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index signals ”Neutral” sentiment as of this morning.
Performance dispersion among cryptoassets has increased sharply from its recent lows. This means that altcoins have started to trade a bit differently than Bitcoin over the past week.
Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has declined again compared to the week prior, with around 15% of our tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin on a weekly basis, which is consistent with the fact that Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin slightly last week.
In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin underperformance could signal declining appetite for risk at the moment.
Sentiment in traditional financial markets has increased slightly but remains close to the lowest levels since November 2023, judging by our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA).
Fund Flows
Last week, we saw significant net fund outflows from global crypto ETPs with around -745.3 mn USD in net outflows which was the second highest weekly net outflow on record.
Global Bitcoin ETPs saw net outflows of -739.0 mn USD last week, of which -544.1 mn USD (net) were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone. Outflows from Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs also picked up with -121.5 mn USD which contributed to the global rout as well.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw less intense net outflows compared to the week prior but still recorded -152.6 mn USD in net outflows last week.
Meanwhile, net outflows from global Ethereum ETPs also accelerated last week with net outflows totalling -135.2 mn USD. This was partially due to accelerating outflows from Hong Kong Ethereum ETFs which recorded -68.9 mn USD in net outflows.
In contrast, altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum continued to experience net inflows of around +8.0 mn USD last week.
The same is true for Thematic & basket crypto ETPs which saw a very significant reversal in net inflows of +120.8 mn USD, based on our calculations. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) saw neither in- nor outflows last week.
Meanwhile, global crypto hedge funds continued sail, the markets with an underweight exposure to Bitcoin. The beta of global crypto hedge funds’ performance stood at only 0.49 over the past 20 trading days.
On-Chain Data
Bitcoin on-chain continue to paint a rather bearish picture at the moment.
Net buying volumes on BTC spot exchanges continued to be negative, consistent with ongoing net outflows from global Bitcoin ETP and US spot Bitcoin ETFs. This is also evident in the widening negative Coinbase premium, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin prices on Coinbase and Binance. Since Coinbase tends to be dominated by larger investors, a negative premium to retail-dominated exchanges like Binance tends to be sign, of institutional selling. On a positive note, net selling pressure on exchanges seems to be declining gradually, measured by the cumulative volume delta.
Overall BTC exchange balances also increased over the past week on account of increasing whale exchange transfers. This has been holding up selling pressure on exchanges and is also consistent with the previous observations. Whales are defined as network entities that control at least 1,000 BTC. That being said, the absolute number of whales has stabilized last week, which is a positive sign.
However, OTC desk balances have surged significantly in a sign that institutional investors have transferred large amounts of bitcoin to OTC desks which also increases selling pressure. Some analysts have attributed this increase to increased transfers by BTC miners amid declining revenues post-Halving but aggregate BTC miner wallets continued to move sideways over the past 2 weeks which does not imply huge liquidations from miners.
Meanwhile, ETH exchange balances continue to drift lower and make fresh multi-year lows. Ethereum L2 metrics also continue to surprise to the upside with the number of weekly active users hitting a new all-time high last week.
Futures, Options & Perpetuals
Last week, both BTC futures and perpetuals open interest increased into declining prices, which implies that futures have been adding shorts on a net basis as long futures liquidations dominated.
In this context, the perpetual funding rate across BTC exchanges briefly turned negative last week Friday in a sign that positioning in perpetual futures is becoming lopsided which would be an approaching sign of an imminent tactical bottom.
However, perpetual funding rates have not turned negative in a way that would qualify to be a reliable signal.
The Bitcoin futures basis rate also continued to decline throughout the week. At the time of writing, the basis rate stands at 10.1% p.a. which is still like levels last seen in mid-May.
Although the signals in favour of a tactical floor are increasing, BTC options still only signal a slight increase in risk aversion as implied volatilities and put-call volume ratios continue to be relatively low (Chart-of-the-Week).
BTC option indicators are one of the market segments we are watching to assess a more sustainable tactical bottom in Bitcoin and cryptoassets more broadly.
Bitcoin options’ open interest increased slightly over the course of last week. Since the put-call open interest ratio remained flat during that time frame, this implies that option traders have both added calls and put options proportionally last week.
The 25-delta BTC 1-month option skew continued to drift higher but is still lower than the levels seen in May or April where we saw a short-term bottom.
BTC option implied volatilities were relatively unchanged last week. Implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 46.4% p.a.
Bottom Line
• Last week, cryptoassets underperformed again as global crypto ETP flows experienced the 2nd highest weekly net outflows on record
• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Indicator” has decreased and signals a slightly bearish sentiment
• Despite increasing bearishness in crypto markets, BTC options still imply an elevated level of complacency among crypto investors; an increase in risk aversion in BTC options could signal a more sustainable tactical bottom
To read our Crypto Market Compass in full, please click the button below:
This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer
Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has amassed a staggering $43 billion in Bitcoin, positioning itself at the forefront of the corporate “reserve race.” Under the leadership of Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, the company now boasts an $84 billion market cap. But with such an aggressive strategy, how sustainable is its approach—and what risks lie ahead? We break it down in today’s analysis.
Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
A drop below $72,000 could flush longs, while a breakout above $90,000 may squeeze shorts. One key positive indicator is that Bitcoin continues to print higher lows since March 10, which preserves a bullish market structure in our view. Dive into our technical analysis.
What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Imagine owning a slice of a skyscraper or a piece of fine art with just a few clicks. Tokenization, the act of converting ownership rights to real-world assets (RWAs) into tradable tokens, has surpassed $10 billion in on-chain value, unlocking global 24/7 access to once-exclusive markets with liquidity, efficiency, and yield. Find out how it works.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF EUR Acc (BSE0 ETF) med ISIN IE000I25S1V5, försöker följa Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2030) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2030 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a. Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF EUR Accär den billigaste och största ETF som följer Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF EUR Acc är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 6 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Produktbeskrivning
Invesco BulletShares 2030 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETFAccsyftar till att ge den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2030 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus avgifternas inverkan. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen.
Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla resultatet för EUR-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldebrev emitterade av företagsemittenter. För att vara berättigade till inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner euro i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2030 och 31 december 2030.
Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.
Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig varaktighet, industrisektorer, landvikter och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfallodag kommer kontanterna som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga EUR-denominerade skulder.
ETFen förvaltas passivt.
En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.
”Förfallodag”: andra onsdagen i december 2026 eller sådant annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägaren
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.
We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.
Market Highlights
SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions
The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.
This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.
Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities
The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.
By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.
Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.
This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.
Market Metrics
All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.