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Crypto Market Compass | 15 July 2024

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Crypto Market Compass 15 July 2024 Last week, cryptoassets outperformed significantly on account of increasing evidence of seller exhaustion and favourable tailwinds from US monetary policy and US political developments.

• Last week, cryptoassets outperformed significantly on account of increasing evidence of seller exhaustion and favourable tailwinds from US monetary policy and US political developments.

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has reversed sharply and signals a slightly bullish sentiment again.

• Both increasing odds for an initial Fed rate cut in September and increasing odds of a Trump presidency have provided a significant tailwind for Bitcoin and cryptoassets more recently.

Chart of the week

Performance

Last week, cryptoassets outperformed significantly on account of increasing evidence of seller exhaustion and favourable tailwinds from US monetary policy and US political developments.

Most notably, the odds for a Fed rate cut in September have significantly increased following weaker-than-expected inflation readings in June that have paved the way for earlier rate cuts in September.

At the time of writing, Fed Funds Futures pencil in a 91% chance of a Fed rate cut in September.

In addition, Trump odds for the presidential election in 2024 have jumped to new highs following the failed assassination attempt over the weekend (Chart-of-the-Week).

Trump has reiterated his intention to speak at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville on the 27th of July despite the assassination attempt, which has buoyed market sentiment in Bitcoin.

The favourable developments were flanked by the fact that the German government entity has completed its sale of 50k BTC last week on Friday. This had been a constant source of selling pressure over the past weeks which has now subsided.

Meanwhile, we saw increasing buying interest from global crypto ETP investors as well as global hedge funds that appear to have increased their market exposure to Bitcoin as well.

Furthermore, market sentiment is currently supported by the anticipated trading launch of the US spot Ethereum ETFs which is expected to take place on the 18th of July this week, according to Bloomberg analysts.

In general, among the top 10 crypto assets, Cardano, XRP, and Shiba Inu were the relative outperformers.

Overall, altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has significantly increased again compared to the prior week, with 85% of our tracked altcoins managing to outperform Bitcoin on a weekly basis. Ethereum also outperformed Bitcoin on a weekly basis.

Sentiment

Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has reversed sharply and signals a slightly bullish sentiment again.

At the moment, 8 out of 15 indicators are above their short-term trend.

Last week, there were significant increases in the BTC Futures Shorts Liquidation Dominance and the crypto ETP fund flows.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently signals a “Neutral” level of sentiment as of this morning. It had fallen to “Extreme Fear” readings last week.

Performance dispersion among cryptoassets has increased slightly again. This means that altcoins are becoming less correlated with the performance of Bitcoin again.

Altcoin outperformance vis-à-vis Bitcoin has also significantly increased compared to the week prior, with around 85% of our tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin on a weekly basis, which is consistent with the fact that Ethereum also outperformed Bitcoin last week.

In general, increasing (decreasing) altcoin outperformance tends to be a sign of increasing (decreasing) risk appetite within cryptoasset markets and the latest altcoin outperformance could signal increasing appetite for risk at the moment.

Meanwhile, sentiment in traditional financial markets also continued to improve along with a significant increase in market-based monetary policy expectations, judging by our own measure of Cross Asset Risk Appetite (CARA).

Fund Flows

Fund flows into global crypto ETPs continued to be very positive and even accelerated compared to the prior week.

Global crypto ETPs saw around +1,852.5 mn USD in net inflows across all types of cryptoassets which is significantly higher than the +695.9 mn USD in net inflows recorded the prior week.

Global Bitcoin ETPs saw net inflows of +1,749.9 mn USD last week, of which +1,047.7 mn USD in net inflows were related to US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone.

Last week also saw significant inflows into Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs once again with +451.9 mn USD in net inflows.

Outflows from the ETC Group Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) decelerated last week with net outflows equivalent to -15.0 mn USD while the ETC Group Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) saw positive net inflows of +0.9 mn USD.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to see minor net outflows, with around -35.2 mn USD last week.

Meanwhile, global Ethereum ETPs also saw an acceleration in flows last week compared to the week prior with positive net inflows totalling +83.5 mn USD. Hong Kong Ethereum ETFs also attracted some capital last week (+4.2 mn USD).

The ETC Group Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) saw sticky AuM last week and the ETC Group Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) showed slight net outflows last week (-0.7 mn USD in net outflows).

Altcoin ETPs ex Ethereum continued to attract capital of around +14.4 mn USD which was slightly lower than last week.

Thematic & basket crypto ETPs also continued to see positive net inflows of +4.7 mn USD, based on our calculations. The ETC Group MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20) also an increase in net inflows last week (+0.5 mn USD).

Meanwhile, global crypto hedge funds have continued to increase their market exposure even further. The 20-days rolling beta of global crypto hedge funds’ performance increased to around 0.72 (up from 0.66) per yesterday’s close.

On-Chain Data

Bitcoin on-chain data paint a picture of increasing seller exhaustion and accelerating buying interest.

Most notably, the German government entity has finished its sales of its 50k BTC last week on Friday, when its combined holdings reached 0 BTC according to data provided by Arkham. These sales had been a constant source of selling pressure previously which has now subsided.

Other major holders such as the US government or the Mt Gox trustee have not sold any bitcoins over the past week. That being said, any potential distribution from these entities still remains a risk for the market.

Both entities still control around 207k BTC and 139k BTC, respectively.
In our last report we wrote:

“On a positive note, this high degree of selling implies that sellers could become exhausted relatively soon, which would lead to a stabilization in prices.”

In fact, over the past week, we saw that net buying volumes on Bitcoin spot exchanges continue to gradually increase from oversold levels as selling pressure subsided and buying interest gradually accelerated as well. More specifically, net buying volumes on Bitcoin spot exchanges has increased to +353 mn USD over the past 7 days which is the highest level in 2 months.

Whale exchange transfers had reached the highest level since May 2023 last week in an increasing sign of whale capitulation and overall seller exhaustion. Whales are defined as entities that control at least 1,000 BTC.

In fact, whales realized the highest number of losses in USD-terms last week on Friday since July 2023. Whales are mostly comprised of short-term holders with a holding period of less than 155 days.

We think that this developments is particularly bullish and also adds to the evidence that a tactical bottom is likely as stated here.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin mining hash rate has continued to stabilize since its low reached on the 28th of June and has increased by almost 50 EH/s since then. This is a sign of decreasing economic pressure on Bitcoin miners and decreases the risk of significant distributions.

In fact, the percentage of mined supply sold has decreased to the lowest level in 2024 to 95% over the past 30 days. This means that bitcoin miners have started to hold more than they mine on a daily basis. This has also decreased selling pressure on the market.

Futures, Options & Perpetuals

Last week, both BTC futures and perpetual open interest increased significantly in a sign of a return in risk appetite. More specifically, BTC futures and perpetual open interest increased by approximately +22k BTC and +17k BTC, respectively. This happened amid a spike in short futures liquidations to the highest level since mid-April 2024.

Perpetual funding rates remained positive throughout last week. When the funding rate is positive (negative), long (short) positions periodically pay short (long) positions. A positive funding rate tends to be a sign of bullish sentiment in perpetual futures markets.

The 3-months annualized BTC futures basis rate increased sharply from its recent lows to around 11.9% p.a.

BTC options’ open interest increased only slightly last week. Mostly driven by an increase in BTC call option demand as evidenced by the sharp drop in put-call open interest ratio.

This is consistent with the fact that the 1-month 25-delta option skew also declined significantly signalling a drop in relative demand for put options.
BTC option implied volatilities have generally declined over the past week. Implied volatilities of 1-month ATM Bitcoin options are currently at around 47.9% p.a.

Nonetheless, the term structure of volatility is still slightly inverted now, with short-dated options trading at significantly higher implied volatilities than options expiring in October. This could have something to do with the anticipated trading launch of Ethereum spot ETFs this week. The term structure of implied volatilities for Ethereum options shows a similar pattern, although less pronounced.

Bottom Line

• Last week, cryptoassets outperformed significantly on account of increasing evidence of seller exhaustion and favourable tailwinds from US monetary policy and US political developments.

• Our in-house “Cryptoasset Sentiment Index” has reversed sharply and signals a slightly bullish sentiment again.

• Both increasing odds for an initial Fed rate cut in September and increasing odds of a Trump presidency have provided a significant tailwind for Bitcoin and cryptoassets more recently.

To read our Crypto Market Compass in full, please click the button below:

This is not investment advice. Capital at risk. Read the full disclaimer

© ETC Group 2019-2024 | All rights reserved

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Fördelarna med ETF-investeringar

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Det finns många skäl att sätta börshandlade fonder i hjärtat av din investeringsstrategi när du jämför deras styrkor med alternativen. Vi tittar på fördelarna med ETF-investeringar.

Det finns många skäl att sätta börshandlade fonder i hjärtat av din investeringsstrategi när du jämför deras styrkor med alternativen. Vi tittar på fördelarna med ETF-investeringar.

ETFer har samlat flera biljoner i tillgångar under förvaltning sedan deras fördelar först kom till kunniga investerares kännedom i början av noughties. Deras popularitet och trovärdighet har bara ökat sedan dess. Vi förklarar varför både institutionella aktörer och gör-det-själv-investerare köper in sig på ETFer.

14 skäl till att köpa ETFer

  1. Enkelt: ETFer kan köpas och säljas på börsen som vilken annan aktie som helst.
  2. Kostnadseffektivt: Avgifterna är låga jämfört med aktiva fonder. Aktiva fonder som grupp misslyckas med att slå marknaden på lång sikt efter kostnader som avgifter och skatter. Medan ETFer strävar efter att matcha marknadsavkastningen minus kostnader. Den negativa sammansättningseffekten av aktiva pengars högre kostnader innebär att motsvarande ETFer vanligtvis vinner över tid.
  3. Diversifiering och tidshantering: Att äga en ETF ger dig exponering mot dussintals, hundratals eller till och med tusentals värdepapper som täcker alla värdefulla tillgångsklasser. Det är en omedelbar lösning på problemet med att ständigt försöka välja vinnare och förlorare. Istället för att försöka förutsäga marknaden äger du helt enkelt marknaden.
  4. Transparent: Du vet alltid vad en ETF gör. Det är utformat för att replikera avkastningen från dess angivna marknadsindex – så din avkastning bör matcha det indexets prestanda efter kostnader och tracking error. Du kan kontrollera ditt indexs innehav och exponeringar när som helst på dess webbsida.
  5. Val och kontroll: Det finns över 1 600 ETFer noterade på London Stock Exchange. Tillsammans gör de att du kan investera i alla länder, regioner, sektorer och tillgångsklasser som du behöver. Från etiska investeringar till AI, från ädelmetaller till genomik – ETFer gör att du kan investera i hela världens framtid.
  6. Säkert: ETFer tillhandahålls av stora och välkapitaliserade finansiella institutioner som BlackRock, Vanguard, HSBC och State Street. I den osannolika händelsen att något av dessa företag går i konkurs, finns det europeiska regler och kompensationssystem för att skydda dina tillgångar.
  7. Likvida: ETFer kan handlas när du vill under normala börstider. Jämför det med traditionella fonder som bara kan handlas en gång om dagen.
  8. Ultralåga handelsavgifter: Vissa mäklare erbjuder handel utan provision medan andra erbjuder mycket billiga vanliga investeringsplaner.
  9. Prisvärt: Bråkhandel innebär att du kan köpa en ETF från så lite som 1€ eller 1 pund eller till och med en krona hos vissa mäklare. Andra mäklare begär ett minimibidrag från 25€ / £25 eller 50€ / £50 per affär.
  10. Enkelt att förstå: Att investera i aktier är bäst att överlåta till proffsen, men även aktiva fonder kräver mycket forskning – och du är fortfarande aldrig säker på hur förvaltaren sköter dina pengar. Samtidigt är ETFer extremt enkla även för oerfarna investerare. Allt du behöver veta om en ETF publiceras på dess webbsida.
  11. Inkomstinvesteringar: Du kan leva på naturlig avkastning med en portfölj av ETFer med hög utdelning. Lägre kostnader innebär mer inkomster till dig.
  12. Vad du ser är vad du får: Priset på ETFer håller sig vanligtvis nära det faktiska värdet på deras tillgångar. Till skillnad från Investment Trusts, lider ETFer inte av den extra risken att handla till en premie eller rabatt på sina underliggande innehav.
  13. Lätt att jämföra: ETF-branschen har många marknadsaktörer som konkurrerar om att minska produktkostnaderna och lansera innovativa nya erbjudanden. Det finns gott om val och därför har vi fokuserat på att göra jämförelser snabbt och enkelt.
  14. Skattevänliga: De allra flesta ETFer kan ägas genom Investeringssparkonton eller kapitalförsäkringar, så dina vinster kan ackumuleras skattefritt.

Är ETFer alltid rätt val?

  • Kontanter: Om du vill ha kontanter är det vanligtvis bättre att använda ett sparkonto snarare än en penningmarknads-ETF. Ett konkurrenskraftigt inlåningskonto bör tjäna en högre ränta, det kommer inte att tillkomma några handelsavgifter och den maximala ersättningsnivån är högre för kontanter på banken jämfört med en ETF-leverantör.
  • Frestelse att överhandla: Många handlare (inklusive hedgefonder) använder ETFer. Men överdriven handel kan öka kostnaderna och potentiellt minska avkastningen. Vissa tycker att det är lättare att köpa och hålla med en mindre flexibel indexfond. Om det är du, kan en gammal skolans fond vara en bättre psykologisk passform.
  • Inte alltid billigare: Ibland är den lägsta kostnadsindexfonden en smula billigare än sin ETF-motsvarighet. Detta är något att hålla utkik efter på välbetjänade marknader som FTSE 100 trackers.
  • Högriskprodukter: Hävstångsbaserade och korta ETFer är högt specialiserade investeringar som huvudsakligen är avsedda för kortsiktig användning av institutionella aktörer. Investera bara i nischprodukter om du är helt säker på att du förstår riskerna.
  • Illikviditet: Även om de flesta ETFer är mycket likvida, kan vissa små och nischade ETFer handlas sällan. Låga handelsvolymer kan innebära en kostsam spread. En lämplig fond kan vara ett bättre alternativ.
  • Ingen överavkastning: En ETF strävar efter att matcha avkastningen från sitt index. Att investera dina pengar med en aktiv fondförvaltare kan fungera bättre med jämna mellanrum, speciellt om du har tur. Mot denna förhoppning står de fasta bevisen från ett flertal studier på att aktiva fonder misslyckas med att slå indexföljande produkter sammantaget.

Den avgörande fördelen

Ökningen i popularitet för ETFer är ingen tillfällighet. De flesta investerare tycker att en ETF-portfölj gör det möjligt för dem att enkelt genomföra sin investeringsstrategi – oavsett om de vill bygga upp välstånd eller leva på inkomster. Naturligtvis är det alltid bäst att göra din analys först. ETFmarknaden.se är ett bra sätt att börja sin resa på.

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CEBX ETF köper dollardenominerade fastränteobligationer

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iShares US Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Dist) (CEBX ETF) med ISIN IE00093SKUY4 mförsöker följa Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond (EUR Hedged)-index. Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond (EUR Hedged)-index följer obligationer med fast ränta i USD, inklusive statsobligationer, statsrelaterade, värdepapperiserade och företagsrelaterade värdepapper. Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR). Betyg: Investment Grade.

iShares US Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Dist) (CEBX ETF) med ISIN IE00093SKUY4 mförsöker följa Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond (EUR Hedged)-index. Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond (EUR Hedged)-index följer obligationer med fast ränta i USD, inklusive statsobligationer, statsrelaterade, värdepapperiserade och företagsrelaterade värdepapper. Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR). Betyg: Investment Grade.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. iShares US Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Dist) är den billigaste ETF som följer Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond (EUR Hedged) index. Denna ETF replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i ETFn delas ut till investerarna (halvårsvis).

iShares US Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Dist) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 0 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 21 februari 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Varför CEBX?

Diversifierad exponering mot den breda US-dollardenominerade obligationsmarknaden med investeringsgrad

Direktinvesteringar i stats-, statsrelaterade, företags- och värdepapperiserade obligationer

Obligationsexponering med investeringsgrad

Investeringsmål

Andelsklassen strävar efter att spåra utvecklingen av ett index som består av amerikanska dollar denominerade statsobligationer, statsrelaterade, företagsobligationer och värdepapperiserade obligationer.

Handla CEBX ETF

iShares US Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Dist) (CEBX ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURCEBX

Största innehav

EmittentVikt (%)
UNITED STATES TREASURY44.49
FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION11.71
GOVERNMENT NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION II5.71
FEDERAL HOME LOAN MORTGAGE CORPORATION5.08
UNIFORM MBS2.85
BANK OF AMERICA CORP0.59
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO0.56
MORGAN STANLEY0.43
INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT0.38
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY0.37

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Transforming DeFi: The Strategic Leap of Unichain

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Uniswap Labs announced Unichain, whose testnet launched on October 10 and mainnet is launching in November, relying on the tech infrastructure from Ethereum layer-2 Optimism's OP Stack, and block builder Flashbots.

• Uniswap Labs announced Unichain, whose testnet launched on October 10 and mainnet is launching in November, relying on the tech infrastructure from Ethereum layer-2 Optimism’s OP Stack, and block builder Flashbots.

• Unichain is a DeFi-specific scalability solution aiming to offer a universal liquidity hub, with an emphasis on transaction speed and superior security.

• Uniswap’s token UNI will be used, or staked, to validate Unichain transactions and earn part of the network’s sequencer fees – of which the stack will be decentralized using what’s known as the Unichain Validation Network.

• This is a key development, as it will transform UNI from a governance token into a utility token, thereby completely changing its investment case.

Uniswap is the crypto market’s largest decentralized exchange (DEX) and the pioneer of the crypto-native automated market maker (AMM), which later became an industry standard for most DEXs. While Uniswap has maintained over 46% of the market share, its dominance has been eaten away by emerging DEXs, as shown below in Figure 1, that offer revenue sharing with token holders rather than just for liquidity providers.

Figure 1 – Decentralized Exchanges Volume

Source: Dune

Driven by this increasing competition, Uniswap Labs revealed Unichain, a Layer 2 (L2) Superchain, built using OP Stack, which is a modular, open-source software stack developed by Optimism, one of Ethereum’s leading scalability solutions. The primary goal of the OP Stack is to create scalable, secure, and interoperable blockchains, with Unichain being a prime example.

What is Unichain?

In essence, it’s a DeFi-centric Ethereum scaling solution designed to cater to users’ financial activities. By integrating advanced cross-chain functionality through technologies like cross-chain intents (ERC-7683), which we’ll delve into later, and the LayerZero bridge, Unichain addresses key challenges in the DeFi ecosystem:

  1. Transaction Speed: Block times are reduced to one second, with plans for 250ms sub-blocks – faster than many other L2s.
  2. Cost Efficiency: Transaction costs are projected to decrease by approximately 95% compared to Ethereum’s Layer 1, as can be observed below in Figure 2.
  3. Cross-Chain Liquidity: Unichain aims to create a unified ecosystem for seamless multi-chain asset trading, all whilst abstracting the technology’s complexity away from the user. Otherwise, users are required to utilize third-party bridging solutions and asset wrappers, which exposes them to heightened smart-contract risk.
  4. Incentive Structure: A robust reward system that compensates both token holders and liquidity providers for their liquidity and security contributions.

While Unichain aims to tackle liquidity fragmentation across networks, this gradual process will stretch beyond the initial mainnet launch. The protocol will need to incentivize users and liquidity providers to migrate their liquidity to Unichain as the premier network over time. Thus, liquidity fragmentation could worsen in the short term as this reorganization takes place.

Figure 2 – Average transaction speed vs. Fees of Ethereum’s Layer 2s

Source: Dune

What makes Unichain stand out?

  1. Interoperable and a Multi-Chain Cohesive Ecosystem:
    The quest of lowering transaction costs came at the expense of fragmented liquidity, complicating the user experience. Unichain is designed to simplify swapping across different chains. They worked with OP Labs, the builders behind Optimism (Ethereum’s third largest L2 by TVL of $680M), to make it easy to send messages between L2s in the Optimism Superchain using the network’s stack native interoperability technology. For other chains, Uniswap Labs is improving cross-chain compatibility through initiatives like the Cross-Chain Intents standard, known as ERC-7683.

In this view, Unichain’s Total Addressable Market can have a target of $4.9B, illustrated below in Figure 3.

Figure 3 – UNI’s TVL Across Chains

Source: DeFiLlama

What is ERC-7683, and what is its impact?

Introduced in April 2024, the Cross-Chain Intents standard enhances blockchain interoperability by standardizing off-chain messages and on-chain settlement. This framework simplifies cross-network transactions for users, allowing them to submit a general request—such as swapping Token X on Ethereum for Token Y on Arbitrum—without needing to choose specific bridges, DEXs or solutions. Once a request is made, specialized agents called ”fillers” compete to execute the transaction efficiently. This approach streamlines the process, making it easier for users to trade across several networks like they would in a traditional fintech application that has multiple currency accounts, all whilst fostering competition among service providers across the crypto ecosystem. This will ultimately improve the user experience, which is one of the most important factors in driving mainstream adoption.

  1. Vertical Integration:

Unichain represents a strategic shift in Uniswap’s operational model, enhancing its control over revenue streams and transaction processing. By evolving into an execution network similar to Base and Arbitrum, Unichain now captures additional value through:

o Transaction / Gas Fees – previously allocated to the networks Uniswap lives on. As shown below in Figure 4, Uniswap will be able to preserve about close to $374M in fees, once they’re able to settle these transitions on its own network.

Figure 4 – Uniswap Economics by Blockchain

Source: TheDeFiReport, TokenTerminal

o Swap fees: allocated to liquidity providers (LPs), which had previously been managed and distributed to contributors.

o Front-end fees: the protocol’s only source of revenue that it retains. It has already been in place and managed by the exchange’s front-end interface, as shown below in Figure 5. Uniswap has generated close to $50M in front-end fees since inception.

o Maximal Extractable Value (MEV): previously absorbed by the networks Uniswap was deployed on. Unichain could retain a significant portion of the $83B paid on Ethereum if they had internalized MEV from the offset, as seen below in Figure 5.

Figure 5 – Total Volume of Sandwich attacks on Ethereum, via Uniswap

Source: Dune

This transformation allows Uniswap to optimize its revenue structure and maintain greater oversight of the entire transaction lifecycle, from execution to settlement. The new model not only improves Uniswap’s economic efficiency but also positions it to offer enhanced services and potentially lower costs for users, all while retaining more value within its ecosystem. Uniswap’s substantial DEX volume across multiple networks, as illustrated in Figure 6, positions the new network for significant growth. By consolidating this activity within its ecosystem, Unichain stands to benefit from a powerful network effects.

Figure 6 – Uniswap Volume Across Different Chains

Source: Dune

Unichain’s architecture also enhances the platform’s capabilities with features like fair transaction ordering, which helps prevent market manipulation strategies such as front-running and back-running. Additionally, by utilizing a dedicated validator set on Ethereum, Unichain can effectively mitigate toxic flows, thereby reducing Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) losses, which we talk about next, helping to foster a fairer trading environment.

  1. Lower MEV Loss: Unichain’s collaboration with Flashbots introduces an advanced block production system that enhances market efficiency and mitigates MEV concerns. By utilizing Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs), this system achieves faster block times, improved transaction ordering transparency, and reduced failed transactions. While TEEs do not replace decentralized consensus, they provide enhanced trust and security compared to traditional block builders. This approach effectively limits validators’ ability to manipulate transaction order for profit, creating a more equitable environment.
  2. Unichain Validation Network: UNI stakers will form a decentralized network of full nodes that replace the actions of the centralized sequencer. Overall, they will provide several key benefits, including:

o Enhanced Decentralization: An additional layer of security that allows independent nodes of operators (token stakers) to verify the state of the blockchain – helping to reduce the risks associated with single sequencer architecture commonly found in other L2 solutions.

o Faster Finality: Quicker settlement of cross-chain transactions, driven by the flashblock technology.

o Increased Token Utility: Instead of simply serving as a governance token, UNI will now play a critical part in the ecosystem. Validators will have to stake the token to participate in the network validation – allowing token holders and not just liquidity providers to earn rewards.

So, what does that mean for Uniswap, Ethereum and the other L2s Uniswap was deployed on?

Unichain’s launch will introduce seamless cross-chain swaps directly through the Uniswap Interface and Wallet, significantly enhancing accessibility to cross-chain markets and their liquidity.

The platform will utilize UNI tokens for network security, with staking occurring on the Ethereum mainnet. This integration increases UNI’s utility and potential demand. However, it’s important to note that the staking yield from transaction fees is distinct from the pending fee switch affecting the broader Uniswap community. Both mechanisms serve to incentivize token holders.

Unichain’s introduction may signal a shift towards app-specific chains retaining substantial user activity. This could create a network effect, attracting more users and liquidity and potentially drawing in other DeFi protocols focused on multi-network presence rather than developing proprietary chains. As seen below, Uniswap has about 14M cumulative users spread across the multiple networks it is deployed on, depicted below in Figure 7. Thus, consolidating this user base could create an unmatched DeFi hub.

Figure 7 – Uniswap Users and New Users

Source: Dune

For Ethereum, Unichain’s launch may lead to a reduction in revenue, as Uniswap has been a significant contributor to transaction fees on the mainnet. Consequently, this could further decrease Ethereum’s deflationary activity. However, if an explosion of activity occurs, we can expect a surge in the amount of ETH used by L2s to settle their activity on the mainnet.

To recap, Uniswap’s evolution into Unichain represents a pivotal shift for the UNI token, transforming it from a governance-focused asset into a multifaceted, value-generating instrument. This transition elevates UNI’s status in the crypto ecosystem, positioning it competitively alongside established proof-of-stake tokens like ETH.

What’s happening this week?

Source: Forex Factory, 21Shares

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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