Crypto correlations shift with tariff news

Toward the end of February, correlations between crypto and other asset classes—excluding gold—began to rise, influenced by key US policy decisions on international trade tariffs. This trend, captured in the 30-day correlation window, is typical during periods of market stress, when assets often move in tandem, reflecting a broader risk-off sentiment.

However, in the wake of “Liberation Day,” this pattern unexpectedly broke, with crypto correlations declining (except to gold). This anomaly mirrors the first week of April when digital assets outperformed traditional markets despite economic uncertainty.

Market Highlights

Trump’s tariffs pause lifts BTC to $81K

President Trump paused tariffs for 90 days and lowered reciprocal duties to 10% for most countries, sending bitcoin back to $81,000.
This move underscores how broader economic policies continue to influence crypto markets, highlighting bitcoin’s growing integration with traditional finance and its role in the global macro narrative.

Crypto prices rise as inflation drops in March

Bitcoin and ether climbed on Thursday, after core inflation in the US rose by 2.8%—below expectations and a notable drop from February’s 3.1%.

The cooling inflation could signal future interest rate cuts and help boost the appetite for risk assets like crypto.

BlackRock CEO—bitcoin could challenge USD

In BlackRock’s annual letter to investors, its CEO Larry Fink suggested that bitcoin could challenge the US dollar’s reserve status.

This highlights the growing concerns over US debt and bitcoin’s appeal as a store-of-value asset in the so-called “debasement trade.”

Market Metrics

NCITM constituents had a strong week, with the exception of ETH, which dipped 2.2%, and UNI, which posted only modest gains compared to other constituents. SOL (+18.8%) and AVAX (+20.5%) delivered strong performance, contributing to the index’s +5.6% gain. This rally could be driven by the easing macro environment, with the tariff pause and inflation decline in the US creating a more favorable climate for risk assets.

This week, the NCITM rose 5.6%, following the strong performance of traditional indices like the Nasdaq 100 (+7.4%) and the S&P 500 (+5.7%), as risk assets broadly benefited from an easing macro environment. However, gold outperformed once again, gaining 8.2% and further widening its lead as the top-performing asset of the year. Despite the temporary pause in tariffs and signs of macroeconomic relief, uncertainty remains—driven by concerns over US debt and the growing appeal of the so-called “debasement trade” favoring reserve assets such as gold and BTC.