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Crude oil prices at risk

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Weekly Investment Insights: Crude oil prices at risk. In 2017, ETF Securities will be broadening its weekly FX insights to cover all asset classes including commodities, equities and fixed income. We hope you continue to find these updates useful

Weekly Investment Insights: Crude oil prices at risk. In 2017, ETF Securities will be broadening its weekly FX insights to cover all asset classes including commodities, equities and fixed income. We hope you continue to find these updates useful

Highlights

  • The November oil accord is likely to do little in the face of strong Iraqi exports and growing US production.
  • Momentum underpinning oil prices is wavering and a downside correction is likely in the short term.
  • Beyond Q1-17, the fundamental outlook for oil is more positive as global demand marches higher.

ETF Securities Trade Idea – Commodities & Foreign Exchange – Crude oil prices at risk

Volatility abound

The OPEC/non-OPEC compliance and monitoring committee, charged with ensuring successful implementation of the November accord (which entailed a 1.2mbpd reduction in output), will meet for the first time this weekend as uncertainty continues to drive fluctuations in global oil markets. While statements professing compliance by key oil ministers in Saudi Arabia and Algeria have kept prices elevated (supported somewhat by reports of falling production in the latest monthly OPEC report), downside risks loom. Participants continue to be wary of whether Iraq will comply with the deal, as the nation has been asked to reduce production by the second largest amount (within OPEC) in spite of its challenging economic circumstances. Meanwhile, output and exports in the US continue to expand in the higher-price environment. Our view is that oil prices are likely to come under further pressure in the coming month as considerable downside risks overcome market optimism over the November agreement, which in itself is only expected to last until June.

Risks ahead

During last week’s Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi, senior cartel officials from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Algeria all publically announced commitment to the November production agreement and some even stated a willingness to exceed requirements in order to see the deal work. While on the surface this appears very positive, the reality is that risks actually emanate from OPEC’s second largest producer, Iraq, where oil exports hit an unprecedented level in December. Therefore, the success of the landmark accord still remains in the balance and in any case, is only expected to be a feature of the oil market for a short six months. Also, with oil prices above the key $50/bbl level, US oil production is ramping up quickly (see Figure 1), with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reporting that oil output has hit an eight month high. This creates a landscape where support for oil prices looks fragile and a downward correction looks likely.

Figure 1: US output grows

(Click to enlarge)

From a technical perspective, momentum indicators appear to be waning for crude benchmarks and point to moves lower in coming sessions. Speculative futures positioning for Brent and WTI crude oil has moderated in recent weeks but still remains at levels that suggest downward correction potential. Any move lower in oil prices is likely to face resistance from their 8th December lows of around $52.8/bbl and $50.9/bbl for Brent and WTI respectively, which sits near their current 50 dmas.

Prospects diverge

While the short-term outlook above is broadly negative for the oil-exporting currency complex (CAD and NOK), prospects are not uniform. The CAD has the benefit of 76% of its exports going to the US and accordingly is directly exposed to the improving growth outlook there. Meanwhile, Norway is still struggling through a structural transition away from oil industries while growth and inflation are moderating, painting a less positive picture for the NOK. Beyond Q1-17, we expect to continue to see the global oil market returning to a balanced state and offering further upside to crude prices.

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Currency ETPs

EUR Base

ETFS Long CAD Short EUR (ECAD)
ETFS Short CAD Long EUR (CADE)
ETFS Long NOK Short EUR (EUNO)
ETFS Short NOK Long EUR (NOEU)

GBP Base

ETFS Long CAD Short GBP (GBCA)
ETFS Short CAD Long GBP (CAGB)
ETFS Long NOK Short GBP (GBNO)
ETFS Short NOK Long GBP (NOGB)

USD Base

ETFS Long CAD Short USD (LCAD)
ETFS Short CAD Long USD (SCAD)
ETFS Long NOK Short USD (LNOK)
ETFS Short NOK Long USD (SNOK)

3x

ETFS 3x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA3)
ETFS 3x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE3)

5x

ETFS 5x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA5)
ETFS 5x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE5)

Currency Baskets

ETFS Bullish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (SCOM)
ETFS Bearish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (LCOM)

Commodity ETPs

ETFS Brent Crude (BRNT)
ETFS WTI Crude Oil (CRUD)
ETFS Longer Dated Brent Crude (FBRT)
ETFS Longer Dated WTI Crude Oil (FCRU)

2x & -1x

ETFS 2x Daily Long Brent Crude (LBRT)
ETFS 2x Daily Long WTI Crude Oil (LOIL)
ETFS 1x Daily Short Brent Crude (SBRT)
ETFS 1x Daily Short WTI Crude Oil (SOIL)

3x

ETFS 3x Daily Long WTI Crude Oil (3CRL)
ETFS 3x Daily Short WTI Crude Oil (3CRS)

ETFS EUR Daily Hedged Brent Crude (EBRT)
ETFS EUR Daily Hedged WTI Crude Oil (ECRD)
ETFS GBP Daily Hedged Brent Crude (PBRT)
ETFS GBP Daily Hedged WTI Crude Oil (PCRD)

The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here.

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”). FXL is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.

This communication is only targeted at professional investors. In Switzerland, this communication is only targeted at Regulated Qualified Investors.

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Crypto’s big week in Washington: Preparing for a crypto-friendly US

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Last week was monumental for Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem, ushering in key regulatory and legislative developments in the US. These changes not only underscore a shifting attitude toward digital assets in the US but also lay the groundwork for greater clarity and legitimacy for crypto globally in the years to come. Following are the five reasons we think last week was such a defining moment for crypto assets and why we think the current environment is setting this asset class up for a remarkable 2025.

Last week was monumental for Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem, ushering in key regulatory and legislative developments in the US. These changes not only underscore a shifting attitude toward digital assets in the US but also lay the groundwork for greater clarity and legitimacy for crypto globally in the years to come. Following are the five reasons we think last week was such a defining moment for crypto assets and why we think the current environment is setting this asset class up for a remarkable 2025.

  1. A paradigm shift at the SEC
  2. One of the most significant signals of change came from US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Acting Chair Mark Uyeda, who announced the establishment of a Crypto Task Force led by Commissioner Hester Peirce, affectionately known as ”Crypto Mom” for her engagement in the digital asset space while at the SEC. The task force, along with the favorable views on digital assets from incoming chair Paul Atkins, reflects an important step toward ending the contentious practice of ”regulation by enforcement,” which has long stymied innovation for crypto entrepreneurs and limited opportunity for US investors.
  3. The SEC’s subsequent decision to rescind Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) 121, which imposed restrictive accounting guidelines on banks wishing to custody crypto, further underscores the regulatory shift. Its repeal not only provides operational relief but also signals a more pragmatic approach to crypto oversight.
  4. These regulatory moves reflect a broader recognition by US authorities of the need for a framework that fosters innovation while ensuring investor protection. They set the stage for a future where digital assets are more seamlessly integrated into the financial system.
  5. New congressional leadership

Another pivotal development was the appointment of Senator Cynthia Lummis as chair of the newly created Subcommittee on Digital Assets. Lummis, a long-time advocate for Bitcoin and blockchain technology, is uniquely positioned to champion legislation that promotes innovation while addressing key concerns around market integrity and consumer protection.

Her leadership comes at a critical time, as Congress considers landmark legislation such as the Stablecoin Act and the Bitcoin Act. The Stablecoin Act, which could see approval this year, aims to establish clear guidelines for stablecoin issuance and use. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Act proposes an audacious goal: for the US government to accumulate 5% of bitcoin’s total supply. There are obstacles to this proposal, some of which I noted in August last year, but if enacted, this legislation could significantly impact Bitcoin’s global adoption and price trajectory.

  1. A game-changing executive order

The White House also contributed to the week’s momentum with a new executive order aimed at shaping the future of digital assets in the US. A key aspect of this order is its rejection of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in favor of fostering stablecoin development. President Trump has been vocal about his preference for implementing a ”digital dollar” on top of open blockchain networks, a move that aligns with crypto’s decentralized ethos.

This executive order also signals the end of ”Operation Chokepoint,” an informal campaign that had effectively debanked parts of the crypto industry. By reaffirming the importance of open networks and stablecoins, the administration is providing a clear direction for the role digital assets could play in the US financial system.

Perhaps the most intriguing development is the proposal to establish a government stockpile of digital assets. While the term “stockpile” has been carefully chosen over “reserve” to avoid direct comparisons with traditional currency reserves, the implications are nonetheless profound. The working group tasked with studying this proposal has expanded its scope beyond bitcoin to include crypto assets more broadly.

While it’s too early to predict how or whether the stockpile will be established, the study represents a thoughtful approach to a high-stakes decision. It could mark the beginning of a global trend, with other nations potentially racing to stockpile crypto assets as part of their sovereign holdings, which we’ve already seen this week with the Czech central bank.

  1. Steps toward a comprehensive regulatory framework

The week’s developments also highlight the ongoing evolution of regulatory characterization. US regulators are moving toward a more nuanced understanding of digital assets, which is essential for crafting effective policies. This trend was echoed in the revocation of SAB 121 and the growing momentum behind legislation like the Stablecoin Act. Additionally, the broader regulatory framework for market structure in digital assets, which could happen this year or next, will likely address issues ranging from trading practices to asset classification. These steps indicate a deliberate effort to integrate crypto into the financial system with precision and clarity.

  1. The start of a geopolitical race to embrace crypto

These developments, particularly the possibility of a US crypto stockpile, also raises the stakes on the global stage. Sovereign states accumulating crypto assets could lead to a new form of economic competition, where digital assets play a central role in national strategy.

The US government’s interest in studying this proposal reflects an understanding of crypto’s growing significance in global finance. It also aligns with the nation’s broader goals of maintaining technological and economic leadership.

What’s next?

The developments of the past week are part of a broader trend of increasing institutional and governmental recognition of crypto’s potential. However, several key milestones remain on the horizon:

Stablecoin Act Approval: This legislation, which could happen before the fourth quarter this year, will provide much-needed clarity for stablecoin issuers and users.

• Market Structure Framework: Expected by 2026, this framework will define the rules of engagement for trading and investing in digital assets.

• Bitcoin Act Progress: If the US government begins accumulating bitcoin, it could have profound implications for the asset’s supply dynamics and global adoption.

• Stockpile Study Results: The findings of the crypto stockpile working group could shape the long-term digital asset strategy in the US.

As these milestones approach, bitcoin and other crypto assets are likely to experience heightened volatility, but also greater legitimacy. Investors, policymakers, and innovators will continue to pay attention to these developments, as they could define the future of the global economy. While challenges remain, the direction is clear: crypto is moving from the fringes of finance to center stage. As these changes unfold, the crypto ecosystem is poised to evolve into a more robust and integral part of the global economy, presenting investors with attractive opportunities to get broad exposure to this emerging asset class.


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Bitwise har slutfört omprofileringen för europeiska ETPer

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Bitwise meddelade idag att Bitwise har slutfört omprofileringen av alla ETPer i sin europeiska produktsvit efter förra årets förvärv av ETC Group.

Bitwise meddelade idag att Bitwise har slutfört omprofileringen av alla ETPer i sin europeiska produktsvit efter förra årets förvärv av ETC Group.

Bitwise meddelade idag att företaget har slutfört omprofileringen av alla ETP:er i sin europeiska produktsvit efter förra årets förvärv av ETC Group. Flytten kommer när Bitwise ser ut att utöka sin position som marknadsledare på kryptomarknader 2025, ett år då ett antal strukturella uppåtgående trender sannolikt kommer att stärka kryptomarknaderna.

Bland de omdöpta produkterna finns Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1), Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32), Bitwise MSCI Digital Assets Select 20 ETP (DA20), och företagets flaggskeppsprodukt: – Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) . BTCE, som lanserades 2020, är den mest omsatta bitcoin-ETPen i Europa. För en översikt över alla produkter med deras omdöpta namn, se tabellen nedan.

Bitwise kommer att fortsätta att bredda kryptoåtkomst för investerare, tillhandahålla innovativa produkter i klassen, snabba insikter om den senaste marknadsutvecklingen och kämpa för transparens och ansvarsskyldighet under ett milstolpeår för kryptoindustrin.

Hunter Horsley, VD och medgrundare av Bitwise: ”Vi förväntar oss att 2025 kommer att bli ett avgörande år för krypto, med Bitcoin, Ethereum och Solana som var och en når rekordnivåer, och en mer kryptovänlig miljö i Washington ger välkommen klarhet till utrymmet. Bitwise ser fram emot att använda detta ögonblick för att stärka vår position som marknadsledare både i USA och Europa.”

Bitwise såg en betydande tillväxt under 2024, ett år då Bitcoin sköt i höjden till 103 992 dollar någonsin efter rekordlanseringen av spotbitcoin-ETFer i USA. Företaget passerade över 12 miljarder dollar i kundtillgångar och använde sitt momentum för att lansera nya institutionell-grade crypto staking ETP, nämligen den nyligen lanserade Bitwise Solana Staking ETP, och Bitwise Aptos Staking ETP, dessutom att lämna in ett formulär S-1 för en XRP spot-ETF i USA. Företagets Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1 | DE000A4AER62), en institutionellt fokuserad och kostnadseffektiv Bitcoin ETP med en Total Expense Ratio (TER) på 0,20 %, är också upplever ökad popularitet bland investerare.

En annan höjdpunkt under 2024 för Bitwise var lanseringen av Bitwise Onchain Solutions efter företagets förvärv av Attestant Limited, en institutionell Ethereum-staking provider med 3,7 miljarder dollar i insatta tillgångar vid tidpunkten för förvärvet.

Krypto kommer att skjuta i höjden 2025

År 2025 kommer antagandet av bitcoin och andra kryptotillgångar av företagsskattmästare att vara en annan viktig drivkraft för att stödja tillgångsklassen, sa Bitwise Head of Research Europe Dr Andre Dragosch i en studie denna månad. För tillfället har företag endast 4% av det totala tillgängliga Bitcoin-utbudet, ett antal som redan fördubblades förra året. Med ett totalt fritt kassaflöde mellan S&P 500-företag på 1,5 biljoner dollar – mer än dubbelt så mycket kapital som någonsin investerats i Bitcoin – erbjuder detta en oöverträffad tillväxtmöjlighet.

Bitwise kommer att fortsätta att positionera sig som en tankeledare med studier som ovan och flera andra, vilket ger en rik ström av forskning och marknadsanalyser för investerare.

Följande tabell visar Bitwises omdöpta European Crypto ETP-svit

KortnamnISINNytt ETP namnTidigare ETP namnTER
Single Asset
BTC1DE000A4AER62Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETPETC Group Core Bitcoin0.20% p.a.
BTCEDE000A27Z304Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETPETC Group Physical Bitcoin2.00% p.a.
ZETHDE000A3GMKD7Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETPETC Group Physical Ethereum1.49% p.a.
ESOLDE000A3GVKZ1Bitwise Physical Solana ETPETC Group Physical Solana1.95% p.a.
GXRPDE000A3GYNB0Bitwise Physical XRP ETPETC Group Physical XRP1.95% p.a.
RDANDE000A3GVKY4Bitwise Physical Cardano ETPETC Group Physical Cardano1.95% p.a.
ELTCDE000A3GN5J9Bitwise Physical Litecoin ETPETC Group Physical Litecoin2.00% p.a.
Staking
ET32DE000A3G90G9Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETPETC Group Ethereum Staking0.65% p.a.
BSOLDE000A4A59D2Bitwise Solana Staking ETPN/A0.85% p.a.
APTBDE000A4AJWU3Bitwise Aptos Staking ETPN/A0.85% p.a.
Diversified Index
DA20DE000A3G3ZL3Bitwise MSCI
Digital Assets Select 20 ETP
ETC Group MSCI
Digital Assets Select 20
1.49% p.a.

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Börshandlade produkter som ger exponering mot PYTH

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I denna text tittar vi närmare på olika börshandlade produkter som ger exponering mot PYTH. Precis som för många andra kryptovalutor och tokens finns det flera olika börshandlade produkter som spårar PYTH. Vi har identifierar fyra stycken sådana produkter.

I denna text tittar vi närmare på olika börshandlade produkter som ger exponering mot PYTH. Precis som för många andra kryptovalutor och tokens finns det flera olika börshandlade produkter som spårar PYTH. Vi har identifierar fem stycken sådana produkter.

De olika produkterna skiljer sig en del åt, en del av emittenter av ETPer arbetar med så kallad staking för vissa kryptovalutor, vilket gör att förvaltningsavgiften kan pressas ned. Det är emellertid inte så att alla dessa börshandlade produkter är identiska varför det är viktigt att läsa på.

Börshandlade produkter som ger exponering mot PYTH

Precis som för många andra kryptovalutor och tokens finns det flera olika börshandlade produkter som spårar PYTH. Det finns faktiskt en börshandlad produkt som är noterade på svenska börser vilket gör att den som vill handla med dessa slipper växlingsavgifterna, något som kan vara skönt om det gäller upprepade transaktioner i olika riktningar.

För ytterligare information om respektive ETP klicka på kortnamnet i tabellen nedan.

NamnTickerValutaUtlåningStakingISINAvgift
VanEck Pyth ETNVPYT USDNejNejDE000A4A5Z071,50%
VanEck Pyth ETNVPYT EURNejNejDE000A4A5Z071,50%
21Shares Pyth Network ETP PYTHEURNejNejCH13963899392,50%
21Shares Pyth Network ETP PYTHUSDNejNejCH13963899392,50%
Valour Pyth Network (PYTH) SEKValour PYTH SEKSEKNejNejCH11086793871,9%

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