Weekly Investment Insights – Correction presents buying opportunity

In 2017, ETF Securities will be broadening its weekly FX insights to cover all asset classes including commodities, equities and fixed income. We hope you continue to find these updates useful.

Highlights

• Optimism over growth prospects and accommodative monetary conditions have pushed European equity benchmarks to multi-month highs.
• Current levels look unsustainable in the short run as momentum wanes and bearish technical signals surface.
• Longer term prospects for European stocks appear more favourable, so any correction could be an opportunity for entry.

Near term top

European equity indices have been a beneficiary of the broad-based optimism that has characterised the market landscape since Trump’s election back in November. Most have recently set multi-month, if not multi-year, highs as analyst earnings forecasts have jumped on the back of an improved outlook for global growth based on reflationary trends. In addition, higher commodity prices, improved net interest margins and ongoing monetary stimulus have also helped to lift beleaguered resource and financial industry sectors that have previously weighed on performance. However, technical indicators suggest that across the board, the recent rally is losing steam, leaving indices such as the EURO STOXX 50, DAX 30, CAC 40 and the FTSE MIB vulnerable to a near term correction. Over the longer term, we believe that the stocks of core European states will remain attractively valued, especially when compared to their US counterparts, making any upcoming correction an excellent medium term opportunity to gain long exposure. This is especially true as economic indicators in Europe gather pace and continue to tick higher.

Momentum wanes

A “toppish” momentum divergence is where a particular index moves higher while its momentum indicators simultaneously trend lower and is typically interpreted as a bearish signal that a rally is coming to an end. This signal is in play for the EURO STOXX 50, DAX 30, CAC 40 and the FTSE MIB. All of these indices have recently reached highs which they have all failed to defend while their momentum indicators have turned lower. This implies that, at least in the near term, these benchmarks will come under pressure or at least remain subdued.

Eurozone economic uptick
Click to enlarge

Long term promise

In the medium term, we do not believe that any bearish pressure will last, as positive economic performance in Europe helps provide a boost to stock market performance. Barometers of economic strength, such as GDP growth, manufacturing surveys and industrial production, have all picked up markedly for the Eurozone since Q4 of last year (see Figure 1). The latest  manufacturing purchasing managers index reading for January recently came in at the highest level in over five years, pointing towards a sustained recovery for a region that has experienced an uninspiring rebound from the financial crisis. Furthermore, indications from the latest European Central Bank meeting suggest that monetary conditions are likely to remain accommodative for the foreseeable future as core inflationary pressures remain fragile, removing the likelihood of a near term policy shock. Combined with far more favourable cyclically adjusted valuation metrics (specifically cyclically adjusted price to earnings) than the US, European benchmarks looked well placed to move higher in the coming six months.

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Equity ETPs

3x

ETFS 3x Daily Long Euro Stoxx 50 (EU3L)
ETFS 3x Daily Short Euro Stoxx 50 (UES3)
ETFS 3x Daily Long CAC 40 (FR3L)
ETFS 3x Daily Short CAC 40 (FR3S)
ETFS 3x Daily Long DAX 30 (GY3L)
ETFS 3x Daily Short DAX 30 (GY3S)
ETFS 3x Daily Long FTSE MIB (IT3L)
ETFS 3x Daily Short FTSE MIB (IT3S)
ETFS 3x Daily Long FTSE 100 (UK3L)
ETFS 3x Daily Short FTSE 100 (UK3S)

2x

ETFS DAX® Daily 2x Long GO UCITS ETF (DEL2)
ETFS DAX® Daily 2x Short GO UCITS ETF (DES2)
ETFS FTSE 100® Leveraged (Daily 2x) GO UCITS ETF (LUK2)
ETFS FTSE 100® Super Short Strategy (Daily 2x) GO UCITS ETF (SUK2)

The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here.

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at professional investors. In Switzerland, this communication is only targeted at Regulated Qualified Investors.