ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Continued inflows for commodities as energy sector bucks the trend
Gold price continues higher, with 2016 inflows near US$1.9bn, as policy uncertainty reigns.
Palladium inflows hit six month highs on rising US car sales.
Profit-taking continues for crude oil ETPs, led by WTI products.
Gold ETP inflows have experienced withdrawals in only two weeks in 2016, with inflows totalling US$1.9bn. Gold’s rally appears to be set to continue as the market reacts to softer economic data in the US. The downside surprise for US jobs will keep uncertainty surrounding US Fed policy elevated and will certainly support gold as a potential inflation overshoot in the US seems likely. Nonetheless, the gold price needs to sustainably break above the US$1300/oz level for confidence in the precious metal to remain high. Although futures market positioning is reaching stretched levels, with myriad economic indicators to be released this week from the US, China, the Eurozone and the UK, any disappointment will boost gold higher.
Palladium inflows reach the highest level since November 2015. Although modest, the US$3.0mn inflows represent the second consecutive week of inflows, and the largest since late November 2015. Car sales have been buoyant with US light vehicle sales rising 5% over the past month (4% yoy), according to Autodata. Meanwhile, support for platinum group metals could be renewed in coming weeks, as the so-called ‘strike season’ in the South African mining industry looms. New wage negotiations are expected to occur in June, when current agreements lapse. All indications point to troubled negotiations, which led to strikes and a slump in production from the world’s largest PGM mining country.
Energy sector bucks the trend with fourth consecutive week of outflows led by oil ETPs. More profit-taking has been evident in oil ETPs, as prices struggle around US$45/bbl. Last week’s outflows of US$38.7mn takes outflows over the past month to US$236mn. While crude prices were supported late last week as a wild fire threatened a not insignificant amount of Canadian oil sands output, such support is likely to fade with ongoing builds in US oil storage volumes. Last week’s outflows of US$38.7mn takes outflows over the past month to US$236mn. 80% of last week’s outflows consisted of withdrawals from WTI crude ETPs.
Diversified industrial metal exposures lead sector with US34.1mn inflows. Tighter fundamentals across a range of industrial metals have seen investors look to gaining broad exposures in the sector, with inflows into broad basket industrial metals ETPs the third highest on record. Copper remains the preferred choice for individual industrial metals exposures, resuming the trend of inflows, which totalled US$5.6mn last week.
Key events to watch this week. The economic calendar is bulging this week, with key economic indicators from around the globe scheduled for release. A raft of Chinese data is released, including trade, retail sales and industrial production will likely be the catalyst for a continued move higher for commodities, particularly industrial metals. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation and GDP readings will leave no question on the outlook for ECB policy: more stimulus. Central bank report from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England should shed some light on the outlook for monetary policy, but typically guarded communications could see asset market volatility remain elevated.
Video Presentation
Martin Arnold, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
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The fourth quarter got off to a strong start, with bitcoin (BTC) bumping up against its all-time high late in the month and the Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) returning 7.2%.
Many crypto assets, however, struggled in October as the US elections and other uncertainties cast a shadow over bullish sentiment. Our CIO, Samir Kerbage, wrote about how the November 5th elections might impact investors and also joined a webinar with the CEO of The Digital Chamber to cover this topic in more depth. You can watch a replay of the webinar here.
As always, we are greatly appreciative of your trust in us and are here to answer any questions you may have.
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Market Review
October is typically a favorable month for crypto assets, particularly bitcoin (BTC). For this reason, the month is often referred to as “Uptober.” This year was no different: the Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) posted a 7.2% gain, despite slight declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stock indices. However, unlike September, the vast majority of altcoins did not have a positive month.
In the first ten days of the month, the NCI™ gave back its gains from September. All NCI™ constituents recorded declines, except for Uniswap, which announced plans to develop its own layer two network on Ethereum. From then on, a strong recovery began, particularly for Bitcoin and Solana, which were up double digits by the 29th. This rally coincided with the sharp increase in Trump’s odds in election betting markets, and brought Bitcoin close to its all-time high. In the last two days of the month, crypto assets retreated, following the strong pessimism that overtook traditional markets.
Among NCI™ constituents, the positive highlights were Bitcoin and Solana, with gains of 10.6% and 9.0%, respectively. On the downside, Ripple dropped 18.6% due to the SEC lawsuit, while MATIC fell more than 20%, apparently due to migration to a new token called POL.
Among CF Benchmarks’ sectoral indices, the smallest drop was in the Smart Contract Platforms Index, mitigated by the performance of its main constituent, Solana. A similar effect was seen in the Digital Culture index, which dropped 7.6%, despite its largest constituent, SuperVerse, rising more than 20%. The Decentralized Finance (DeFi) index declined by 8.6%, with only Uniswap showing gains among its constituents. The Vinter Hashdex Risk Parity Momentum Index saw a small drop of 0.6%, heavily influenced by the sharp losses in Ripple and Near. In all five indices, the largest asset posted gains, but most other constituents did not.
In the near future, the US election results could serve as a trigger for a new all-time high in Bitcoin, as well as a recovery for smaller assets that are lagging this year. We remain optimistic about the development of the crypto asset class over the medium and long term.
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Valour Digital Securities Limited (”Valour”), en ledande emittent av börshandlade produkter (”ETPs”) som ger förenklad tillgång till digitala tillgångar, har introducerat en ny fysiskt stödd, högavkastande Bitcoin (”BTC”) ETP för tyska investerare i samarbete med Core Foundation, en organisation dedikerad till utvecklingen av Core blockchain-nätverket (”Core Chain”). Detta tillägg till Valours portfölj på Xetra erbjuder ett nytt, fysiskt backat alternativ vid sidan av det avkastningsfokuserade certifikatet som lanserades tidigare i år, för att möta olika investerares behov. ETP ger tyska investerare exponering mot Bitcoin med en initial fast avkastning på 1,40 % (årligt) på Xetra premiumbörsen. ”Denna nya insats-ETP representerar en betydande möjlighet för investerare. 1VBS investerar inte bara världens starkaste kryptovaluta utan genererar också passiva intäkter genom en innovativ insatsmekanism. Denna dubbla fördel förbättrar en investerares investeringsstrategi samtidigt som den förenklar processen och gör det möjligt att tjäna belöningar utan den tekniska komplexiteten med att hantera underliggande tillgångar och insatsprocesser. Det är ett övertygande alternativ för välinformerade investerare som vill växa sina portföljer i en reglerad miljö.”, säger Elaine Buehler, produktchef på Valour. Handel med 1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) ETP (ISIN: GB00BRBV3124) började den 1 november 2024, med en förvaltningsavgift på 0,9 %.
”Vi är glada över att ge tyska investerare en ny, fysiskt stödd, avkastningsbärande Bitcoin ETP på Xetra, som erbjuder säker och förenklad tillgång till Bitcoins tillväxtpotential med en attraktiv initial fast avkastning på 1,40 %”, säger Olivier Roussy Newton, VD för DeFi Technologies. ”Detta partnerskap med Core Foundation understryker vårt engagemang för att utveckla pålitliga, institutionellt anpassade digitala tillgångslösningar. Genom att upprätthålla full förvaringskontroll inom ett kompatibelt ramverk gör vi det möjligt för investerare att dra nytta av Bitcoin-insats med den säkerhet och förtroende de förväntar sig av reglerade finansiella produkter.”
Core chain: Förbättra säkerhet och avkastning
Core blockchain-nätverket, en Bitcoin-driven lager-ett blockkedja som är kompatibel med Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) smarta kontrakt, stöder 1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS). Genom att utnyttja 50 % av Bitcoin-mining-hashkraften förbättrar Core Chain säkerheten i utbyte mot att låsa upp Bitcoin-verktyg och belöningar, vilket gör den till den mest Bitcoin-anpassade EVM-blockkedjan, med funktioner inklusive BTCfi och Bitcoin-insats.
1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) förenklar Bitcoin-investeringar, vilket gör det säkert och tillgängligt för investerare som söker Bitcoins tillväxtpotential. Avkastningen krediteras varje produkts Digital Asset-rättigheter och återspeglas i Net Asset Value (NAV) dagligen.
Avkastningsgenerering och frihetsberövande säkerhet
1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) ETP genererar avkastning genom att delegera Bitcoins till en Core Chain-validator genom icke-förvarsbaserad, infödd Bitcoin-insats. Insatsbelöningar, mottagna som CORE-tokens i en separat plånbok, konverteras till Bitcoins och läggs till ETPens NAV och egen plånbok dagligen. De underliggande tillgångarna i ETP finns alltid kvar i Bitcoins. Core Chain, en säker och skalbar lager-ett-blockkedja som drivs av Bitcoin, stöds av en unik ”Satoshi Plus”-konsensusmekanism som gör det möjligt för Bitcoin-gruvarbetare att delegera Proof of Work (”DPoW”) till Core-validerare och därigenom utveckla potentialen för Bitcoin -stödda decentraliserade applikationer.
Under hela insatsprocessen behåller Valor full frihetsberövande kontroll, vilket säkerställer säkerhet och efterlevnad. Bitcoins satsas säkert genom en ”insatstransaktion”, en infödd Bitcoin-transaktionstyp med en kortvarig låsningsperiod, inklusive insatsdetaljer som Core Validator och belöningsadress. Under lockupen kan de underliggande Bitcoins inte överföras eller skäras ned, och de förblir under Valours förvarskontroll med en reglerad depåman hela tiden.
Om Valour
Valour Inc. och Valor Digital Securities Limited (tillsammans, ”Valour”) utfärdar börshandlade produkter (”ETPs”) som gör det möjligt för privatpersoner och institutionella investerare att få tillgång till digitala tillgångar på ett enkelt och säkert sätt via sina traditionella bankkonton. Valour är en del av kapitalförvaltningsverksamheten inom DeFi Technologies Inc. (CBOE CA: DEFI) (GR: R9B) (OTC: DEFTF).
Sedan i fredags har tre nya tematiska ETFer, börshandlade fonder utgivna av Invesco kunnat handlas på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt.
Invesco Artificial Intelligence Enablers UCITS ETF (IVAI) ger investerare tillgång till företag över hela världen som utvecklar teknologier, infrastruktur och tjänster som driver tillväxten och funktionaliteten av artificiell intelligens (AI). Investeringar görs framför allt i företag som erbjuder hårdvara, mjukvara och lösningsutveckling för AI-algoritmer, infrastrukturtjänster för dataintensiva AI-funktioner och produkter samt tjänster för AI-applikationer och datahantering.
Invesco Cybersecurity UCITS ETF (ICBR) investerar globalt i företag verksamma inom IT-säkerhetsområdet. De erbjuder system för att upptäcka, försvara mot eller förhindra cyberattacker, nätverks- och internetsäkerhet, autentisering och identitetshantering, samt applikationssäkerhet, datasäkerhet, kryptering och skydd.
Invesco Defence Innovation UCITS ETF (IDFN) fokuserar på företag över hela världen som utvecklar toppmoderna vapen, försvarssystem och gränssäkerhetslösningar. Fokus ligger på aktiviteter som smarta gränser och säkrande av kritisk infrastruktur, militära tillämpningar av cybersäkerhet, rymdsystem, robotik, drönare, bärbar teknologi och virtuell verklighet.
Produktutbudet i Deutsche Börses XTF-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 278 ETFer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 16 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer i Europa.