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Commodity bounce supports Aussie
Market Insight – Foreign Exchange – Commodity bounce supports Aussie
11th March 2016
AUD rebounds
On January 18th, concerns over Chinese growth prospects and weakening terms of trade pushed the AUD/USD exchange rate to the lowest level in approximately seven years (30th March 2009). Since 2012, the Australian currency has experienced a relentless decline as the nation’s primary commodity exports of iron ore and coal have suffered from the moderation of Chinese industrial demand. However, in the past two weeks commodity prices and risk sentiment have rebounded from what appears to have been a floor and have supported a 5.8%* appreciation of the AUD on a trade weighted basis (see Figure 1). Recent readings of Australian growth, headline inflation and consumer sentiment have also highlighted the success of existing monetary easing measures and the resilience of the Australian economy in the face of an ailing natural resource sector, contributing further to the AUD’s recent strength. In the coming month, momentum from rising commodity prices and positive risk sentiment is likely to persist, offering further support for the AUD against its major currency counterparts.
Figure 1
(click to enlarge)
Inflation and growth impress
Prospects for the Australian economy look less gloomy following a recent slew of positive data. The latest growth numbers show that during the three months to December, the Australian economy grew by 3%* (on an annualised basis) and inflation rose to 1.7% (Figure 2). Both results surpassed analyst expectations and reflect the success of recent easing measures in mitigating the impact of falling investment and revenue from the nation’s vast mining sector. While in the longer term the economy still faces challenges, in the near term the backdrop looks strong enough to support a continuation of the recent AUD rally.
Figure 2
(click to enlarge)
More easing unlikely in the near term
While the market is currently pricing in further monetary easing this year, it is unlikely that any action will be taken by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its April monetary policy meeting. A statement from Glenn Stevens, the RBA governor, made during the last monetary policy meeting explicitly stated that the likely catalyst of any additional easing of monetary policy is “continued low inflation”. With Q1 ‘16 inflation data not due until the 27th April, it is unlikely that the RBA will implement further measures before its meeting in May.
Short positioning to unwind further
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data shows that since mid-February, net speculative AUD positioning turned positive for the first time since September 2014 (see Figure 3). This move has been driven primarily by an increase in speculative longs to multi-year highs and also in part by a fall in speculative shorts. However, speculative shorts remain elevated by historical standards and further unwinding of short positions could support further upside to the AUD against the US Dollar.
Figure 3
(click to enlarge)
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The impact of US tariffs continues to dominate market sentiment and risk assets, including crypto, struggled with this uncertainty throughout the month. The Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) fell 4.46% in March as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropped 5.63% and 7.61%, respectively.
Despite the macro uncertainty from Washington, US policymakers are continuing to embrace crypto in an unprecedented way, including launching a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, Digital Asset Stockpile, and engaging in expansive work at the regulatory agencies and in Congress.
Our team spent the last week of the month in Washington, meeting with regulators to share our experiences and views on what’s most important for crypto investors in the US. In his latest Notes from the CIO, Samir Kerbage shares what he learned from these meetings and how investors should be thinking about the new regulatory regime in the US.
As always, we are greatly appreciative of your trust in us and are here to answer any questions you may have.
-Your Partners at Hashdex
Market Review
March was marked by the tariff dispute triggered by the Trump administration. Back-and-forth fiscal policies, threats, and retaliations dominated the month’s agenda. The uncertain macroeconomic environment put investors into a defensive stance and negatively impacted crypto assets. The Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) closed the month down -4.46% after a period of high volatility. Major market indices, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, also recorded steep declines of -5.63% and -7.61%, respectively. These concurrent drawdowns across equities and crypto underscored March’s broad market caution, as trade war uncertainty prompted investors to flee risk assets.
During times of uncertainty, it is common to observe increased correlation among different classes of risk assets. This pattern played out in March: the 6-month rolling correlation of monthly returns between the NCI™ and the Nasdaq-100 surged to roughly 0.91 (see chart below), its highest level since 2021, indicating that crypto assets were moving almost in lockstep with tech stocks. This spike in correlation confirms that crypto was behaving like a high-beta extension of the tech sector—an amplified version of the Nasdaq-100. The lack of clarity in the global landscape leads investors to reduce their risk exposure and seek protection, a movement known in financial markets as “risk-off” allocation.
6-Month Rolling Correlation of Monthly Returns between the Nasdaq Crypto Index and Nasdaq-100 (Apr 2021–Apr 2025).
The chart illustrates how this correlation has been increasing since the American elections in November 2024 and spiked to approximately 0.91 in the most recent period—a multi-year high. This visual evidence reinforces the view that crypto assets have been moving closely in tandem with tech stocks, effectively acting as a high-beta version of the Nasdaq-100 during the March risk-off phase.
Following this trend, risk reduction was evident within the crypto asset class. Among the NCI’s constituents, Bitcoin (BTC) posted a decline of -1.93%, withstanding the downturn far better than other constituents such as Ether (ETH, -17.4%) and Litecoin (LTC, -34.6%). BTC’s relatively mild drop in this sell-off aligns with the idea that it increasingly trades like a high-beta proxy for large-cap tech. It still declined, but less severely, whereas smaller-cap crypto assets behaved more like speculative growth stocks and suffered outsized losses. The only exception to the negative results was Cardano (ADA), which surprised with a positive return of 3.88% despite no significant protocol developments during the month.
Thematic indices also faced a challenging environment. As highlighted in previous letters, smaller capitalization assets tend to suffer more during periods of market stress, mirroring how speculative small-cap stocks are hit hardest in equity sell-offs. The biggest negative highlight was the Digital Culture Index, which dropped -17.45%, followed by the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Smart Contract Platform (Web3) indices, which fell -16.73% and -12.07%, respectively. The Vinter Hashdex Risk Parity Momentum Index recorded a negative result of -8.26% but outperformed the three other thematic indices, benefiting from its high allocation in BTC and TRX (which gained 4.68%). The heavy weighting in BTC – the more resilient large-cap crypto – helped cushion this index, underscoring the relevance of the momentum factor in a well-diversified strategy during times of market stress.
The market remains on the lookout for the outcome of the fiscal policy discussions, hoping for a reduction in uncertainties and an end to the tariff war. That would likely mark the moment when investors regain their appetite for risk assets, including crypto assets. The U.S. government has also signaled interest in advancing the crypto agenda, a development that could drive the asset class to a new level of adoption. We remain confident in our positive outlook for the rest of the year and the long term.
Top Stories
US creates Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile
The Bitcoin Reserve will be capitalized with BTC owned by the Department of Treasury, which could further increase via new budget-neutral acquisitions. The stockpile will also include assets owned by the Treasury. This marks a major milestone, with the US government starting to integrate major crypto assets and continues the new administration’s work to lead the global crypto economy.
Stablecoins surpass $230 billion in market value
The total stablecoins market capitalization surpassed $230 billion amid institutional demand for dollar-backed digital assets. This showcases one of the most successful applications for crypto technology enhancing traditional financial payments. It could also pave the way for new use cases that require a strong and reliable global payment system.
FDIC eases banks’ ability to engage in crypto activities
The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off. By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily over crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets into the financial system.
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