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Commodities slide as investors misread policy signals

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Commodity Monthly Monitor - Commodities slide as investors misread policy signals Confusion around China’s currency policy drives volatility across the commodity complex.

Commodity Monthly Monitor – Commodities slide as investors misread policy signals

August/ September 2015

Summary

Confusion around China’s currency policy drives volatility across the commodity complex. With many market participants thinking the change in Chinese currency policy was a competitive devaluation rather than a move to introduce more market dynamics, fears that the authorities have become desperate to reignite economic growth has led to a sell-off in cyclical commodities. At the same time, the gold price has benefited, reversing some of the negative sentiment towards the metal we have seen in past months. As the dust settles, we believe that industrial metals will grind higher as supply tightens and the market realises that Chinese demand is not bad as feared. Although consensus expectations are for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, recent Fed minutes indicate it is not a sure thing and so some of the US dollar pressure on commodities may ease. The capitulation in oil prices has driven demand higher and will likely provide high-cost producers the incentive to cut back on production. US$200bn of capex cuts have announced across the oil and gas sector, which will help the market come closer to balance as we move toward year-end and into 2016.

Strengthening El Niño to become a catalyst for wheat, corn, cocoa and sugar prices in coming months. While plentiful supplies have led to wheat, corn and sugar price declines over the past month, an intensifying El Niño is likely to impact sensitive growing periods for these crops and drive prices higher.

Uncertainty around Chinese currency policy reinstates gold’s haven status. In recent weeks gold has increased as China’s change in currency policy caught investors off-guard. That contrasts the waning defensive role of the metal during the worst of the Greek financial crisis.

Negative sentiment surrounding the Chinese growth outlook weighs on industrial metals. Renminbi depreciation has prompted speculation that the outlook for economic growth will not favour Chinese metal demand. At the margin the stronger US Dollar has also adversely impacted industrial metals prices.

Oil prices capitulate as OPEC production hits a 3-year high. Higher OPEC production and rising US rig counts have driven prices sharply lower. We believe that these low prices are likely to drive non-OPEC, non-US, high-cost production down, shifting global market share.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

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This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

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B4NZ ETC en eurohedgad satsning på WTI Crude

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BNPP RICI Enhanced WTI Öl (ER) EUR Hedge ETC (B4NZ ETC) med ISIN DE000PZ9REW2, försöker följa RICI Enhanced WTI Crude Oil (EUR Hedged)-index. RICI Enhanced WTI Crude Oil (EUR Hedged)-index spårar priset på terminskontrakt på WTI Crude Oil. Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR).

BNPP RICI Enhanced WTI Öl (ER) EUR Hedge ETC (B4NZ ETC) med ISIN DE000PZ9REW2, försöker följa RICI Enhanced WTI Crude Oil (EUR Hedged)-index. RICI Enhanced WTI Crude Oil (EUR Hedged)-index spårar priset på terminskontraktWTI Crude Oil. Valutasäkrad till euro (EUR).

Denna ETCs TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 1,20 % p.a. BNPP RICI Enhanced WTI Öl (ER) EUR Hedge ETC är den enda ETC som följer RICI Enhanced WTI Crude Oil (EUR Hedged)-index. Denna ETC replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda syntetiskt med en swap.

BNPP RICI Enhanced WTI Öl (ER) EUR Hedge ETC är en mycket liten ETC med tillgångar på 0 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETC lanserades den 7 augusti 2019 och har sin hemvist i Nederländerna.

Information

ISINDE000PZ9REW2
Securities identification number (German WKN)PZ9REW
BloombergB4NZ GY
ReutersB4NZ.DE
TypeETC
CurrencyEUR
Currency hedgedYes, EUR Hedge
Roll optimizedYes
LeveragedNo
Physical deliveryNo
Total Return Yes
ExchangeFrankfurt Stock Exchange (Regulated Market – Xetra®), Stuttgart Stock Exchange
Trading periods08:15 am – 20:00 pm
Maturityopen end

Handla B4NZ ETC

BNPP RICI Enhanced WTI Öl (ER) EUR Hedge ETC (B4NZ ETC) är en europeisk börshandlad produkt. Denna ETC handlas på till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURB4NZ

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XZEP ETF köper aktier i företag i Europa med höga ESG-betyg

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Xtrackers MSCI Europe ESG UCITS ETF 1D (XZEP ETF) med ISIN IE0004ZJGWT9, strävar efter att spåra MSCI Europe Low Carbon SRI Leaders-index. MSCI Europe Low Carbon SRI Leaders-index spårar stora och medelstora värdepapper från Europa. Endast företag med låga koldioxidutsläpp och högt ESG-betyg (environmental, social and governance) beaktas. Moderindex är MSCI Europe.

Xtrackers MSCI Europe ESG UCITS ETF 1D (XZEP ETF) med ISIN IE0004ZJGWT9, strävar efter att spåra MSCI Europe Low Carbon SRI Leaders-index. MSCI Europe Low Carbon SRI Leaders-index spårar stora och medelstora värdepapper från Europa. Endast företag med låga koldioxidutsläpp och högt ESG-betyg (environmental, social and governance) beaktas. Moderindex är MSCI Europe.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18 % p.a. Xtrackers MSCI Europe ESG UCITS ETF 1D är den billigaste ETF som följer MSCI Europe Low Carbon SRI Leaders index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

Xtrackers MSCI Europe ESG UCITS ETF 1D är en stor ETF med tillgångar på 999 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETF lanserades den 12 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Index nyckelfunktioner

MSCI Europe Low Carbon SRI Leaders Index syftar till att spegla resultatet på följande marknad:

Stora och medelstora företag från utvecklade europeiska marknader

Granskas kvartalsvis

Handla XZEP ETF

Xtrackers MSCI Europe ESG UCITS ETF 1D (XZEP ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURXZEP

Största innehav

ISINNamnVikt %LandIndustri
DK0062498333NOVO NORDISK CLASS B9.06%DanmarkHealth Care
GB0009895292ASTRAZENECA PLC4.73%StorbritannienHealth Care
CH0012005267NOVARTIS AG4.21%SchweizHealth Care
DE0007164600SAP4.17%TysklandInformationsteknologi
GB0005405286HSBC HOLDINGS PLC3.29%StorbritannienFinans
FR0000121972SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC2.68%FrankrikeIndustri
FR0000120321LOREAL SA2.10%FrankrikeDagligvaror
FR0000120073LAIR LIQUIDE SOCIETE ANONYME POUR2.04%FrankrikeMaterials
CH0012221716ABB LTD1.77%SchweizIndustri
GB00B2B0DG97RELX PLC1.70%StorbritannienIndustrials
CH0011075394ZURICH INSURANCE GROUP AG1.53%SchweizFinans
FR0000052292HERMES INTERNATIONAL1.44%FrankrikeSällanköpsvaror
FR0000131104BNP PARIBAS SA1.41%FrankrikeFinans
DE0008430026MUENCHENER RUECKVERSICHERUNGS-GESE1.31%TysklandFinans
FR0000120628AXA SA1.24%FrankrikeFinans

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Betydande nedskärningar i flygtrafiken på grund av minskade resor till USA

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United Airlines kommer att göra betydande nedskärningar på grund av nedgången i internationella resor till och från USA. Det amerikanska flygbolaget kommer bland annat att

United Airlines kommer att göra betydande nedskärningar på grund av nedgången i internationella resor till och från USA. Det amerikanska flygbolaget kommer bland annat att

• Stänga eller minska avgångarna på en mängd olika rutter 2025-2026

• Ta bort ett antal äldre 767, 757 och 777 flygplan från flottan

• Prognostiserade uppsägningar efter 12-24 månader, vilket förväntas vara betydande nedskärningar.

Första rutten som United Airlines ställer in är Boeing 737 MAX8-tjänsten mellan Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) och Toronto Pearson International Airport (YYZ). Rutten, som skulle börja den 22 maj 2025, togs i all tysthet bort från Uniteds hemsida.

Uniteds äldsta operativa Boeing 777-200 N777UA och #7 på produktionslinjen är 30 år gammal

Uniteds äldsta operativa Boeing 757-200 N58101 är 31 år gammal

Uniteds äldsta operativa Boeing 767-300 N641UA är 34 år gammal

Rutter till destinationer som Australien, Asien och Europa har upplevt en klar minskning av bokningar för nästan alla flygbolag

Ett flygbolag erbjuder resor från Sydney till Los Angeles (med mellanlandning i Nadi, Fiji) för AUD$625 / USD$396 inklusive skatter/bagage/måltider tur och retur. Analytiker säger att om nedgången fortsätter riskerar rutter att ställas in och kommentarer tyder på att dessa prisnivåer bara återvinner bränsle som bränts per sittplats

Börshandlade fonder för att investera i resor och turism

Alla tre börshandlade fonder som investerar i resor och turism handlas på tyska Xetra. Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i dessa ETFer genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  NordnetSAVRDEGIRO och Avanza.

Namn
ISIN
KortnamnAvgift
%
Utdelnings-
policy
HemvistReplikerings-
metod
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Travel & Leisure UCITS ETF (DE)
DE000A0H08S0
EXV90,46%UtdelandeTysklandFysisk replikation
HANetf The Travel UCITS ETF
IE00BMFNW783
7RIP0,69%AckumulerandeIrlandFysisk replikation
Invesco European Travel Sector UCITS ETF
IE00B5MJYC95
SC0R0,20%AckumulerandeIrlandSyntetisk replikation

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