Commodity ETP Weekly – Commodities end volatile week only slightly down
Inflows into oil ETPs reach highest level since March 2015 as investors bet on unsustainably low prices.
Physical gold receives highest inflows since August 2015 as investors hedge against market malaise.
Industrial metal basket ETPs see highest outflows since July 2015.
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Highlights
After a violent crash in cyclical commodities and other risk assets, prices started to recover in the second half of the week.
In contrast to the futures market, ETP investors have been contrarian and have built long positions, particularly in oil.
Market malaise has maintained strong interest in gold as a haven asset.
Inflows into oil ETPs reach highest level since March 2015 as investors bet on unsustainably low prices. By Wednesday last week, WTI and Brent were down 28.3% and 25.2% YTD respectively. Such low prices were clearly unsustainable and investors bought US$97.0mn of long oil ETPs and divested US$26.6mn of short oil ETPs to take advantage of a rebound. On Thursday WTI and Brent rebounded 11% and 5%, respectively. One of the catalysts behind the sharp decline in oil prices was news that sanctions on Iran will be lifted, paving the way for Iran to increase its oil exports. Unfortunately Iran has been guiding the market to think that it can raise exports by 1.1mn barrels, whereas in reality, we believe at most it will increase exports by 300,00o barrels. Even factoring in a generous rise in Iranian oil, the market would be in a supply deficit at end-2016 if demand increases to 96.71 mb/d by Q4 2016 from 95.28mb/d in Q4 2015, as the IEA predicts. We believe prices will end the year between the marginal cost of $40 and the fiscal break even cost $70 per barrel.
Physical gold receives highest inflows since August 2015 as investors hedge against market malaise. Gold has traditionally been the first port of call in times of market stress. While most people cannot understand why cyclical assets fell so hard so fast, many realised that gold performs well in times of panic and went long the yellow metal while waiting for an entry point back into other cyclicals. Gold rose 0.7% last week, 3.4% YTD. Inflows into physical gold ETPs rose to US$85.3mn.
Industrial metal basket ETPs see highest outflows since July 2015. Investor panic saw US$8.9mn redemptions from industrial metal baskets. That came even though most industrial metal prices were only marginally down by mid-week and ended the week higher after Chinese GDP data confirmed strong demand from the largest consumer of metals. Both long and short copper ETPs saw outflows of US$2.7mn and US$1.5mn respectively, highlighting polarised views on the metal. The International Copper Study Group forecasts a supply deficit of 0.5% this year, which will be the 6th consecutive year of a supply shortfall. We don’t think that the market can continue to ignore the increasing tightness in the metal and prices are likely to recover after having fallen 23.6% in the past year.
Key events to watch this week. The market will be keenly tuned into the Fed’s post-policy meeting statement and press conference to hear how the US central bank will react to the recent market volatility. The ECB has already hinted that it will offer more QE, but we expect the Fed to hold steady with its announced policy trajectory of continuing to increase rates to ward off inflationary pressures and keep a buoyant labour market in-check. Currently the market is only pricing in one rate increase this year, while the Fed has indicated it will move four times. We expect US dollar strength, which has been weighting on commodity market performance, to fall away when the market gets in line with Fed thinking. The BoJ and RBNZ will also host their policy meetings this week.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com
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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
Amundi Fixed Maturity 2027 German Bund Government Bond UCITSETFDist (AK8G ETF) med ISIN LU2780871823 försöker spåra FTSE German Government 2027 Maturity index. FTSE German Government 2027 Maturity Index följer tyska statsobligationer. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2027) i indexet. Betyg: AAA. Löptid: december 2027 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,09 % p.a. Amundi Fixed Maturity 2027 German Bund Government Bond UCITSETFDist är den enda ETF som följer FTSE German Government 2027 Maturity index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (halvårsvis).
Denna lanserades den 25 april 2024 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.
Investeringsmål
Amundi Fixed Maturity 2027 German Bund Government Bond UCITSETFDistförsöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, utvecklingen av FTSE German Government 2027 Maturity Index (”Indexet”) oavsett om trenden är stigande eller fallande, och att minimera tracking error mellan delfondens nettotillgångsvärde och indexets utveckling. Den förväntade nivån av tracking error under normala marknadsförhållanden anges i delfondens prospekt. Indexet är ett totalavkastningsindex: de kuponger som betalas av indexbeståndsdelarna ingår i indexavkastningen.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
Franklin FTSE Saudi Arabia UCITS ETF (FLXS ETF) med ISIN IE000C7DDDX4, försöker följa FTSE Saudi Arabia 30/18 Capped-index. FTSE Saudi Arabia 30/18 Capped-index följer den saudiarabiska aktiemarknaden. Den största positionen i indexet är begränsad till en vikt på 30 procent. Alla andra bolag i indexet är begränsade till 18 procent.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,39 % p.a. Franklin FTSE Saudi Arabia UCITSETFär den enda ETF som följer FTSE Saudi Arabia 30/18 Capped-index. ETF:n replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
Denna ETF lanserades den 28 oktober 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Sammanfattning av fondens mål
Fondens mål är att ge exponering mot stora och medelstora aktier i Saudiarabien. Fonden strävar efter att följa resultatet för FTSE Saudi Arabia 30/18 Capped Index-NR (”Indexet”) så nära som möjligt, oavsett om indexnivån stiger eller faller, samtidigt som man försöker minimera spårningen så långt som möjligt felet mellan fondens och indexets resultat.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
HODL fyller sex år! 🎉 21Shares var den första emittenten att erbjuda en fysisk krypto-ETP-korg i Europa. Denna lanserades när BTC handlades till 4 400 $. Idag svävar den runt $91 000! Upptäck mer om HODL (eller 21XH som den också kallas beroende på börs) och dess resa.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
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