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CAD heading lower

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Foreign Exchange - CAD heading lower Weaker oil prices should see short positions mount against the CAD and the USD/CAD climb higher.

Trade Idea – Foreign Exchange – CAD heading lower

Highlights

  • The CAD has decoupled from oil prices as economic prospects wane.
  • Bank of Canada (BoC) has indicated that further stimulus was considered at the latest monetary policy meeting.
  • Weaker oil prices should see short positions mount against the CAD and the USD/CAD climb higher.

Oil prices offer little support

Since OPEC took the surprise decision to limit production last month crude benchmarks have managed to settle in a new trading range in and around the psychologically important $50/bbl level. Typically, this move would have lent support to the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against its major currency counterparts (due to its status as a commodity currency) but on this occasion it has failed to do so (see Figure 1). Instead, the currency has suffered from a widening nominal yield differential with the US (see Figure 1) and meagre economic prospects. This has helped to keep the USD/CAD moving on a well-established upward path for some time and the trend appears well placed to continue. We see a high likelihood of upcoming oil price weakness and an increasingly dovish bias from the Bank of Canada (BoC) helping to push the pair higher in the next few months.

(click to enlarge)

Crude fragility and dovish inclinations

Earlier this week, comments from the Iraqi oil minister claiming that the embattled nation should be exempt from any OPEC production agreement highlighted the challenges the cartel faces in imposing any limits. Several of its members are facing significant financial and geopolitical pressures (Iraq, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia etc.) and so applying country level quotas is almost certain to face obstacles. Until now the market has perceived the deal optimistically but the difficult practicalities of implementing the agreement are likely to see oil prices retrace a portion of their recent gains. This will likely add to bearish sentiment against the CAD and may prompt a monetary reaction from the BoC.

Recent comments and actions from the BoC have been mixed. At the latest meeting the central bank held interest rates steady (as broadly expected) and described risks to the inflation outlook as “roughly balanced”, a positive shift from “tilted to the downside” in the previous meeting. However in a surprising turn, the BoC governor, Stephen Poloz, did mention that the governing council “actively discussed the possibility of adding more stimulus”. In addition, the BoC reduced both its inflation and growth forecasts for this year and the next. While these actions failed to inspire a market repricing of future interest cuts, it does show a return to a dovish bias which may grow if manufacturing, trade and inflation data continue to disappoint.

etfs2

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Shorts could mount

Net speculative positioning towards the CAD fell into negative territory at the end of last month, but still remains moderate. The move resulted from a reduction in long positions rather than a build-up in shorts, which remain a fraction of January levels due to recent strength in oil prices (see Figure 2). Any weakness in oil could see shorts build up and send the USD/CAD to higher levels. The pair is on a strong upward path and is only likely to face resistance at the 1.356 level, which is near March highs and would represent a 50% retracement of its decline earlier in the year.

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Currency ETPs

EUR Base

ETFS Long CAD Short EUR (ECAD)
ETFS Short CAD Long EUR (CADE)

GBP Base

ETFS Long CAD Short GBP (GBCA)
ETFS Short CAD Long GBP (CAGB)

USD Base

ETFS Long CAD Short USD (LCAD)
ETFS Short CAD Long USD (SCAD)

3x

ETFS 3x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA3)
ETFS 3x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE3)

5x

ETFS 5x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA5)
ETFS 5x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE5)

Currency Baskets

ETFS Bullish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (SCOM)
ETFS Bearish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (LCOM)

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”). FXL is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.

This communication is only targeted at professional investors. In Switzerland, this communication is only targeted at Regulated Qualified Investors.

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Börshandlade fonder för den som vill investera i skogen

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Timmer och skogar är garanter för att mildra klimatförändringarna och en naturlig träkälla. Skogarna täcker stora landområden, utgör en oumbärlig åtgärd för att minska koldioxidutsläppen och är de främsta producenterna av syre. Det finns även börshandlade fonder för den som vill investera i skogen.

Timmer och skogar är garanter för att mildra klimatförändringarna och en naturlig träkälla. Skogarna täcker stora landområden, utgör en oumbärlig åtgärd för att minska koldioxidutsläppen och är de främsta producenterna av syre. Det finns även börshandlade fonder för den som vill investera i skogen.

Detta ger möjligheter för företag som äger skog eller är inblandade i skogsskötseln. Träförädlingsindustrin är också en del av denna trend, liksom börsnoterade skogsfonder i form av REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts). Dessa företag kan användas för att skapa ett index.

I den här investeringsguiden hittar du alla ETFer som gör att du kan investera i skogen. För närvarande finns det ett index tillgängligt spårat av två olika ETFer som båda har en årlig förvaltningskostnad på 0,65 procent.

Skogs-ETFer i jämförelse

När man väljer en ETF för skogsbruk bör man överväga flera andra faktorer utöver metodiken för det underliggande indexet och prestanda för en ETF. För bättre jämförelse hittar du en lista över alla skogs-ETFer med detaljer om namn, kortnamn, kostnad, utdelningspolicy, hemvist och replikeringsmetod. För ytterligare information om respektive börshandlad fond klicka på kortnamnet för att ta del av allt vi skrivit om dessa.

Namn
ISIN
KortnamnAvgift %UtdelningspolicyHemvistReplikeringsmnetod
iShares Global Timber & Forestry UCITS ETF
IE00B27YCF74
IUSB0.65%UtdelandeIrlandFysisk replikering
iShares Global Timber & Forestry UCITS ETF USD (Acc)
IE0003ZXNJY5
WOOE0.65%AckumulerandeIrlandFysisk replikering

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EDOG ETF med fokus på telemedicin och digital hälsa

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Global X Telemedicine & Digital Health UCITS ETF Dist GBP (EDOG ETF) med ISIN IE00BLR6QC17, försöker följa indexet Solactive Telemedicine & Digital Health. Solactive Telemedicine & Digital Health-index spårar företag över hela världen som är verksamma inom området telemedicin och digital hälsa.

Global X Telemedicine & Digital Health UCITS ETF Dist GBP (EDOG ETF) med ISIN IE00BLR6QC17, försöker följa indexet Solactive Telemedicine & Digital Health. Solactive Telemedicine & Digital Health-index spårar företag över hela världen som är verksamma inom området telemedicin och digital hälsa.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,68 % p.a. Global X Telemedicine & Digital Health UCITS ETF Dist GBP är den billigaste ETF som följer Solactive Telemedicine & Digital Health-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (halvårsvis).

Global X Telemedicine & Digital Health UCITS ETF Dist GBP är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 0 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 17 december 2020 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Skäl att överväga EDOG

Hög tillväxtpotential: Den globala telemedicinmarknaden ökade med 35 % från 2019 till 2020 och översteg 55 miljarder dollar. Prognoser tyder på att marknaden kan nå nästan 300 miljarder dollar år 2028 (Källa: ”Telemedicine Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Component” Grand View Research, februari 2021).

Strukturella medvindar: Under 2019 saknade uppskattningsvis hälften av världens befolkning nödvändig hälsovård. När mer underbetjänade marknader får tillgång till bredband erbjuder telemedicin stora möjligheter att överbrygga klyftan (Källa: World Economic Forum).

Nya konsumentinställningar: Pandemin ökade antagandet av digitala hälsotjänster, med många vänder sig till telemedicin för första gången, vilket påskyndade temats räckvidd.

Handla EDOG ETF

Global X Telemedicine & Digital Health UCITS ETF Dist GBP (EDOG ETF) är en börshandlad fond (ETF) som handlas på London Stock Exchange.

London Stock Exchange är en marknad som få svenska banker och nätmäklare erbjuder access till, men DEGIRO gör det.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
London Stock ExchangeGBPEDOG

Största innehav

Vikt (%)KortnamnNamnLandSEDOL
4.87PODD USINSULET CORPUnited StatesB1XGNW4
4.57DOCS USDOXIMITY INC-CLASS AUnited StatesBMD22Y4
4.55HIMS USHIMS & HERS HEALTH INCUnited StatesBN46048
4.28RMD USRESMED INCUnited States2732903
4.23DGX USQUEST DIAGNOSTICS INCUnited States2702791
4.22TWST USTWIST BIOSCIENCE CORPUnited StatesBGKG6G7
4.06TNDM USTANDEM DIABETES CARE INCUnited StatesBF3W461
4.05QGEN USQIAGEN N.V.United StatesBMGBZP0
4.05LH USLABCORP HOLDINGS INCUnited StatesBSBK800
4.02OSCR USOSCAR HEALTH -AUnited StatesBKY83Q6

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The Dogecoin story: The emerging “intrinsic value”

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Like Bitcoin, Dogecoin uses a proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism but runs on its own blockchain, originally forked from Litecoin. It uses the Scrypt hashing algorithm, which is less resource-intensive than Bitcoin’s SHA-256, making mining more accessible to everyday users with consumer-grade hardware. Due to merged mining with Litecoin, Dogecoin benefits from shared infrastructure, with hashpower recently reaching all-time highs of 2.7 petahashes (quadrillion hashes) per second, making the network increasingly difficult to attack.

Like Bitcoin, Dogecoin uses a proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism but runs on its own blockchain, originally forked from Litecoin. It uses the Scrypt hashing algorithm, which is less resource-intensive than Bitcoin’s SHA-256, making mining more accessible to everyday users with consumer-grade hardware. Due to merged mining with Litecoin, Dogecoin benefits from shared infrastructure, with hashpower recently reaching all-time highs of 2.7 petahashes (quadrillion hashes) per second, making the network increasingly difficult to attack.

Dogecoin’s design is built for speed and utility, has no maximum supply, and confirms blocks every minute (10x faster than Bitcoin). Moreover, it maintains ultra-low transaction fees, which is ideal for tipping, microtransactions, and everyday use.

More than a meme

Although its supply is technically unlimited, Dogecoin’s issuance model is clear and predictable. Approximately 10,000 DOGE are mined every minute, adding up to around 5.25 billion new tokens each year. As the supply base expands, this fixed issuance creates a natural disinflationary trend that has cut nearly in half over the past decade while ensuring network security through consistent miner rewards.

Dogecoin’s technology fosters an aligned ecosystem between users and miners. With sustainable economic incentives, it acts as a kind of “retail Bitcoin”, built not just for hoarding but for real-world use, too.

While Dogecoin began as a lighthearted experiment, its evolution has proven it to be far more than a meme. Thanks to its speed, low fees, and strong community backing, Dogecoin has grown into a functional digital currency with a range of real-world use cases. From payments and merchant adoption to infrastructure development and charitable giving, Dogecoin continues to demonstrate its staying power as a practical and accessible tool in the broader crypto ecosystem.

Dogecoin as a payment tool

Dogecoin has transformed into a widely accepted digital currency, embraced by major brands like Tesla, AMC, Newegg, and the Dallas Mavericks. With fast transaction speeds and low fees, even amid surging transaction volumes, it has become a practical option for everyday payments. Crypto payment processors like BitPay have further expanded its reach, enabling thousands of merchants worldwide to accept DOGE. Most recently, The Open House Group, a prominent Tokyo Stock Exchange-listed real estate firm, added Dogecoin to its supported list, making it one of the few digital assets accepted for property transactions.

Enhancing Dogecoin’s payment infrastructure

Initiatives like Dogebox and GigaWallet are simplifying DOGE integration for businesses, while its scaling solution, Laika, is making meaningful progress in improving transaction speed and reducing costs.

Meanwhile, RadioDoge is working to expand access by enabling offline transactions in remote regions through low-cost radio and Starlink technology, advancing global crypto inclusion. A rumored integration with Elon Musk’s X platform could extend Dogecoin’s utility across digital tipping and commerce. These efforts collectively reinforce Dogecoin’s growing relevance in real-world payments and its potential as a frictionless, decentralized transaction layer.

Do Only Good Every Day

As we’ve seen, community drives memecoins, and Dogecoin’s community shines the brightest. This global network not only thrives on memes but also channels that energy into social good. From funding clean water in Kenya to sending Jamaica’s Bobsled Team to the Olympics and raising over $1 million for Ukraine relief, DOGE’s community transforms internet culture into real-world impact. Low fees and fast transactions make it a favorite for grassroots giving, showing a coin born as a joke can leave a lasting legacy. Dogecoin is more than a digital asset—it’s a movement powered by a community that believes in doing good every day.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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