Analytiker varnar emellertid för att marknaden kan hamna ett i brant fall efter att ha kört på ”så långt och snabbt” Traders sade Bitcoins senaste rally hade fått stöd av ett växande antal professionella investerare, såsom hedgefonder.
Bitcoin har stigit till den rekordhöga nivå kryptovalutan noterade för tre år sedan, men vissa analytiker varnade för att ytterligare vinster skulle låta priset öppna sig för en större korrigering. På onsdagen handlades Bitcoin så högt som 18 492 dollar efter en explosiv körning där den har rusat mer än 50 procent på 30 dagar, visar data från Refinitiv. Bitcoin nådde en topp i december 2017 på 19 458 dollar, innan den drabbades av en spektakulär krasch som lämnade marknaden vilande i flera år. Den här gången skulle bitcoin kunna noterat nya rekord, enligt Joel Kruger, en valutaanalytiker på LMAX Exchange, som sa att om det hände kan priserna vara på väg mot ett kraftigt fall. Handlare sa att volatiliteten förblev hög. ”Vi skulle varna för att köpa på nuvarande nivåer, eftersom marknaden har gått så långt och snabbt”, sade Kruger.
”Marknaden kanske vill nå en rekordnivå, men om det händer kommer det att lämna priset öppet för en större korrigering.” Priserna kollapsade i mars när Coronavirusinducerade försäljningar slet igenom finansmarknaderna. Men sedan dess har växelkursen ökat med 380 procent sedan årets botten.
Handlare sa att den senaste rallyt hade fått stöd av ett växande antal professionella investerare, såsom hedgefonder, som blev aktiva i handeln med kryptovalutan, lockad av potentiellt hög avkastning. Specialiserade hedgefonder som fokuserar på bitcoinhandel har överträffat sina konkurrenter på traditionella marknader avsevärt och har uppnått nästan 89 procent avkastning sedan årets början, enligt dataleverantören Eurekahedge.
Det huvudsakliga hedgefondindexet avkastade drygt 3 procent. PayPal:s beslut att anta kryptovalutor har också stärkt marknadens trovärdighet, enligt George McDonaugh, medgrundare och verkställande direktör på blockchain-investeringsbolaget KR1, medan stora, välkända investerare också har köpt in Bitcoin.
Jan Stromme, verkställande partner vid kryptospecialiseringsföretaget Alphaplate, sa att intresset från vanliga investerare var ”som högst och inte visar några tecken på avtagande”. ”Traditionella investerare tänker alltmer att krypto är en mognande marknad och ser det som en möjlighet att diversifiera och handla det utöver traditionella tillgångar,” sade Stromme. Elie Le Rest, partner vid Paris-baserad specialistförvaltare ExoAlpha, sade att rallyt den här gången verkade vara mer hållbart än uppgången 2017, då detaljinvesterare var majoritetsdeltagare på marknaden. ”Institutionella investerare positionerar sig nu i Bitcoin”, sade Le Rest.
Please find below Hashdex monthly crypto market update and performance attribution for Hashdex Crypto-Index ETPs for October 2024.
With October often showing strong seasonality for crypto assets, this month’s results reflect a promising trend for Bitcoin, although gains were more limited across Altcoins. As outlined in our latest CIO note, “Beyond Trump and Harris: Five Congressional Races That May Impact Crypto’s Future”, several upcoming US congressional races could shape the regulatory landscape for crypto, with potential implications for institutional adoption and future price action. Bipartisan support for the asset class is expected to grow, depending on the results of key races.
We will share some updates during the week, if you need any inputs on US elections, feel free to reach out to us.
Hashdex Crypto Index ETPs: performances (USD) as of end of October 24
• Beta Index ETP– Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH or HDX1) (largest Crypto Index ETP in Europe): October +7.1%, YTD +45%, 12M +89%.
• Smart-Beta Index ETP – Crypto Momentum Index ETP(HAMO or HDXM): October -0.5%, YTD +1.2%, 12M +71%.
Market Update – October 24
October, commonly known as ”Uptober” for its seasonally strong performance for Bitcoin, continued this trend in 2024. The month began with a volatile period, as the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) initially gave back gains from September. All NCI constituents declined in the first ten days, with the exception of Uniswap, which announced plans for its own layer-two network on Ethereum.
Mid-month, the sentiment shifted, with a sharp rally that drove Bitcoin close to its all-time high by the 29th. The NCI ultimately closed the month up 7.1%, significantly outpacing traditional markets as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 declined slightly. This rally coincided with a sharp increase in former president Donald Trump’s odds in election betting markets, generating additional optimism around Bitcoin.
While Bitcoin posted a robust 10.6% gain, Altcoins generally underperformed. The notable positive exception among altcoins was Solana, which rose 9.0%. In contrast, Ripple declined 18.6% due to ongoing SEC litigation, and Polygon’s MATIC dropped over 20% as it migrated to a new token model (POL).
Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) relative to other asset class in October 24
Source: Hashdex, as of 30/10/24.
In comparison with traditional assets, the NCI’s 7.1% gain far outpaced the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, both of which posted slight declines. This performance underscores the potential for crypto assets to provide upside during periods of broader market uncertainty. The majority of this outperformance was driven by Bitcoin’s strength, underscoring its role as a cornerstone of the crypto asset class and its growing appeal as a macroeconomic hedge.
Performance attribution:
Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI)
The NCI recorded positive returns for most of its primary constituents, with Bitcoin (+10.6%) leading the gains. Solana (SOL) also contributed positively, rising 9.0%. However, Ripple (XRP) and Polygon’s MATIC weighed on the index, with losses of 18.6% and over 20%, respectively. Ripple’s decline was largely attributed to ongoing legal issues with the SEC, while MATIC’s transition to the POL token created additional downward pressure.
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/10/24.
Crypto Momentum Factor Index
The Crypto Momentum Factor Index showed a slight monthly decline of 0.5% in October, reflecting the underperformance of altcoins in general. Although Tron (TRX) remained relatively stable, other altcoins in the index faced headwinds, leading to a small monthly loss for the index.
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/10/24.
Correlation (3m) to traditional asset classes
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/10/24. NCI for Nasdaq Crypto Index.
Goldman Sachs Global Green Bond UCITSETF EUR (Dist) (GSGR ETF) med ISIN IE000SYQFJV2strävar efter att spåra Solactive Global Green Bond Select-index. Solactive Global Green Bond Select-index följer gröna obligationer. Alla löptider ingår. Betyg: Investment Grade.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,22 % p.a. Goldman Sachs Global Green Bond UCITSETF EUR (Dist) är den enda ETF som följer Solactive Global Green Bond Select-indexet. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (halvårsvis).
Denna ETF lanserades den 13 februari 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Mål
Goldman Sachs Global Green Bond UCITSETF är en passivt förvaltad, hållbar global obligationsfond som uteslutande investerar i gröna obligationer enligt bedömningen av Goldman Sachs Asset Managements investeringsteam för gröna obligationer.
Crypto markets faced a volatile week as key macroeconomic events approached, with the upcoming US presidential election and anticipated Fed rate decision fueling uncertainty in risk assets. Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.7%, ether (ETH) declined 1%, Solana (SOL) fell 8.2%, and the Nasdaq Crypto IndexTM (NCITM) was down 0.5%.
Microsoft to consider bitcoin investment starting December
According to a new SEC filing, Microsoft is considering the possibility of investing in Bitcoin as a hedge strategy against inflation despite opposition from its Board of Directors. This move, by one of the world’s largest companies, would mark a significant step in institutional adoption for Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy discloses plans to buy $42B of BTC
The firm announced bold plans to raise $42 billion over the next three years to acquire more bitcoin. This new wave of capital will be split equally, with $21 billion from equity issuance and $21 billion from debt offerings, in a project called the ”21/21” plan. This move, led by founder Michael Saylor, underscores bitcoin’s potential as a valuable hedge against inflation and highlights its appeal as a strategic investment option.
UBS launches its first tokenized fund on Ethereum
UBS Asset Management has launched its first tokenized fund, the USD Money Market Investment Fund Token (uMINT), a money market fund built on the Ethereum blockchain, available through authorized partners. The launch supports the growing demand for tokenized financial assets and leverages distributed technology to enhance fund issuance and distribution, as well as UBS’s broader strategy to expand its tokenization services.