• Bitcoin has shown above-average returns following major geopolitical risk events in the past.
• Our findings support previous analyses that support the thesis that cryptoassets may act as a hedge against geopolitical risks.
• This is generally consistent with the fact that Bitcoin can act as a safe-haven asset on account of its counterparty risk-free and censorship-resistant nature as well as its scarce supply characteristics.
“Buy when there is blood in the streets”
The quote ”buy when there is blood in the streets” is commonly attributed to Baron Rothschild, an 18th century British nobleman and member of the Rothschild banking family.
The full phrase is often rendered as ”The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own”, and it emphasises the idea of investing during times of market panic or extreme distress, when asset prices are low and fear is high.
This contrarian investment philosophy suggests that significant gains can be made by buying assets when others are too scared to buy.
The major question for investors is how these developments might affect the performance of Bitcoin and other cryptoassets going forward?
What’s the impact of geopolitical risk events on Bitcoin?
Most geopolitical risk events tend to be rather short-term in nature. Nonetheless, they tend to have a significant (negative) impact on most traditional financial asset prices due to an increase in uncertainty.
Although geopolitical risks seem to be hard to define at first there, is a wide array of research that has tried to quantify episodes of heightened geopolitical risks. One of these approaches was put forth by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) who compiled a
Geopolitical Risk Index based on relevant mentions in major newspapers. The rationale is that geopolitical risks are high when there is a high frequency of mentions in newspapers on geopolitical topics such as war threats or terror acts.
In fact, the Geopolitical Risk Index tends to spike during major geopolitical events such the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.
The following analysis looks at the performance track record of Bitcoin around these major geopolitical risk events.
Bitcoin – a hedge against geopolitical risks?
We have started our analysis by only looking at statistically significant geopolitical risk events, i.e. only those that exceeded the threshold of 2 standard deviations across the full sample of observations (July 2010 – today). In a second step, we have selected the top 20 geopolitical risk events based on the overall level of the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR Index) itself.
The following table shows these top 20 geopolitical risk events and the subsequent performance index of Bitcoin up to 50 days after the event:
On average, Bitcoin has appreciated significantly following these major geopolitical risk events in the past.
Even stripping out the average performance across a random window of 100 days, reveals that the “excess performance” of Bitcoin was still positive around these major geopolitical events.
In other words, Bitcoin has even shown above-average returns following these major geopolitical risk events in the past.
This implies that Bitcoin appears to thrive in an environment of heightened geopolitical risk. This finding is also echoed in previous research by Almeida et al. (2024) who have found that cryptoassets can act as a hedge against geopolitical risks.
We think this is generally consistent with the fact that Bitcoin can act as a safe-haven asset on account of its counterparty risk-free and censorship-resistant nature as well as its scarce supply characteristics.
In fact, due to the latest Halving in the supply growth of Bitcoin, Bitcoin’s supply has become double as scarce as gold for the first time in history. This investment hypothesis is also supported by the fact that periods of heightened geopolitical risks have been associated with high inflation regimes in the past.
One of the major reasons is the fact that major geopolitical tensions tend to be associated with supply-chain disruptions, commodity price spikes as well as looser monetary and fiscal policy.
Scarce assets like Bitcoin could particularly profit from such an environment.
Bottom Line
• Bitcoin has shown above-average returns following major geopolitical risk events in the past.
• Our findings support previous analyses that support the thesis that cryptoassets may act as a hedge against geopolitical risks.
• This is generally consistent with the fact that Bitcoin can act as a safe-haven asset on account of its counterparty risk-free and censorship-resistant nature as well as its scarce supply characteristics.
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En ny börshandlad fond från Global X handlas sedan i torsdags på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt. Global X European Infrastructure Development UCITS ETF (B41J) följer utvecklingen av Mirae Asset European Infrastructure Development Index. Indexet inkluderar företag noterade i Europa som är involverade i byggande och utveckling av stora ekonomiska, sociala och digitala infrastrukturprojekt i Europa.
Detta inkluderar företag som är involverade i planering och konstruktion av infrastrukturprojekt, inklusive datacenter, samt produktion och försäljning av råvaror, kompositmaterial och produkter för infrastruktur. Det omfattar även företag som är involverade i försäljning och uthyrning av tung anläggningsutrustning och relaterade produkter, drift och underhåll av transportnät och tillverkning och försäljning av energiinfrastrukturprodukter.
Namn
ISIN
Avgift
Utdelnings-policy
Referensindex
Global European Infrastructure Development UCITSETF EUR Acc
IE000PS0J481
0,47 %
Ackumulerande
Mirae Asset European Infrastructure Development Index
Produktutbudet i Deutsche Börses XTF-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 215 ETFer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 15 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer i Europa.
iShares Developed Markets Property Yield UCITSETF (IQQ6 ETF) med ISIN IE00B1FZS350, strävar efter att spåra FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Dividend+-index. FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Dividend+-index spårar börsnoterade fastighetsbolag och Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) från utvecklade länder över hela världen exklusive Grekland, som har en prognostiserad ettårig utdelningsavkastning på två procent eller mer.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,59 % p.a. iShares Developed Markets Property Yield UCITSETF är den billigaste och största ETF som följer FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Dividend+ index. Denna replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).
iShares Developed Markets Property Yield UCITSETFär en mycket stor ETF med tillgångar på 1 100 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 20 oktober 2006 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Varför IQQ6?
Exponering mot utvecklade marknader fastighetsbolag med en ettårig prognostiserad direktavkastning på 2 %
Direktinvestering i börsnoterade fastighetsbolag och REITS
Fonden strävar efter att spåra resultatet för ett index som består av börsnoterade fastighetsbolag och Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) från utvecklade länder, exklusive Grekland, som också uppfyller utdelningskriterierna.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
Denna börshandlade fonds TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18 % p.a. Franklin Sustainable Euro Green Corporate 1-5 Year UCITSETF (Acc) är den enda ETF som följer Franklin Sustainable Euro Green Corporate 1-5 Year index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i denna ETF ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
Denna ETF lanserades den 31 oktober 2023 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Fonden strävar efter att bidra till miljömål genom att tillhandahålla exponering mot främst den europeiska marknaden för gröna företagsobligationer med en kort till medellånga löptid på mindre än 5 år, samtidigt som den maximerar totalavkastningen. Fonden klassificeras som artikel 9 enligt EU:s förordning om hållbar finansiering (”SFDR”). Fonden investerar huvudsakligen i obligationer som är märkta gröna och denominerade i europeiska valutor.
Handla GCOR ETF
Franklin Sustainable Euro Green Corporate 1-5 Year UCITSETF (Acc) (GCOR ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.