The Bank of England has kept rates on hold at its meeting today, contrary to market expectations. Sterling staged a modest rebound, albeit from multi-decade low levels against the US Dollar, as the central bank held fire on further stimulus activity. The Bank of England noted that ‘most members of the Committee expect monetary policy to be loosened in August’, preferring to wait until its August Inflation Outlook report to gauge the impact of the EU Referendum. Bank of England…waiting for stagflation
The EU referendum has made the prospect of stagflation – the combination of weak growth and inflation – an increasingly likely situation for the UK economy. Although inflation currently hovers at 0.3%, the weaker Sterling (GBP) is likely to lead, at least in the short–term, to a rise in inflation via import prices.
A historical study[1] shows that the exchange rate pass-through for the UK could see over 10% impact on the CPI from currency movements. The 10% drop in the GBP could therefore result in a 1% move higher in CPI in the UK in the following 6-12 months after the exchange rate movement. The Bank of England calculates in its May 2016 inflation report that the impact from a 10% decline (since end-2015) in GBP could push inflation higher by 1.8-2.5% by end-2018. The GBP has declined 15% since end-2015, meaning the inflationary impact is likely to be greater than previous forecasts. The central bank concludes that ‘Ultimately, monetary policy would be set in order to meet the inflation target, while also ensuring that inflation expectations remained anchored.’
We expect that the impact of the EU referendum on GBP, and in turn domestic UK inflation, could be more persistent (in contrast to the Bank of England), especially in the event that inflationary expectations become unanchored. At the moment, there has been no real evidence of rising inflationary expectations in recent weeks. 5yr-5yr forward rates for the UK remain depressed, a seemingly direct result of the EU referendum. However, with fuel and food prices set to rise in coming weeks, a rebound could occur in expectations quite rapidly.
We anticipate that GBP is likely to be under further pressure in coming months, as the uncertainty surrounding the EU Referendum begins to show up in softer economic data and rising inflationary pressure from import prices.
[1] Campa and Goldberg, Distribution margins, imported inputs, and the sensitivity of the cpi to exchange rates, NBER, 2006.
Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities
Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.
Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITSETF DR EUR (D) (WEL8 ETF) med ISIN IE000ENYES77, försöker följa S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials-index. S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials-index spårar stora och medelstora företag från finanssektorn. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning).
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18 % p.a. Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITSETF DR EUR (D) är den billigaste ETF som följer S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).
Amundi S&P Global Financials ESG UCITSETF DR EUR (D) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 2 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETFen lanserades den 20 september 2022 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Investeringsmål
AMUNDI S&P GLOBAL FINANCIALS ESG UCITSETF DR – EUR (D) försöker replikera, så nära som möjligt, resultatet av S&P Developed Ex-Korea LargeMidCap Sustainability Enhanced Financials Index (Netto Total return index). Denna ETF har exponering mot stora och medelstora företag i utvecklade länder. Den innehåller uteslutningskriterier för tobak, kontroversiella vapen, civila och militära handeldvapen, termiskt kol, olja och gas (inkl. Arctic Oil & Gas), oljesand, skiffergas. Den är också utformad för att välja ut och omvikta företag för att tillsammans förbättra hållbarhet och ESG-profiler, uppfylla miljömål och minska koldioxidavtrycket.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
President Trump announced a highly aggressive tariff package—one with broad macroeconomic implications—and global markets reacted sharply. In this environment of heightened volatility, we urge investors to maintain perspective, just as they should when prices are volatile to the upside (e.g., last year’s post-election rally).
Notably, since the election, bitcoin and the Nasdaq Crypto Index have outperformed gold, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100. Even in the wake of the tariffs, only gold has outpaced bitcoin and the NCI—highlighting the relative strength of digital assets amid global market declines.
Market Highlights
Stablecoin legislation advances in US
The House Financial Services Committee voted to advance a monumental bill to regulate stablecoins, the STABLE Act, following the Senate Banking Committee approval of similar legislation earlier this year.
President Trump has said he wants stablecoin legislation approved by Congress before its August recess, reinforcing the new administration’s focus on establishing clear crypto regulation.
Tokenized fund sets dividend benchmark
BlackRock’s BUIDL paid an estimated $4.17 million in monthly dividends during March.
This highlights the potential of crypto to create attractive investment instruments, such as tokenized funds, which stood out this month paying massive dividends and setting a new benchmark for the class.
SEC chair orders review of crypto guidance
Acting SEC Chair Mark T. Uyeda ordered a review of past staff guidance on crypto, including risk warnings and interpretations of the Howey test.
This move, like others before, signals a broader shift toward a more open regulatory approach, potentially strengthening the presence of bitcoin and other digital assets in the US in the near future.
Market Metrics
The NCITM constituents had another negative week, with only XRP (-7.0%) and BTC (-3.8%) avoiding double-digit losses. The overall NCITM decline of -5.2% was cushioned by BTC’s relative resilience, as it performed better as a store-of-value asset. However, the drop still reflects a broader risk-off sentiment across all markets, driven by Trump’s tariff policies and growing macroeconomic uncertainties that are prompting investors to reassess their positions.
This week, the NCITM fell -5.3%, narrowing the gap with traditional indices such as the Nasdaq 100 (-9.8%) and S&P 500 (-9.1%) which experienced sharper losses following Trump’s tariff announcements. BTC (-3.8%) performed similarly to gold (-3.3%), though gold remains the top-performing asset class year-to-date. The week reinforced the risk-off sentiment, with investors broadly retreating from risk assets. Still, it also highlighted crypto’s growing relevance, as the most volatile asset class managed to outperform traditional markets in a stressed environment.
JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Active Strategy investerar i företag från tillväxtmarknader. ETF strävar efter att generera en högre avkastning än MSCI Emerging MarketsSRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom-index. Aktierna som ingår filtreras enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Dessutom beaktas EUs direktiv om klimatskydd.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,30 % p.a. Utdelningarna i ETF:n ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
JPMorgan Global Emerging Markets Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Active UCITSETF USD (acc) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 2 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 5 mars 2025 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Investeringsmål
Delfondens mål är att uppnå en långsiktig avkastning som överstiger MSCI Emerging MarketsSRI EU PAB Overlay ESG Custom Index* (”riktmärket”) genom att aktivt investera i huvudsak i en portfölj av tillväxtmarknadsföretag, samtidigt som målen i Parisavtalet är i linje.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.