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Bank of England…waiting for stagflation

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8 år sedan

den

21 juli, 2016

The Bank of England has kept rates on hold at its meeting today, contrary to market expectations. Sterling staged a modest rebound, albeit from multi-decade low levels against the US Dollar, as the central bank held fire on further stimulus activity. The Bank of England noted that ‘most members of the Committee expect monetary policy to be loosened in August’, preferring to wait until its August Inflation Outlook report to gauge the impact of the EU Referendum. Bank of England…waiting for stagflation

The EU referendum has made the prospect of stagflation – the combination of weak growth and inflation – an increasingly likely situation for the UK economy. Although inflation currently hovers at 0.3%, the weaker Sterling (GBP) is likely to lead, at least in the short–term, to a rise in inflation via import prices.

A historical study[1] shows that the exchange rate pass-through for the UK could see over 10% impact on the CPI from currency movements. The 10% drop in the GBP could therefore result in a 1% move higher in CPI in the UK in the following 6-12 months after the exchange rate movement. The Bank of England calculates in its May 2016 inflation report that the impact from a 10% decline (since end-2015) in GBP could push inflation higher by 1.8-2.5% by end-2018. The GBP has declined 15% since end-2015, meaning the inflationary impact is likely to be greater than previous forecasts. The central bank concludes that ‘Ultimately, monetary policy would be set in order to meet the inflation target, while also ensuring that inflation expectations remained anchored.’

We expect that the impact of the EU referendum on GBP, and in turn domestic UK inflation, could be more persistent (in contrast to the Bank of England), especially in the event that inflationary expectations become unanchored. At the moment, there has been no real evidence of rising inflationary expectations in recent weeks. 5yr-5yr forward rates for the UK remain depressed, a seemingly direct result of the EU referendum. However, with fuel and food prices set to rise in coming weeks, a rebound could occur in expectations quite rapidly.

We anticipate that GBP is likely to be under further pressure in coming months, as the uncertainty surrounding the EU Referendum begins to show up in softer economic data and rising inflationary pressure from import prices.

[1] Campa and Goldberg, Distribution margins, imported inputs, and the sensitivity of the cpi to exchange rates, NBER, 2006.

Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities

Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.

Liknande ämnen:Bank of England ETF Securities Martin Arnold stagflation

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EUPC ETF investerar i amerikanska aktier med låg justerade prisdynamik

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1 timme sedan

den

24 december, 2024

Redaktionen

Ossiam Shiller Barclays CAPE® US Sector Value TR UCITS ETF 1C (USD) (EUPC ETF) med ISIN LU1079841513, försöker följa Shiller Barclays CAPE® US Sector Value-index. Shiller Barclays CAPE® US Sector Value Strategy väljer från S&P 500 de fem sektorer med lägst relativ CAPE (cykliskt justerad prisinkomst). Den relativa CAPE-koefficienten utvärderar en sektors relativa kostnadsprestanda baserat på dess nuvarande och långsiktiga historiska priser och avkastning. Sedan beräknar metoden sektorn med lägst prisdynamik över en period av 12 månader, dvs. e. den sektor som presterade sämst under rapportperioden. Var och en av de återstående fyra sektorerna får samma viktning (25 %) och komponenterna i investeringsuniversumet anpassas varje månad.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,65 % p.a. Ossiam Shiller Barclays CAPE® US Sector Value TR UCITS ETF 1C (USD) är den billigaste och största ETF som följer Shiller Barclays CAPE® US Sector Value-index. ETFen replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet syntetiskt med en swap. Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Ossiam Shiller Barclays CAPE® US Sector Value TR UCITS ETF 1C (USD) är en mycket stor ETF med tillgångar på 2 537 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 22 juni 2015 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.

Handla EUPC ETF

Ossiam Shiller Barclays CAPE® US Sector Value TR UCITS ETF 1C (USD) (EUPC ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
XETRA	EUR	EUPC
London Stock Exchange	GBX	CAPU
Bolsa Mexicana de Valores	USD	UCAPN
London Stock Exchange	USD	UCAP
SIX Swiss Exchange	USD	UCAP

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Valour Kaspa SEK spårar priset på kryptovalutan KAS

Publicerad

2 timmar sedan

den

24 december, 2024

Redaktionen

Valour Kaspa (KAS) SEK (Valour Kaspa SEK) med ISIN CH1108679379, är en börshandlad produkt (ETP) som spårar KAS, den infödda symbolen för Kaspa blockchain. Genom att använda sitt GhostDAG-protokoll bearbetar Kaspa block parallellt, vilket möjliggör snabb transaktionsavslutning och hög skalbarhet. KAS-tokenen används för transaktionsavgifter och nätverkssäkerhet genom mining. Med sin effektiva och decentraliserade design stöder Kaspa skalbara blockkedjeapplikationer, vilket ger både utvecklare och användare kraft.

Beskrivning

Valour’s Certificate-produktlinje erbjuder börshandlade produkter som uppfyller kraven, var och en helt säkrad av sina respektive digitala tillgångar. För att säkerställa säker kylförvaring samarbetar Valour med nivå 1-licensierade förvaringsinstitut som Copper. Handlade på reglerade börser och MTFer ger dessa certifikat transparent prissättning och likviditet, vilket stärker investerarnas förtroende för säkra digitala tillgångsinvesteringar. Valours grundprospekt är godkända av Finansinspektionen och uppfyller EUs krav på fullständighet, tydlighet och konsekvens.

Produktinformation

Namn	Valour Kaspa SEK
Emittent	Valour Inc
Basvaluta	SEK
Föraltningskostnad	1,9%
ISIN	CH1108679379
Valoren	110867937
WKN	A4A55Z
Förfallodag	Open-ended

Handla Valour Kaspa

Valour Kaspa (KASPA) (Valour Kaspa SEK) är en europeisk börshandlad produkt som handlas på bland annat Spotlight Stock Market.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest, Levler och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Börs	Valuta	Kortnamn
Spotlight Stock Market	SEK	VALOUR KASPA SEK

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Crypto markets drop, Powell hints at fewer cuts, and Ethereum ETFs record inflows

Publicerad

23 timmar sedan

den

23 december, 2024

Redaktionen

The third week of December was rough for crypto prices. The Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) fell 9.7%, led by lackluster performance from Bitcoin (-3.2%) Ethereum (-2.3%) and Solana (-6.4%). This negative performance comes after weeks of strong price action in the crypto market, fueled by a series of positive developments. On Wednesday, the Fed lowered rates once again but Chair Powell suggested these cuts may slow.

Bitcoin ETFs experience strong selling spree after positive streak of days

US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a record $680 million in net outflows on Thursday, ending a 15-day streak of positive flows totaling $6.7 billion. This could indicate potential profit-taking by investors, given Bitcoin’s impressive 119% appreciation since the start of the year. If we are indeed at the beginning of a bull market, corrections during this cycle are expected to be nominally larger, as BTC, currently valued at around $100,000, has the potential for further appreciation throughout this cycle.

Ether ETFs record inflows in December

ETH ETFs attracted $1.66 billion in new investments this December, accounting for 74% of their $2.24 billion total inflows since inception and reflecting growing institutional interest beyond Bitcoin. The strong inflow-to-market cap ratio signals rising confidence in Ethereum, potentially paving the way for a broader range of regulated crypto products to gain prominence.

From Hashdex: With the year’s end approaching, we would like to invite our readers to explore our Outlook 2025, as it offers key insights to help investors confidently navigate the crypto market in this upcoming year.