ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Bad news signals good news – leaving room for further stimulus

Highlights

•  Commodities: Stronger US inflation data takes the shine off gold.
•  Equities: Tightening margins dominate US Q3 earnings season.
•  Currencies: Stronger core inflation data boosts the greenback versus major peers.
•  As part of our “Energy Wars” webinar series we welcome Richard Mallinson, a leading geopolitical analyst at Energy Aspects to join us, to discuss where next for the oil price.

Asian stocks have opened the week on a mixed footing after a raft of economic data released from Beijing this morning. China managed to beat their third quarter GDP estimate by a fraction 0.1% although they lagged behind industrial production estimates by -0.3% while retail sales remained a bright spot. European futures are indicating a lower open as they digest the pivotal data from China. This week central banks in Europe and Canada will decide on their interest rate policy with hopes pinned on further stimulus by Europe.

Commodities

Stronger US inflation data takes the shine off gold. Softer economic data from US and China helped gold rise above its 200d moving average $1176. However Thursday’s release of higher-than-expected US core inflation of 1.9%, came in just shy of Fed’s inflation target, pushed gold lower as investors revisited the prospect of a 2015 rate hike. Overblown fears caused by the VW emissions scandal are showing signs of abating as we see platinum attain its highest level in 7 weeks while palladium’s price reaction remain muted despite a 9.8% rise in new car registrations in Europe, marking the 25th consecutive month of growth. Oil prices failed to show a clear price trend declining in part due to profit taking from last week’s highs and a 7.6mn barrel increase in US crude oil reported by the US department of energy added to the supply glut.

Equities

Tightening margins dominate US Q3 earnings season. China’s benchmark Shanghai composite index posted its best week in four months rising 6.54% on renewed optimism of state reforms after the raft of weak economic data. Over in Europe stimulus bets are on the rise after a sharp deterioration in the German ZEW survey and Europe’s inflation data dipping into negative territory. The US earnings season have been disappointing, with 27% of companies that have reported showing negative QoQ earnings particularly in the energy, financials and materials sectors. Quarterly profit margins have fallen below 10% for the first time since 2012 as a combination of rising corporate revenues, the strength of the US dollar and demand for wage increases. US jobless claims are now at their lowest point since 1973 and it is likely that tightening margins will be a theme for this upcoming earnings season.

Currencies

Stronger core inflation data boosts the greenback versus major peers. In contrast to the negative inflation scenario in Europe, consumer prices excluding food and fuel climbed the most in 3 months aiding the US dollar’s rise to a seven week high versus the euro. The lowest UK unemployment reading 5.4% in 7 years helped the sterling gain support after the negative monthly CPI data sparked an initial sell off. The European central bank will announce its policy decision this week and investors are relying on the expansion of the quantitative easing program after the recent weakness in economic data. The Australian central bank this week highlighted concerns of a slowdown in the overheated housing market sending the Aussie dollar sharply lower. The loonie remained resilient ahead of the Bank of Canada rate decision on Thursday. The minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting showed no signs of further quantitative easing keeping the Yen strong over the week.

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