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Are commodities at a turning point?

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Commodity ETP Weekly - Are commodities at a turning point? Net inflows into oil ETPs on strong Chinese imports.

Commodity ETP Weekly – Are commodities at a turning point?

•  Gold at a four-month high.
•  Net inflows into oil ETPs on strong Chinese imports.
•  Shift in copper sentiment.
•  As part of our ”Energy Wars” webinar series we welcome Richard Mallinson, a leading geopolitical analyst at Energy Aspects to join us, to discuss where next for the oil price.

Pressure on commodities seems to be easing on the back of technical support and better fundamental prospects. Although China imports fell by 17.7% over the past year to September, demand for some commodities remains resilient. Chinese oil imports so far this year rose 9% compared to the same period last year, while copper imports for September surged 18% compared to September 2014, suggesting that fears over China demand slowdown have been overblown. Despite a rising US Dollar (USD) robust Chinese economic activity should lend support to commodity prices this week. Sentiment towards the asset class is turning with investors increasing exposure to long commodity ETPs.

Gold at a four-month high. Gold rose 3.9% last week, marking the second consecutive week of positive returns and closing at a 4-month high at US$1,184.25/oz. on Thursday. Weaker economic indicators from US and Eurozone early in the week saw gold rally alongside a declining US Dollar. In addition, gold reached another technical support last Wednesday, crossing its 200 day moving average upward, often an indication that price increase is likely to continue in the near term. Inflows into long gold ETPs hit an eight-week high of US$42mn and marking five consecutive weeks of inflows. Gold has retraced some of the gains as US inflation surprised to the upside, in turn boosting the USD. Although rate hike expectations have been brought forward, market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to begin the tightening cycle early next year, lending additional support to the commodities complex.

Net inflows into oil ETPs on strong Chinese imports. Oil ETPs recorded net inflows of US$29mn mainly into ETF WTI Crude Oil (CRUD) and ETFS Daily Leveraged WTI Crude Oil (LOIL) on strong demand from China. September oil imports were slightly higher than September last year. However China total oil imports so far this year rose 8.8% above its level at the same period last year, suggesting that Chinese demand for the commodity has been strong. Meanwhile larger-than-expected increase in US oil inventories last week weighed on the price of oil. WTI fell 6.2%, while Brent plunged 8.2% over the past week, partially offsetting the previous week’s gains. While the oil market remains amply supplied, strong demand from China combined with falling production in the US should eventually trim inventories and support oil prices in the medium term.

Shift in copper sentiment. Investors appear to be becoming more bullish on copper. ETFS Copper (COPA) recorded net inflows of US$9.1mn (a 10-week high) while ETFS Daily Short Copper (SCOP) saw outflows of US$31.1mn, marking the most aggressive cut in short ETP positions since June 2014. The International Copper Study Group’s (ICSG’s) data revisions have helped fuelled positive sentiment for copper. The metal has risen 2.5% since the release of ICSG updated figures on 6th of October and 7.3% since its six-year low hit in August. In addition, China copper imports in September 2015 grew 18% year-on-year, underpinning market expectations for tighter market conditions in 2015 and 2016.

Key events to watch this week. While China industrial production for October came below expectations this morning, better-than-expected GDP for Q3 and retail sales should help ease concern over a potential hard landing and lend support to commodity prices this week. Markit manufacturing PMI for October in Europe and the US should provide further colour on the current global demand for metals.

Video Presentation

Edith Southammakosane, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

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iShares och Franklin Templeton listar nya ETFer på Xetra

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iShares S&P 500 3% Capped UCITS ETF investerar i de 500 största amerikanska företagen från de ledande branscherna i den amerikanska ekonomin, där inget enskilt företag står för mer än 3 procent av indexviktningen.

iShares S&P 500 3% Capped UCITS ETF investerar i de 500 största amerikanska företagen från de ledande branscherna i den amerikanska ekonomin, där inget enskilt företag står för mer än 3 procent av indexviktningen.

Franklin S&P 500 Screened UCITS ETF investerar i de nuvarande 408 största amerikanska företagen i S&P 500-indexet som anses vara miljömedvetna och socialt ansvarsfulla. Viktningen av företag justeras baserat på deras S&P Global ESG-poäng för att uppnå ett bättre totalt ESG-poäng än huvudindexet.

Franklin S&P World Screened UCITS ETF investerar i stora och medelstora företag från 24 utvecklade länder världen över som anses vara miljömedvetna och socialt ansvarsfulla. Viktningen av företag justeras baserat på deras S&P Global ESG-poäng för att uppnå ett bättre totalt ESG-poäng än S&P World Index.

NamnISIN
Kortnamn
AvgiftUtdelnings-
policy
iShares S&P 500 3% Capped UCITS ETF USD (Acc)IE000YIXESS9
SP3C (EUR)
0,20%Ackumulerande
Franklin S&P 500 Screened UCITS ETF (Acc)IE0006FAD976
FSPU (EUR)
0,09%Ackumulerande
Franklin S&P World Screened UCITS ETF (Acc)IE0006WOV4I9
FSPW (EUR)
0,14%Ackumulerande

Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF- och ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 404 ETFer, 198 ETCer och 256 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på mer än 21 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.

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BE28 ETF företagsobligationer med förfall 2028 och inget annat

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Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Dis (BE28 ETF) med ISIN IE000LKGEZQ6, försöker följa Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2028) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2028 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Dis (BE28 ETF) med ISIN IE000LKGEZQ6, försöker följa Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened-index. Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller under det angivna året (här: 2028) i indexet. Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade. Löptid: december 2028 (Denna ETF kommer att stängas efteråt).

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,10 % p.a.. Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Dis är den billigaste ETF som följer Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened index. ETFen replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kuponger) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (kvartalsvis).

Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Dis är en mycket liten ETF med 1 miljon euro tillgångar under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 18 juni 2024 och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Produktbeskrivning

Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF Dist syftar till att tillhandahålla den totala avkastningen för Bloomberg 2028 Maturity EUR Corporate Bond Screened Index (”Referensindexet”), minus påverkan av avgifter. Fonden har en fast löptid och kommer att upphöra på Förfallodagen. Fonden delar ut intäkter på kvartalsbasis.

Referensindexet är utformat för att återspegla resultatet för EUR-denominerade, investeringsklassade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga skuldebrev emitterade av företagsemittenter. För att vara kvalificerade för inkludering måste företagsvärdepapper ha minst 300 miljoner euro i nominellt utestående belopp och en effektiv löptid på eller mellan 1 januari 2028 och 31 december 2028.

Värdepapper är uteslutna om emittenter: 1) är inblandade i kontroversiella vapen, handeldvapen, militära kontrakt, oljesand, termiskt kol eller tobak; 2) inte har en kontroversnivå enligt definitionen av Sustainalytics eller har en Sustainalytics-kontroversnivå högre än 4; 3) anses inte följa principerna i FN:s Global Compact; eller 4) kommer från tillväxtmarknader.

Portföljförvaltarna strävar efter att uppnå fondens mål genom att tillämpa en urvalsstrategi, som inkluderar användning av kvantitativ analys, för att välja en andel av värdepapperen från referensindexet som representerar hela indexets egenskaper, med hjälp av faktorer som index- vägd genomsnittlig varaktighet, industrisektorer, landvikter och kreditkvalitet. När en företagsobligation som innehas av fonden når förfallodag kommer de kontanter som fonden tar emot att användas för att investera i kortfristiga EUR-denominerade skulder utgivna av det amerikanska finansdepartementet.

ETFen förvaltas passivt.

En investering i denna fond är ett förvärv av andelar i en passivt förvaltad indexföljande fond snarare än i de underliggande tillgångarna som ägs av fonden.

Förfallodag: den andra onsdagen i december 2028 eller sådant annat datum som bestäms av styrelseledamöterna och meddelas aktieägarna.

Handla BE28 ETF

Invesco BulletShares 2028 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Dis (BE28 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Borsa Italiana.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Borsa ItalianaEURBE28
XETRAEURBE28

Största innehav

NamnCUSIPISINKupongräntaVikt %
Volkswagen Leasing GmbH 3.875% 11/10/28D9T70CNQ3XS27457251553.8752.20%
Swedbank AB 4.25% 11/07/28W94240FJ7XS25724966234.2501.63%
ABN AMRO Bank NV 4.375% 20/10/28N0R37XLP3XS26136587104.3751.62%
Carlsberg Breweries AS 4% 05/10/28K3662HDY6XS26960464604.0001.60%
RCI Banque SA 4.875% 14/06/28F7S48DSE5FR001400IEQ04.8751.59%
Booking Holdings Inc 3.625% 12/11/28XS26210072313.6251.59%
Banco Santander SA 3.875% 16/01/28E2R99DB46XS25759526973.8751.58%
Nordea Bank Abp 4.125% 05/05/28X5S8VP8C3XS26189065854.1251.58%
E.ON SE 3.5% 12/01/28D2T8J8CT1XS25748732663.5001.57%
General Motors Financial Co Inc 3.9% 12/01/28U37047BA1XS27472706303.9001.57%

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Trump’s trade war puts Bitcoin in the spotlight

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Since U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on April 2, termed "Liberation Day," global markets have experienced significant volatility. The S&P 500 shed $5.83 trillion in market value over just four days, marking its steepest drop since the 1950s. Asian markets saw their worst session since 2008, reflecting widespread fears of an economic slowdown.

Since U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on April 2, termed ”Liberation Day,” global markets have experienced significant volatility. The S&P 500 shed $5.83 trillion in market value over just four days, marking its steepest drop since the 1950s. Asian markets saw their worst session since 2008, reflecting widespread fears of an economic slowdown.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yields initially fell below 4% as investors sought safety, but by April 8-9, they surged to a seven-week high of 4.515%. This spike, driven by bond market sell-offs potentially from basis trading or China’s strategic moves to pressure U.S. negotiations, suggests a precarious economic situation rather than risk-on sentiment.

On April 9, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries (excluding China, where tariffs jumped to 145%) in an effort to give markets time to absorb the changes and calm volatility. The move sparked a broad rally, with the S&P 500 surging 9.5% for its best day since 2008 and Bitcoin rebounding above $80,000 after a turbulent stretch.

Bitcoin is macro now

Despite persistent concerns about crypto volatility, Bitcoin’s price over the past two weeks has closely mirrored the S&P 500 and has actually been less volatile. This alignment reflects Bitcoin’s growing maturity as an asset class and highlights its resilience. As a highly liquid and accessible asset, it continues to attract investors looking for relative value in turbulent markets.

Sentiment shifts toward crypto ETFs

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $700 million in outflows, while Ethereum ETFs lost $400 million since March, marking a sharp reversal after nine consecutive months of inflows. The pullback points to growing institutional caution amid broader macro uncertainty. Still, on-chain data reveals that long-term holders have been steadily accumulating since January lows, signaling continued confidence in the asset class.

Macroeconomic uncertainty takes center stage

The latest U.S. CPI print came in at 2.4%, which was lower than expected. A rate cut in May still seems premature as markets assess the full impact of new protectionist measures. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned that tariffs could raise inflation while slowing growth. As a result, the probability of three rate cuts in 2025 now exceeds 60%. Declining yields may be an early signal of future monetary easing, which could favor risk assets like crypto if economic pressures intensify.

Bitcoin: Dollar’s ally or alternative?

In the face of policy uncertainty, the debate around the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status is gaining momentum. With its decentralized and censorship-resistant design, Bitcoin is emerging as both a potential complement and challenger to the dollar, especially as the U.S. increasingly wields its currency as a geopolitical tool through tariffs and sanctions.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain solid. Hashrate is at all-time highs, regulatory clarity is improving, and long-term holders continue to accumulate. With prices consolidating above $80K, the current correction may offer a strategic opportunity for investors positioning for the next leg of growth, particularly as the macro picture evolves.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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