Altcoins struggle as elections loom

The fourth quarter got off to a strong start, with bitcoin (BTC) bumping up against its all-time high late in the month and the Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) returning 7.2%.

Many crypto assets, however, struggled in October as the US elections and other uncertainties cast a shadow over bullish sentiment. Our CIO, Samir Kerbage, wrote about how the November 5th elections might impact investors and also joined a webinar with the CEO of The Digital Chamber to cover this topic in more depth. You can watch a replay of the webinar here.

As always, we are greatly appreciative of your trust in us and are here to answer any questions you may have.

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Market Review

October is typically a favorable month for crypto assets, particularly bitcoin (BTC). For this reason, the month is often referred to as “Uptober.” This year was no different: the Nasdaq Crypto Index™ (NCI™) posted a 7.2% gain, despite slight declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stock indices. However, unlike September, the vast majority of altcoins did not have a positive month.

In the first ten days of the month, the NCI™ gave back its gains from September. All NCI™ constituents recorded declines, except for Uniswap, which announced plans to develop its own layer two network on Ethereum. From then on, a strong recovery began, particularly for Bitcoin and Solana, which were up double digits by the 29th. This rally coincided with the sharp increase in Trump’s odds in election betting markets, and brought Bitcoin close to its all-time high. In the last two days of the month, crypto assets retreated, following the strong pessimism that overtook traditional markets.

Among NCI™ constituents, the positive highlights were Bitcoin and Solana, with gains of 10.6% and 9.0%, respectively. On the downside, Ripple dropped 18.6% due to the SEC lawsuit, while MATIC fell more than 20%, apparently due to migration to a new token called POL.

Among CF Benchmarks’ sectoral indices, the smallest drop was in the Smart Contract Platforms Index, mitigated by the performance of its main constituent, Solana. A similar effect was seen in the Digital Culture index, which dropped 7.6%, despite its largest constituent, SuperVerse, rising more than 20%. The Decentralized Finance (DeFi) index declined by 8.6%, with only Uniswap showing gains among its constituents. The Vinter Hashdex Risk Parity Momentum Index saw a small drop of 0.6%, heavily influenced by the sharp losses in Ripple and Near. In all five indices, the largest asset posted gains, but most other constituents did not.

In the near future, the US election results could serve as a trigger for a new all-time high in Bitcoin, as well as a recovery for smaller assets that are lagging this year. We remain optimistic about the development of the crypto asset class over the medium and long term.

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