• Arbitrum about to experience a massive token unlock event
Bitcoin above $70K, while inflation remains sticky
Bitcoin doesn’t seem to stop and keeps on reaching higher. On March 11 the biggest crypto asset jumped above the $70K mark and has maintained above it since the time of writing. The main driver continues to be the US Bitcoin Spot ETFs, which experienced record inflows of more than $1 billion on March 12. The “newborn” nine now accumulated more than 400K BTC, double the post-halving issuance of Bitcoin (~165K BTC). If this accumulation persists, a potential supply squeeze is still in play. Additionally, fundamentals also continue to be strong for Bitcoin. Last week, a Bitcoin Ordinal was sold for 17 BTC on Magic Eden, the leading NFT marketplace that has recently launched its multi-chain wallet supporting Solana, Bitcoin, Polygon, and Ethereum. Thanks to its early adoption of Bitcoin Ordinals, Magic Eden has increased in market share to over 35% in daily volumes, toppling Blur and OpenSea. However, attention should be given to Bitcoin’s open interest in futures and perpetual swaps, which remain high. As speculators and leverage traders flock to the market, we might see increased volatility in the short term.
Looking at macro data, consumer prices (CPI) rose by 0.4% in February and 3.2% over the past year, slightly hotter than expectations. Core inflation, which leaves out volatile food and energy prices, was also 0.4% over the month and 3.8% over the last year. Living conditions in the U.S. are becoming more expensive, as costs for shelter, airline tickets, and gasoline, among others, have increased in February. All eyes are on the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 20, which is expected to shed light on the Federal Reserve’s approach to potential rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants still anticipate an initial rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) by June. Despite the inflation data, over the past 5 days, markets seemed unfazed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbing by 0.64% and 0.19%, respectively.
Figure 1: US Bitcoin ETF Flows
Source: Glassnode
Dencun is live!
Ethereum’s eagerly anticipated ”Dencun” upgrade was activated on Wednesday, paving the way for a significant reduction in the costs associated with using Layer 2 rollups like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Starknet. Thanks to the Dencun upgrade, these costs are expected to decrease by as much as ten times. However, to fully realize these benefits, rollups need to undergo their own updates. The teams behind Arbitrum and Optimism, the two leading rollups, are set to implement these necessary changes on Thursday. This upgrade represents a significant leap forward for Ethereum, which has often been criticized for its slow speeds and high costs, despite aspirations for it to become a ”world computer” that underpins a new era of crypto-based financial services, social networks, and beyond. It’s important to note that while the upgrade improves transaction fees on Layer 2 platforms, it doesn’t directly affect gas fees on the Ethereum mainnet. Although the price of ETH and other Layer 2 solutions has not shown significant movement over the last 24 hours, they have experienced substantial price appreciation in the 30 days leading up to the event. This increase can be partially attributed to the surge in Bitcoin prices and speculation regarding a potential Ethereum ETF, as well as anticipation of this significant event.
Figure 2: Monthly performance of ETH and its leading scalability solution
Source: 21Shares, Coingecko (Note: Starknet launched its token on February 20, 2024)
Arbitrum Token Unlock Event
On March 16, Arbitrum plans to release 1.1 billion tokens into circulation, which means over $2 billion worth of vested ARB tokens would be added to the circulating supply. Investors should be aware that the unlock represents a 76.6% increase in the circulating supply of Arbitrum and may lead to selling pressure. However, given that the token unlock is timed closely to Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade and taking into account the current momentum in the market, the demand for ARB could rise, potentially minimizing the impact of the token release. Despite the potential market impact of ARB’s token unlock, users have persistently injected capital into the Arbitrum network, propelling it to achieve an all-time high (ATH) of $3.67 billion in AuM. Notably, it grew by close to 8% over the last week, demonstrating strong confidence in its ecosystem, in contrast to Optimism, which grew by only 0.7% over the same period.
Alternatively, on March 7, the Optimism Foundation sold $90M worth of OP in a private token sale, subject to a two-year lockup. During the lock-up period, the unidentified buyer will be able to delegate the tokens to unaffiliated third parties for governance participation. As previously noted, solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism must upgrade their networks to leverage the advantages of the Dencun upgrade. Thus, it will be intriguing to observe the extent of cost reductions and the onboarding of more users, propelling their adoption in the coming months.
Figure 3: Breakdown of ARB Token Allocation During the Unlock Event
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Paraplyfonden investerar i olika ETFer världen över. Fondens sammansättning är aktivt förvaltad och utformad för en högre riskprofil. Minst 80 % av fondens tillgångar är investerade i ETF:er som uppfyller vissa ESG-kriterier (miljömässiga, sociala och styrande). Valuta säkrad till US-dollar (USD).
ETFens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,25 % p.a. iShares Growth Portfolio UCITSETF USD Hedged (Acc) är den enda ETF som följer BlackRock ESG Multi-Asset Growth Portfolio (USD Hedged) index. ETF:n replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom fullständig replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
iShares Growth Portfolio UCITSETF USD Hedged (Acc) är en mycket liten ETF med tillgångar på 0 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETF lanserades den 29 mars 2022 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Varför MAGU?
Exponering för ett globalt diversifierat urval av börshandlade fonder (ETF) bestående av tusentals enskilda aktier och obligationer.
Strävar efter att investera hållbart genom att ha minst 80 % av sina tillgångar i ETF:s spårningsindex som uppfyller vissa miljö-, sociala och styrningskriterier (ESG).
Hanteras av BlackRock i syfte att upprätthålla en tillväxtriskprofil.
Investeringsmål
iShares Growth Portfolio UCITSETF strävar efter att ge en totalavkastning genom en aktivt förvaltad portfölj med flera tillgångar, varav minst 80 % uppfyller fondens ESG-kriterier, samtidigt som man fokuserar på en tillväxtriskprofil.
Vanguard Global Government Bond UCITSETF investerar i en portfölj av ränteobligationer denominerade i lokala valutor i utvecklade länder. Obligationerna ska ha en löptid på minst ett år och ha en investment-grade rating. Denna ETF är tillgänglig för investerare i utdelande och ackumulerande andelsklasser med valutasäkring mot euro.
YieldMax Big Tech Option Income UCITSETF förvaltas aktivt och syftar till att generera kapitaltillväxt genom exponering mot en portfölj av globala företag inom tekniksektorn, samt relaterade intäkter från utdelningar och optionspremier. Detta är YieldMax första ETF i samarbete med HANetf.
Namn
Emittent
Kortnamn
ISIN
Avgift
Utdelnings- policy
Vanguard Global Government Bond UCITSETF EUR Hedged Accumulating
Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF & ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 392 ETFer, 198 ETCer och 255 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på mer än €21 miljarder är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.
UBS ETF (IE) Nasdaq-100 ESG Enhanced UCITSETF (USD) A-acc (BCFM ETF) med ISIN IE000PWGE381, försöker spåra Nasdaq 100® Sustainable ESG Select-index. Nasdaq 100® Sustainable ESG Select-index spårar ett urval av icke-finansiella aktier noterade på NASDAQ-börsen (som huvudsakligen består av aktier från tekniksektorn). Aktierna som ingår är filtrerade och viktade enligt ESG-kriterier (miljö, social och bolagsstyrning). Det överordnade indexet är Nasdaq 100®.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,20 % p.a. UBS ETF (IE) Nasdaq-100 ESG Enhanced UCITSETF (USD) A-acc är den enda ETF som följer Nasdaq 100® Sustainable ESG Select-index. ETF:n replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
Denna ETF lanserades den 11 mars 2025 och har sin hemvist i Irland.
Översikt
Investeringsmålet är att replikera pris- och avkastningsutvecklingen för Nasdaq-100 Sustainable ESG Select Notionell Index efter avgifter (denna delfonds ”Index”).
Börspriset kan skilja sig från substansvärdet.
Fonden förvaltas passivt.
Produkten som beskrivs häri överensstämmer med artikel 8 i förordning (EU) 2019/2088.
Fördelar
Kunder drar nytta av det investerarskydd som en fond erbjuder.
Ger tillgång till detta segment av marknaden med en enda transaktion.
Optimerad risk/avkastningsprofil tack vare en bred diversifiering över en rad länder och sektorer.
Fonden erbjuder en hög grad av transparens och kostnadseffektivitet och är lätt att handla.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.