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Accessing the US Energy Revolution
Key points Accessing the US Energy Revolution
- Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) have delivered a growth in their quarterly distributions since 2014 at an average coverage ratio of 1.25 in their latest quarterly results in Mar 2016 allaying concerns of distributions cuts by MLPs. (Source: Bloomberg, Individual MLP websites)
- The sustainability of the revenue stream of MLPs when compared to oil companies amidst the backdrop of volatile oil prices, highlights that MLPs would have offered a more resilient exposure to the energy sector.
- On analysing Distribution Coverage and EV/EBITDA, we believe MLPs offer an attractive value proposition.
- MLPs recent price performance is as a result of negative sentiment transpiring from equity markets and oil price volatility, evidenced by rising correlation 0.85 and 0.63 respectively. (Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities) [correlation of monthly returns over 5 years]
- TICKER: MLPI LN Accessing the US Energy Revolution
Valuation
- 2016 expected distribution yield is 7.14% (Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities)
- The majority of MLPs in our index have a distribution coverage above 1 which supports the case for sufficient cash flows available to pay distributions.
- Weighted average distribution paid in Q4 2015 have risen on average by 15% over the prior quarter despite the heightened concerns on the sustainability of distributions. In comparison the funds available for distribution have increased by 25% leaving a margin of 10% as a cushion for future distributions.
- Historically we have witnessed MLPs increase debt levels during periods of favourable valuation. However in 2014, despite valuations EV/EBITDA reaching their peaks, MLPs have not raised debt as aggressively as done in the past rendering them in a stronger balance sheet position.
(Click to enlarge) Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities, Company websites
(Click to enlarge) Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
(Based on current basket historical data to mitigate survivorship bias)
(Click to enlarge) Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
(Based on current basket historical data to mitigate survivorship bias)
Performance
- Solactive continues to outperform its peers due to midstream focus and equal weighting methodology
- Solactive has outperformed crude oil over the past 5 years
- MLPs offer an inflation hedge due their long-term contracts which are regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and adjust to inflation annually (PPI), as well as distributions which adjust upwards according to changes in the CPI
(Click to enlarge) Source: ETF Securities, Bloomberg. The Solactive US Energy Infrastructure MLP Index is based on simulated data from 25 January 2011 to 4 March 2014 and actual data from 5 March 2014 to 31 March 2016.
(Click to enlarge) Source: ETF Securities, Bloomberg. The Solactive US Energy Infrastructure MLP Index is based on simulated data from 25 January 2011 to 4 March 2014 and actual data from 5 March 2014 to 31 March 2016.
(Click to enlarge) Source: ETF Securities, Bloomberg. The Yorkville MLP Infrastructure Universe Index TR is based on simulated data from 31 December 1996 to 15 February 2012 and actual data from 16 February 2012 to 31 March 2016.
Index recomposition March 2016
• Following the index recomposition, the representation of General Partner (GPs) has increased from 7% to 17%.
• Possible reasons:
o Undervaluation – GPs had the largest 6-month drawdown (June 15 – Jan 16) which has meant a higher expected future distribution yield.
o Alignment of interests – Owning GPs better align investors with management as most GPs own a stake (usually 2%) in their underlying LPs.
o Incentive distribution rights (IDRs) – GPs hold IDRs which entitle them to an increasing share of the total distribution released by the LP to its unitholders (in spite of a mere 2% ownership). As LPs increase their distribution to unitholders, the GP’s distribution increases proportionally much faster, in accordance with a pre-set IDR schedule. At the highest tier of the IDR schedule, a GP – through its IDR ownership – may be receiving up to 50% of equivalent cash distributions made to LP unitholders. This is known as IDR leverage. Thus IDRs have the power to significantly enhance the cash distribution profile of GPs. (IDRs are explained below)
• BAML Equity Research data shows that GPs have underperformed LPs on a total return basis but outperformed LPs on a cash distribution growth basis.
(Click to enlarge) Source: BAML Equity Research
(Click to enlarge) Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities
(as at 17 April 2016)
Takeaways
- The average distribution coverage across the index is 1.25 which is comfortably above 1 and reflects sufficient cash flow to meet cash distributions
- The expected 2016 distribution yield is 7.14% backed by healthy fundamentals and oil price-resilient revenues (i.e. good cash flow)
- MLPs offer a good inflation hedge with distributions often outpacing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and pipeline contracts that adjust for inflation annually (Producer Price Index = PPI)
- Funds for distribution are trading at a 10% premium to distributions paid so we may expect IDRs to gain value and give momentum to GP price performance
Important information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).
This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.
- Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
- Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
- What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Michael Saylor’s bold Bitcoin bet and Strategy’s risk analysis
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has amassed a staggering $43 billion in Bitcoin, positioning itself at the forefront of the corporate “reserve race.” Under the leadership of Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, the company now boasts an $84 billion market cap. But with such an aggressive strategy, how sustainable is its approach—and what risks lie ahead? We break it down in today’s analysis.
Bitcoin price technical analysis: Where are the liquidation levels?
A drop below $72,000 could flush longs, while a breakout above $90,000 may squeeze shorts. One key positive indicator is that Bitcoin continues to print higher lows since March 10, which preserves a bullish market structure in our view. Dive into our technical analysis.
What are real-world assets and why do we need tokenization?
Imagine owning a slice of a skyscraper or a piece of fine art with just a few clicks. Tokenization, the act of converting ownership rights to real-world assets (RWAs) into tradable tokens, has surpassed $10 billion in on-chain value, unlocking global 24/7 access to once-exclusive markets with liquidity, efficiency, and yield. Find out how it works.
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Since President Trump appointed Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chair two months ago, many investigations into crypto businesses have been dropped, as the SEC moves away from regulation by enforcement and works to create a framework for digital assets. As regulations become clearer and news flow turns more positive, crypto prices—which dropped sharply this week—should begin to better reflect the new regulatory landscape in the US.
We believe this regulatory shift could ultimately help trigger the next leg of the current bull run, as investors better understand the significance of regulatory clarity and seek to acquire bitcoin and altcoins at what we believe are currently very favorable levels.
Market Highlights
SEC Dismisses Crypto Enforcement Actions
The SEC dropped its enforcement actions against crypto-related companies Kraken, Consensys, and Cumberland DRW.
This indicates a shift in SEC’s regulatory approach, favoring clearer guidelines over enforcement actions. Such a pivot could foster a more predictable environment, encouraging innovation within the sector.
Banks to Engage in Crypto Activities
The FDIC has rescinded previous guidelines which prevented financial institutions from engaging with crypto activities without prior sign-off.
By removing bureaucratic hurdles, banks may more readily offer crypto-related services, potentially leading to broader adoption and integration of digital assets.
Bitcoin ETFs Inflow Streak Surpassed $1 Billion
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a 10-day inflow streak exceeding $1 billion marking the longest such streak in 2025.
This underscores growing institutional and retail investor confidence in Bitcoin as an asset class that helps increase market stability and possibly paving the way for the approval of other crypto-based financial products.
Market Metrics
All NCITM constituents had negative performance last week, with XRP (-10.8%) and UNI (-10.7%) seeing the steepest declines. ETH also experienced a sharp drop (-9.1%), contributing to NCITM’s underperformance relative to BTC (-2.9%). The NCITM -4.2% decline reflects a broader risk-off sentiment in the crypto market, as investors reassess their positions amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
NCITM (-4.2%) extended its underperformance last week, deepening year-to-date losses. Traditional indices like the S&P 500 (-1.5%) and Nasdaq 100 (-2.4%) saw smaller declines. The gap between crypto and other risk assets continues to widen, while gold has emerged as the top performer in 2025, gaining nearly 20% amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. This trend highlights a growing risk-off sentiment, with investors shifting toward defensive assets and away from high-volatility investments.
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