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A mixed outlook for commodities in 2018

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8 år sedan

den

6 januari, 2018

been broad-based too, driven not only by the Iran issues inflating the oil price but a rally in industrial/precious metals and agriculture. A mixed outlook for commodities in 2018.

Commodities have enjoyed a great start to 2018, from the low point mid-December they have rallied 6.5%, the performance has been broad-based too, driven not only by the Iran issues inflating the oil price but a rally in industrial/precious metals and agriculture. A mixed outlook for commodities in 2018.

We are wary of some who are interpreting this as being a positive sign for broad commodities this year. Commodities as an asset class are a very heterogeneous group and we expect varied performance from each. So to start the year we thought we would provide a brief summary of our views.

Gold

Although we expect the Fed to continue to tighten policy, we think the downside risks to gold prices are limited because real interest rates will remain depressed as inflation gains pace in the US. However, a shock event, such as an equity market correction, could force gold prices higher. On balance we see little change in gold prices in the coming year. Investors continue to be optimistic about gold despite the rising interest rate environment, we believe this is due to investors now seeing gold as an insurance policy from geopolitical concerns rather than investment.

Gold price Forecast

Most of the variation in gold price in our bull and bear cases (compared to our base case) comes from assumptions around investor positioning. Many measures of market volatility are currently subdued. However, several risks – both political and financial – exist. Sentiment towards gold could shift significantly depending on which of these views dominate market psyche.

In our bull case scenario, where we would see a more dovish Fed, gold could rise to US$1420. There are also numerous risks which can push demand for gold futures higher:

• Continued sabre-rattling between US/Japan/South Korea and North Korea;
• The proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran escalates;
• A disorderly unwind of credit in China;
• Italian policy paralysed by the inability to form a government after the election;
• Catalonian independence pushing Spain close to civil war
• A potential second general election in Germany; and
• Market volatility measures such as the VIX (equity), MOVE (bond) spike as yield-trades unwind

In our bear case, we assume the Fed delivers four rates hikes in 2018 as it tries to anchor inflation expectations. 10-year nominal Treasury yields rise to 3.3% by the end of the year, while the US dollar appreciates. By year-end inflation falls back to 1.6%. In this scenario we assume that the absence of any geopolitical risk or adverse financial market shock. In this scenario gold could fall to US$1110/oz by end of 2018.

Crude Oil

In 2018, US production will likely hit an all-time high, surpassing the cycle peak reached before the price war in 2014 and above the 10 million barrel mark last hit in 1970. There is little indication that the backwardation in futures curves is going to stop US production from expanding. Unless investors are constantly reminded of geopolitical risks, the price premium tends to evaporate within a matter of weeks.

Inventories have been declining across the OECD although we are unlikely to see the decline in inventories continue. US shale oil production can break-even at close to US$40/bbl. With WTI oil currently trading at US$60/bbl, there is plenty of headroom for profitability and we expect a strong expansion in supply.

Break even by play

In late 2017, OPEC and its 10 non-OPEC partners posted their best level of compliance with the production curb deal to date. We think that compliance in the extended deal announced end-November will fall short of expectations in 2018. Russia’s insistence on discussing an exit strategy and a review in June 2018 indicates that the patience of non-OPEC partners in the deal is wearing thin.

With the US expanding supply and OPEC likely to under deliver on its promise to consistently curb production, we expect the supply to grow. At the same time demand is unlikely to continue to grow at the current pace, with prices having gained 33% over the past year.

We expect the oil price to remain in a range from US$45 to US$60/bbl for 2018, although a significant geopolitical upset in the Middle East could cause temporary price spikes.

Industrial Metals

We expect the star performer for 2018 to be industrial metals. They are likely to benefit the most from improving EM growth, at the same time we expect supply to remain in deficit in 2018 as the lack of investment in mining infrastructure continues to bite.

Emerging market (EM) demand is crucial for commodity markets as they represent 70% of industrial metals demand. In this respect, we expect any weakness in commodity prices to be largely offset by solid demand growth, again led by China. Although concerns remain over the build-up of debt, Chinese policymakers have continued to show a willingness to support the financial system with stimulus to ease financial conditions.

Since industrial metal prices began to fall in 2011, capital expenditure by miners collapsed. In mid-2017 capital expenditure by the largest 100 mines was 60% lower than in mid-2013. Given the long lag times behind investment and completion of mines, we don’t expect the tightness of mine supply to reverse any time soon.

Miners have been cautious to increase spending as they wait for the price recovery to prove sustainable. Historically we have seen about a year-long lag between a recovery in price and a recovery in capital spending. It is likely in 2018, as commodity prices continue to rise, that we see capital expenditure growth turn positive, although the damage of 4 years of lack of investment in to mining infrastructure has already occurred and is why industrial metals remain in a supply deficit.

Miners margin vs Supply/Demand

Historically we have found that metal markets begin to move towards a balance two years after miner profit margins hit rock-bottom. Miner margins fell to a low of 2% at the beginning of 2016 and since have recovered to just over 7%. So if we see a repeat of historical patterns, we should see supply begin to improve in late 2018, but it could take years to move back into balance.

James Butterfill, Head of Research & Investment Strategy at ETF Securities

James Butterfill joined ETF Securities as Head of Research & Investment Strategy in 2015. James is responsible for leading the strategic direction of the global research team, ensuring that clients receive up-to-date, expert insight into global macroeconomic and asset class specific developments.

James has a wealth of experience in strategy, economics and asset allocation gained at HSBC and most recently in his role as Multi- Asset Fund Manager and Global Equity Strategist at Coutts. James holds a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Exeter and an MSc in Geophysics from Keele University.

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VALOUR VIRTUAL SEK följer priset på VIRTUAL, Virtuals Protocols egna token

Publicerad

6 minuter sedan

den

13 oktober, 2025

Redaktionen

Valour Virtuals (VIRTUAL) (VALOUR VIRTUAL SEK) med ISIN CH1108681664, är en börshandlad produkt som följer priset på VIRTUAL, Virtuals Protocols egna token. Virtuals är ett protokoll på Base-blockkedjan som gör det möjligt att skapa och tokenisera AI-drivna virtuella agenter. Dessa agenter kan ägas, styras och finansieras gemensamt med hjälp av blockkedjeteknik, vilket öppnar för nya möjligheter inom spel, underhållning och digitala gemenskaper.

Beskrivning

Valours certifikat-produkter är reglerade börshandlade produkter, var och en fullt säkrad av respektive digitala tillgångar. För att säkerställa en säker förvaring av de underliggande tillgångarna samarbetar Valour med förstklassiga licensierade förvaringsinstitut som Copper och Komainu. Certifikaten handlas på reglerade börser och multilaterala handelsplattformar (MTF:er) och erbjuder transparent prissättning och likviditet. Valours grundprospekt är godkända av Finansinspektionen och uppfyller EU:s krav på fullständighet, tydlighet och enhetlighet.

Produktinformation

Produktnamn	Valour Virtuals SEK
Emittent	Valour Inc
Basvaluta	SEK
Förvaltningsavgift	1,90 %
ISIN	CH1108681664
Valoren	110868166
WKN	A4APXX
Förfallodag	Open-ended
Underliggande Tillgång	Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL)

Handla VALOUR VIRTUAL SEK

Valour Virtuals (VIRTUAL) (VALOUR VIRTUAL SEK) är en europeisk börshandlad produkt som handlas på bland annat Spotlight Stock Market.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, Levler, DEGIRO och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

Namn	Valuta	Kortnamn
Spotlight Stock Market	SEK	VALOUR VIRTUAL SEK

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Crypto market update: record liquidations amid tariff shock

Publicerad

20 timmar sedan

den

12 oktober, 2025

Redaktionen

During and after the US market close on Friday, cryptocurrency markets experienced their largest liquidation event on record, with an estimated USD 19 billion in leveraged positions unwound across futures and perpetual swap markets.

What Happened

The selloff began following President Trump’s announcement of an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports, a move that triggered a sharp risk-off reaction across global markets. U.S. equities had their worst session since April, and with traditional markets closed for the weekend, crypto became the only major market still open for price discovery.

Nearly 90% of liquidations were long positions, underscoring how leveraged bullish sentiment had become across digital assets.

By asset:

• Bitcoin (BTC) saw over $5 billion in positions liquidated, falling roughly 12.5% intraday, from highs of ~$122,600 to lows near $107,000.

• Ethereum (ETH) recorded around $4 billion in liquidations, declining more than 20% from $4,400 to ~$3,500.

• Solana (SOL) experienced $1.8 billion in liquidations and dropped as much as 22% before recovering some ground.

While Bitcoin’s percentage price decline is in line with historical shocks, and only took the price back to where it was two weeks ago, it was a three-standard deviation move vs the past three years during which the asset saw broader institutional adoption. Moreover, the episode represents the largest forced liquidation event in crypto’s history in both size and concentration of long positions.

Liquidity Dynamics: The Perfect Storm

The scale of the move was amplified by fragile liquidity across both spot and derivatives markets. Order books were thin heading into the weekend, leaving markets especially vulnerable to shocks.

The timing compounded the impact:

• The announcement hit just after the U.S. cash equity close and before a long weekend (Columbus Day), when liquidity naturally declines.

• With most global asset classes offline, crypto became the only outlet for risk repricing.

• As liquidity thinned, automated liquidations triggered a domino effect across exchanges.

Funding rates flipped sharply negative—particularly in Solana—signaling an abrupt pivot from leveraged longs to short positioning. In some altcoins, liquidity deteriorated so severely that price wicks reached near-zero levels before stabilizing.

Complicating matters, several major exchanges experienced infrastructure strain as trading volumes surged over 140% to ~$180 billion in a matter of hours. APIs froze, oracles glitched, and order books briefly went dark. This led to mispriced liquidations and system-wide stress, highlighting again that crypto’s operational fragility often lies not in blockchains themselves, but in the centralized trading infrastructure that sits around them.

What We’re Hearing from the Market

Market participants describe Friday’s events as a systemic deleveraging that caught even sophisticated funds off guard. Several leveraged traders and funds reportedly suffered heavy losses, and rumors persist of at least one major market maker being forced to unwind positions.

Some internal exchange estimates suggest total liquidations—including unreported DeFi exposures—could approach USD 30 billion once weekend trading is fully accounted for.

Volatility spiked dramatically, with Bitcoin implied volatility reaching levels not seen since the FTX collapse. While unsettling, such spikes are often short-lived and tend to normalize as market depth recovers.

Source: Glassnode

Looking Ahead

Despite the record size of liquidations, the price impact was moderate by historical standards, with Bitcoin’s drawdown smaller than those seen during prior major deleveraging events. Markets had been trading at all-time highs just days earlier, so a correction of this magnitude is not entirely unexpected.

So far, crypto markets appear to be stabilizing, though volumes remain light and sentiment cautious.

Key areas we’re watching in the near term include:

• Asian equity and futures markets as they reopen Monday, which may influence crypto sentiment.

• CME futures basis and funding rates as indicators of capital flows and arbitrage activity.

• Ethereum staking queues, which could become further stretched if the selloff continues.

Historically, large-scale liquidation events have been followed by periods of consolidation lasting one to two months before recovery. The previous two major liquidation cycles saw drawdowns of 19–24% over ~60 days, with full recovery typically taking three to five months.

Currently, Bitcoin funding rates remain within normal ranges, suggesting arbitrage desks continue to operate efficiently. However, with Solana’s funding still deeply negative, we could see a short squeeze if sentiment turns and liquidity returns.

Our View

While last week’s events highlight ongoing structural fragilities—particularly in leverage and centralized infrastructure—they also demonstrate that core blockchain networks remained resilient throughout.

For investors, this underscores the value of crypto exposure via regulated, physically backed ETPs over leveraged trading venues, where forced liquidations and operational risks can amplify volatility.

Overall, we view the selloff as a healthy, if painful, reset of speculative excess. As macro uncertainty persists, disciplined position sizing and diversification across regulated products remain key.

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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Hur investera i Blockchain med hjälp av börshandlade fonder

Publicerad

21 timmar sedan

den

12 oktober, 2025

Redaktionen

En blockkedja är en typ av datalagring där block av krypterad data baseras på varandra. Således är en oupptäckt manipulation av data inte längre möjlig vilket är en orsak till att investera i blockchain. Decentraliserad datalagring eliminerar behovet av central administration, vilket idag krävs för exempelvis värdepapper. Blockkedjeprincipen kan tillämpas på många branscher, processer och fall. Det är grunden för kryptovalutor som Bitcoin. Den kan också användas för kontrakt, för certifiering av äganderätter, inom logistik och för många andra ändamål.

Om blockchain blir allmänt accepterad kommer det att ske stora strukturella förändringar i många sektorer av ekonomin. Detta är vad företag som är involverade i infrastruktur, processer och teknologier relaterade till blockchain räknar med.

I den här investeringsguiden hittar du alla ETFer som gör att du kan investera i blockchain. Vi har identifierat sju olika index som spåras av lika många börshandlade fonder. Den årliga förvaltningskostnaden ligger på mellan 0,45 och 0,75 procent.

En jämförelse av ETFer för att investera i fonder för blockchain

Förutom avkastning finns det ytterligare viktiga faktorer att tänka på när du väljer en fonder för blockchain. För att ge ett bra beslutsunderlag hittar du en lista över alla börshandlade fonder för blockchain med information om kortnamn, kostnad, utdelningspolicy, fondens hemvist och replikeringsmetod.

För ytterligare information om respektive börshandlad fond, klicka på kortnamnet i tabellen nedan.

Namn ISIN	Kortnamn	Avgift %	Utdelnings- policy	Hemvist	Replikerings- metod
Invesco CoinShares Global Blockchain UCITS ETF Acc IE00BGBN6P67	BNXG	0.65%	Ackumulerande	Irland	Optimerad sampling
VanEck Crypto and Blockchain Innovators UCITS ETF IE00BMDKNW35	DAVV	0.65%	Ackumulerande	Irland	Fysisk replikering
iShares Blockchain Technology UCITS ETF USD (Acc) IE000RDRMSD1	CBUT	0.50%	Ackumulerande	Irland	Fysisk replikering
First Trust Indxx Innovative Transaction & Process UCITS ETF Acc IE00BF5DXP42	LEGR	0.65%	Ackumulerande	Irland	Fysisk replikering
Global X Blockchain UCITS ETF USD Ackumulerande IE000XAGSCY5	BLCH	0.50%	Ackumulerande	Irland	Fysisk replikering
Melanion Bitcoin Equities UCITS ETF FR0014002IH8	BTC	0.75%	Ackumulerande	Frankrike	Optimerad sampling
WisdomTree Blockchain UCITS ETF USD Acc IE000940RNE6	WBKN	0.45%	Ackumulerande	Irland	Fysisk replikering