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A closer look at emerging market equities
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7 år sedanden
ETF Securities Portfolio Insights: A closer look at emerging market equities
Summary
- Global equities have been rallying in 2017, led by Asian emerging countries and North America to a lesser extent.
- The IMF expects Asian economies to continue to drive global growth while central banks in advanced economies are gradually reducing their financial support.
- We believe US equities are overvalued and see greater opportunities within Latin American and Asian equities for 2018.
Global equities have been rallying since the end of 2016 as strong economic data from major advanced and developing countries combined with a decline in perceived political uncertainty has led to a surge of optimism on the global financial market. Extremely accommodative monetary policies in place since the great financial crisis are bearing fruit. 2018 will likely see these accommodative policies gradually dismantled, opening the path to new investment opportunities.
2017 performance
This year has seen global equities rallying since November 2016 as market participants are more confident that global economic growth has returned and will continue. While few risks remain, with the Italian election next year and the ongoing fight against terrorism and North Korea, the populist threat seen in 2016 has faded away. Unemployment is near its lowest in the US and UK with central banks now focussing on dismantling quantitative easing and tackling the inflation issue.
Looking at 2017 performance so far, the MSCI AC World index rose by 22%, driven by the rally of emerging markets (EM) and more specifically, emerging countries from Asia (39%). The developed markets (DM) with North America come second at 19.5%, followed by emerging Latin America at 18.5%. While one would expect volatility to pick up, 2017 saw the market volatility index (VIX) at its lowest level ever, at 9.6 on average, compared to 20 its historical average, suggesting that investors could increase their allocation to equities almost risk free.
Of the top 20 performers, 75% are emerging market countries. Argentina is leading the board with 62.6% year-to-date while China comes fourth (52%) and India eleventh (25.7%).
In its October World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated global growth at 3.6% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018 from 3.2% in 2016 driven by rising industrial activities and business and consumer confidence. Global growth will be mainly driven by EM countries projected at 4.6% in 2017 and 4.9% in 2018. China GDP has been revised upward by 0.2% compared to April, at 6.8% in 2017 and 6.5% in 2018 while India GDP for 2017 was revised down from 7.2% to 6.7%. In Latin America, Argentina is expected to rebound after last year’s recession with growth projected at 2.5% for 2017 and 2018 as consumption and investment recover.
What are the ratios saying?
The cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio (CAPE) of DM over EM shows that developing countries remain attractive from a valuation point of view. Whilst the MSCI Emerging Market index has returned 30% year-to-date, the below chart suggests there is still scope for further gains in 2018.
In the following chart, the Latin American countries Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Chile, appear to be the most undervalued. Despite prices for these countries rising by 23% on average, the CAPE ratio remains below their respective historical averages driven by lower-than-average real earnings. However, all except Chile saw their real earnings growing this year in absolute terms, suggesting further potential catch-up of their earnings in the near term.
At the other end of the spectrum, US, Japan and few European countries are considered as overvalued. The CAPE ratio for each stands above their historical level due to real earnings having already catched up with its respective historical level and price rally. Further gains would be more difficult to justify.
A closer look at China
Xi Jinping came out of the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party stronger than ever. Elevated to the same level as Mao Zedong, the president of the Republic of China has been given more power than any of his contemporary predecessors and with no one in its close committee potentially qualified to replace him in five years. With Xi having a history of stalling reform, we may see the implementation of short term stimulus, as opposed to long term structural reforms, continue. This should be positive for Chinese equities as the country focuses on sustainable growth, attracting foreign investment and remaining the largest consumers of commodities to meet the need of its economy and population. The outcome has initially been positively received as the MSCI China Index gained 8% one month following the Congress before declining recently as Chinese economic activities continue to show signs of a mild slowdown.
The above chart shows that China CAPE ratio currently stands above its historical level, suggesting that Chinese equities are overvalued. However, the surge of the MSCI China Index price level has been the main driver of the increase in the CAPE ratio. The index real earnings per share have been below its historical average over the past two years but are gradually recovering toward its mean since the beginning of the year. This picture combined with the potential decade length investiture of the “Strongman” suggests further potential upside for Chinese equities in the medium term.
Non-resident capital inflows in EM, mainly China, reached a bottom in 2015, according to the IMF, on concerns over the impact the US taper tantrum could have on EM asset prices and the potential depreciation of the Yuan. Inflows have revived since but is still half of the volume seen at its peak in Q1 2013. The recovery of investor sentiment regarding the global economy should see capital inflows in EM assets increase further in 2018.
Important Information
General
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
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• $TRUMP & $MELANIA: The launch of both memecoins dominated headlines, with $TRUMP reaching a $73B fully diluted valuation. These launches are indicative of a late-stage bull market, often characterized by speculative exuberance.
• Solana Continues to Outperform: Solana reached an all-time high of $286, cementing its role as the leading blockchain for retail activity due to its high performance, low costs, and user-friendly ecosystem.
• Solana Remained Robust: Despite congestion and the rate of failed transactions rising by 20%, the network remained stable compared to prior years, avoiding outages even under unprecedented demand.
• Bitcoin Quietly Hits ATH: Ahead of the inauguration, Bitcoin surged to a new ATH just shy of $109K, largely under the radar amidst the memecoin frenzy.
• DeFi Momentum Builds: Trump’s World Liberty Fund continued its aggressive crypto accumulation, totaling $350M in cryptoasset holdings. This signals potential regulatory leniency for DeFi under the new administration.
• A New Crypto Era Dawns: With crypto-friendly cabinet nominees, initiatives such as the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR), a Presidential Crypto Council, an SEC-driven crypto task force, and moves to simplify regulations, the administration signals its intent to foster innovation while solidifying the U.S.’s leadership in the cryptoasset industry.
The crypto market surged in anticipation of Trump’s inauguration, especially following the launch of his official memecoin, $TRUMP, in the early hours of Saturday. The token’s fully diluted valuation soared to $73B, attracting around 850K holders and significantly boosting Trump’s net worth in Solana-based assets. Following this, First Lady Melania Trump introduced her own memecoin, $MELANIA, on Sunday. It briefly reached a market cap of approximately $2B before experiencing a 75% retracement, as seen below in Figure 1. The frenzy surrounding these tokens propelled Solana to reach an ATH of around $286 as investors rushed to buy the asset and participate in the ecosystem. However, it’s important to remember that this level of market exuberance typically signals the late stages of a bull market, warranting a more strategic approach from investors. Nevertheless, while vigilance is called for, it’s crucial to recognize that markets still have room for growth, particularly as asset prices often exhibit explosive upside movements in the latter stages of a bull market.
Figure 1: TRUMP & MELANIA Price Performance
Source: 21Shares, Dune
Despite $TRUMP’s questionable tokenomics and potential risks for inexperienced investors, its launch likely signals a shift toward a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under the new administration. Further, the token’s controversial success highlights memecoins’ role as an effective tool for onboarding crypto newcomers. Unlike complex blockchain projects, memecoins offer a simpler entry point into the crypto world. They can serve as a ”trojan horse,” attracting retail investors with their accessibility and cultural appeal. This initial engagement can then potentially lead users to explore more sophisticated aspects of the crypto ecosystem, including decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and AI-based projects.
That said, their extreme volatility poses significant risks as inexperienced traders may suffer losses from the tokens’ wild price swings, potentially discouraging them from further engaging with crypto.
Despite the mixed short-term and long-term effects, last week’s events revealed a clear beneficiary: Solana. Thanks to its high performance and low costs, the network has now cemented its position as the go-to platform for retail activity. Despite intense usage over the weekend, it avoided typical outages seen in 2022 and 2023, demonstrating improved stability. While some applications, like Coinbase and Phantom, faced challenges with unprecedented demand, causing temporary transaction failures to increase by almost 20%, as seen below, Solana’s network remained robust compared to previous years. What’s worth remembering is that Solana’s resilience during this surge of activity, marked by zero outages, bodes well for its ambitious goal of becoming the ”NASDAQ on the Blockchain.”
Figure 2: Solana Failed Transaction Rate
Source: 21Shares, Dune
It’s worth noting that Solana’s robust performance during this activity surge, handling up to $45B in transactions on January 20 without any outages, demonstrates the network’s progress towards their North Star of becoming ”NASDAQ on the Blockchain.” This feat is particularly impressive when compared to Nasdaq’s average daily volume of $120B, underscoring Solana’s growing capacity to handle significant financial throughput.
As depicted below, even with a significant fee increase, Solana maintains cost-effectiveness, reinforcing its appeal to retail users. However, it’s crucial to look beyond its association with speculative activities. The network is now making significant inroads in diverse sectors, demonstrating its versatility and real-world utility. Notable examples include Decentralized Physical Infrastructure (DePIN) projects like Helium, Render, and HiveMapper; AI initiatives such as Griffain and Ai16z; and tokenization efforts supported by traditional financial institutions, including Franklin Templeton, Hamilton Lane’s SCOPE, and Ondo Finance. This broad spectrum of applications underscores Solana’s potential as a robust platform for innovation across multiple industries.
Figure 3: Solana Transaction Fees
Source: 21Shares, Dune
Similarly, Trump’s endorsed DeFi initiative, World Liberty Financial, has steadily expanded its cryptoasset holding over the recent weeks. In its latest round of acquisitions over the weekend, the project added $47M in ETH and WBTC and $4.7M each in Aave, LINK, TRX, and ENA to its portfolio. This takes the total amount of World Liberty’s holdings up to $350M worth of cryptoassets. It is worth noting that the yet-to-launch protocol is staking ETH with Lido, further echoing the idea that Trump is bullish on DeFi and that the industry will likely grow under his administration.
In this context, despite widespread anticipation, crypto was not mentioned in President Trump’s inaugural address or a leaked Republican policy document outlining national priorities. This omission contrasts with earlier speculation that crypto would become a central focus of the administration. However, it’s crucial to maintain a long-term perspective: Trump’s administration remains one of the most crypto-friendly globally, as evidenced by key pro-crypto appointments and proposed policies. In the following sections, we will explore these initiatives and their potential impact on the digital asset industry.
Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
While it may have gone under the radar, BTC also reached a new ATH, just shy of $109K, ahead of Inauguration Day. Relatedly, Trump’s administration has proposed creating a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR) to position Bitcoin as a critical financial and strategic asset, similar to gold reserves. The reserve would utilize approximately 80K Bitcoin seized by the U.S. Marshals, redirecting these assets into national holdings rather than auctioning them. Expanding the reserve to a rumored 1M BTC would require Congressional approval for market purchases or over-the-counter acquisitions, potentially funded by U.S. gold reserves.
Figure 4: Theoretical Bitcoin Strategic Reserve If 1M BTC Held Since 2016
Source: 21Shares, Coingecko
The BSR would classify Bitcoin as a strategic asset, held for at least 20 years and only sold to address U.S. debt. Advocates argue this could hedge against inflation, stabilize the dollar, and leverage Bitcoin’s appreciation to reduce national debt. Additionally, it could trigger a global race among nations to accumulate Bitcoin, driving its price higher and positioning the U.S. as a leader in the emerging digital economy. However, such a move would require significant regulatory changes and face challenges like volatility and opportunity costs.
Presidential Crypto Council
Trump’s administration plans to form a presidential crypto council of about 20 industry leaders, including CEOs and founders of major crypto companies. This advisory group would provide insights into the digital asset landscape and help shape innovation-friendly policies while addressing regulatory concerns. Rumored members include Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy), Brian Armstrong (Coinbase), Jeremy Allaire (Circle), Charles Hoskinson (Cardano/Ethereum), and Brad Garlinghouse (Ripple). The council aims to ensure crypto regulation reflects real-world challenges and opportunities, demonstrating the administration’s commitment to industry engagement and positioning the U.S. as a global blockchain leader.
SEC Repeal of SAB 121
A key rumored executive order from Trump’s administration involves repealing SAB 121, an SEC accounting rule requiring companies to treat client cryptoassets as balance sheet liabilities. This repeal would:
- Reduce operational risks for firms
- Encourage broader institutional participation
- Accelerate crypto service adoption in finance
- Signal a business-friendly regulatory approach
By easing regulatory friction, this move could enhance U.S. crypto firms’ competitiveness and position the country as a global leader in cryptoasset custody and management.
SEC and CFTC Joint Collaboration on Crypto Market Structure
Another key executive order reportedly under consideration by Trump’s administration involves directing the SEC and CFTC to collaborate on a crypto market structure bill, building on the foundation laid by the FIT21 framework. This initiative aims to establish a unified regulatory framework for digital assets, addressing long-standing jurisdictional ambiguities that have left cryptoassets caught between classifications as securities or commodities. The bill would create clear and consistent rules by fostering cooperation between these two agencies, reducing regulatory uncertainty, and fostering innovation.
Ending Operation Chokepoint 2.0: Restoring Banking Access for U.S. Crypto Companies
Trump’s administration plans to address the FDIC’s debanking of crypto companies and end ”Operation Chokepoint 2.0,” a controversial initiative that restricted banking access for the crypto industry with the likes of Kraken, Coinbase, Signature Bank, Paxos, and Binance.US all sharing a similar experience. The administration aims to restore fair treatment and financial access for crypto companies by instructing federal agencies to cease discriminatory practices. This move would provide stability, attract institutional players to the U.S. crypto market, and reaffirm the administration’s commitment to fostering a competitive financial environment.
SEC’s Shift in Stance Could Pave the Way for Expanded Crypto Spot ETPs
A revamped SEC under the new administration is set to redefine crypto regulations, legitimizing the industry and fostering innovation. Clear and fair rules would signal that the U.S. is open for business, attracting top talent and projects. This regulatory clarity is expected to unlock institutional capital as traditional finance gains the confidence to invest in digital assets with legal protections. The SEC’s progressive stance increases the likelihood of approving multiple spot crypto ETPs, enabling broader adoption and integration into traditional investment portfolios. This shift validates the crypto industry and positions the U.S. as a leader in financial innovation. Further, the newly established crypto-focused task force led by Commissioner Hester Pierce is designed to establish clear regulatory guidelines, practical registration paths, and sensible disclosure frameworks for crypto companies. Thus, this new body could help approve a broader range of ETPs.
Trump Cabinet Members
While Trump’s proposed appointees are yet to go through Senate approvals, here’s a quick overview of key pro-crypto members.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services): A Bitcoin advocate who views it as the ”currency of freedom” and hedge against inflation, with most of his net worth invested in Bitcoin.
• David Sacks (Crypto and AI Czar): Early Bitcoin investor and backer of projects like Solana and dYdX, bringing deep expertise to blockchain innovation.
• Paul Atkins (Chair of the SEC): Former SEC commissioner with extensive experience helping crypto-native companies navigate regulatory compliance.
• JD Vance (Vice President): A Bitcoin supporter and venture capitalist with investments in blockchain startups and a crucial advocate for pro-crypto legislative initiatives.
• Elon Musk (Co-Head of D.O.G.E): A vocal supporter of blockchain innovation, holding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin, with Tesla’s $1.5B Bitcoin investment under his leadership.
• Vivek Ramaswamy (Co-Head of D.O.G.E): A vocal crypto advocate and co-founder of Strive Asset Management, Ramaswamy launched the Strive Bitcoin Bond ETF, proposed backing the U.S. dollar with Bitcoin, and champions clear regulations and wallet protections to drive innovation and financial freedom.
• Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce): CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, managing Tether’s U.S. treasury portfolio while acquiring a 5% stake, and holds personal Bitcoin investments worth hundreds of millions.
• Scott Bessent (Secretary of the Treasury): Founder of Key Square Group, Bessent advocates for balanced crypto regulations and has made sizable personal investments of $250K–$500K in Bitcoin ETPs.
For a deeper dive into their backgrounds and potential impact, check out our full breakdown on our latest blog.
All in all, while Trump did not address crypto in his inauguration speech or through executive orders, he has already begun appointing key figures supportive of the industry. Thus, he is starting to follow through with his promises. It seems he’s headed towards fostering a pro-crypto environment that provides a clearer path for companies to operate within the U.S.
Nevertheless, with the exuberant market activity we’ve seen in the last few days, it’s an opportune time for investors to stay mindful and ensure their positions remain aligned with their long-term objectives and risk tolerance.
What’s happening this week?
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
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Börshandlade produkter som ger exponering mot AAVE
Publicerad
19 timmar sedanden
23 januari, 2025I denna text tittar vi närmare på olika börshandlade produkter som ger exponering mot AAVE. Precis som för många andra kryptovalutor och tokens finns det flera olika börshandlade produkter som spårar AAVE. Vi har identifierar fyra stycken sådana produkter.
De olika produkterna skiljer sig en del åt, en del av emittenter av ETPer arbetar med så kallad staking för vissa kryptovalutor, vilket gör att förvaltningsavgiften kan pressas ned. Det är emellertid inte så att alla dessa börshandlade produkter är identiska varför det är viktigt att läsa på.
Börshandlade produkter som ger exponering mot AAVE
Precis som för många andra kryptovalutor och tokens finns det flera olika börshandlade produkter som spårar AAVE. Det finns faktiskt en börshandlad produkt som är noterade på svenska börser vilket gör att den som vill handla med dessa slipper växlingsavgifterna, något som kan vara skönt om det gäller upprepade transaktioner i olika riktningar.
För ytterligare information om respektive ETP klicka på kortnamnet i tabellen nedan.
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UIW1 ETF ger exponering mot socialt ansvariga företag i Europa
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23 januari, 2025UBS ETF (LU) MSCI Europe Socially Responsible UCITS ETF (EUR) A-acc (UIW1 ETF) med ISIN LU2206597804, strävar efter att spåra MSCI Europe SRI Low Carbon Select 5% Issuer Capped-index. MSCI Europe SRI Low Carbon Select 5% Emittent Capped-index spårar värdepapper från Europa. Endast företag med mycket höga ESG-betyg (Environmental, Social and Governance) i förhållande till sina branschkollegor ingår. Vikten för varje företag är begränsad till 5 %.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18 % per år. UBS ETF (LU) MSCI Europe Socially Responsible UCITS ETF (EUR) A-acc är den billigaste och största ETFen som följer MSCI Europe SRI Low Carbon Select 5% Emittent Begränsat index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.
UBS ETF (LU) MSCI Europe Socially Responsible UCITS ETF (EUR) A-acc har tillgångar på 142 miljoner euro under förvaltning. Denna ETF lanserades den 26 februari 2021 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.
Översikt
Investeringsmålet är att replikera pris- och avkastningsutvecklingen för MSCI Europe SRI Low Carbon Select 5 % Emittenttak med totalavkastning nettoindex netto efter avgifter.
Fonden investerar i allmänhet i aktier som ingår i MSCI Europe SRI Low Carbon Select 5% Issuer Capped Index. Bolagens relativa viktning motsvarar deras viktning i index.
Fonden förvaltas passivt.
Handla UIW1 ETF
UBS ETF (LU) MSCI Europe Socially Responsible UCITS ETF (EUR) A-acc (UIW1 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och SIX Swiss Exchange.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest, SAVR och Avanza.
Börsnoteringar
Största innehav
Värdepapper | ISIN | Valuta | Vikt % |
ASML HOLDING NV | NL0010273215 | EUR | 5.51 |
ROCHE HOLDING AG-GENUSSCHEIN | CH0012032048 | CHF | 5.09 |
NOVO NORDISK A/S-B | DK0062498333 | DKK | 5.03 |
SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE | FR0000121972 | EUR | 4.92 |
ABB LTD-REG | CH0012221716 | CHF | 3.34 |
RELX PLC | GB00B2B0DG97 | GBP | 3.13 |
ZURICH INSURANCE GROUP AG | CH0011075394 | CHF | 2.89 |
HERMES INTERNATIONAL | FR0000052292 | EUR | 2.83 |
MUENCHENER RUECKVER AG-REG | DE0008430026 | EUR | 2.51 |
ESSILORLUXOTTICA | FR0000121667 | EUR | 2.48 |
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