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4 defensively-oriented strategies to consider in 2019

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4 defensively-oriented strategies to consider in 2019

Global markets, led largely by US equities, have been treated to a fairly robust period since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09. As 2019 begins, investors are beginning to think about what might happen if that next recession actually materializes, as the US has undergone what is now close to the longest ever economic expansion in the post World War Two period. Importantly, measures of volatility indicate a higher overall level of risk, relative to either the start of 2017 or the start of 2018.

In such environments, we believe that investors might be thinking about positioning their investment strategies in a more defensively-oriented manner. There still could be good reason to hold risky assets, as late cycle rallies can and do occur, but it may now be more important to mitigate downside risk.

We’d cite the age-old investment truism—if a portfolio loses 50% of its value, what is the rate of return required to get back to even? While many might initially say “50%”, the true answer is 100%. Strategies that lead to the potential for less negative returns in tougher markets can therefore be quite valuable.

At WisdomTree, we can think of four primary means to mitigate the risk that a given strategy drops significantly in a given downturn. Unfortunately, they don’t always work to the same degree and they aren’t guaranteed to work across every market downdraft, but they are important to keep in mind nonetheless.

Strategy 1: Find historically low valuations.

When investors locate valuations that are at or near historic lows, this can be an important signal that a lot of risks that may be dominating the headlines have been priced in. Another way to think of this is that all the reasons to worry have already caused the market in question to decline, so absent even more, new and surprising reasons to worry, it could be tough for that market to decline further. There is word commonly associated with this type of strategy: Contrarian.

Possible markets to consider on this basis: Emerging markets, Italian equities—particularly Italian financial sector, and Japanese equities.

Strategy 2: Find high dividend yielding stocks

One aspect of this strategy considers that, in equities, there is always a dividend component and a price component of a given total return calculation. The dividend component, at worst, can be zero, in that there are no dividends, whereas the price component can clearly be positive, zero, or negative. A strategy focused on higher yielding stocks is tilting more of the total return’s generation towards dividends and way from prices, and, since the dividend component of the return is less volatile, this is one way to lower the risk of an equity strategy.

The other aspect to consider regards the fact that higher yielding stocks tend to be found in more defensively oriented sectors, such as utilities. Tilting exposure toward these sectors can be another potential avenue through which the total risk of an equity strategy can be lowered.

Possible markets to consider on this basis: Emerging markets equities, European equities, and US equities.

Strategy 3: Sell assets that have positive price correlation to volatility

Using history as our guide, when equity markets enter severely negative trends, it has been typical to see measures like the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) spike in the upward direction. The VIX has an important signalling capability, in that it indicates the forward-looking expectations of future volatility for the S&P 500. If the VIX is higher, it means that forward-looking expectations of volatility are expected to be higher. Certain assets like put options that have the S&P 500 as their underlying index would tend to see their prices rise in accordance with the rising VIX levels.

There is a well-known strategy where one can sell put options on the S&P 500, thereby collecting the premiums. The case for any put-writing strategy is of course directly tied to the underlying index upon which the options themselves are being written. If the premiums can tend to rise along with a rising VIX, what this indicates is a potential for the cushioning of downside risk during tougher market environments.

In the US, equities had reached record highs in early October of 2018 and valuations were quite high relative to other global markets. Record high prices and high relative valuations do tend to give investors more cause for concern to worry about downside risk, and this concern in our view is a critical catalyst for considering a put writing strategy.

Possible markets to consider on this basis: US equities.

Strategy 4: Don’t forget about traditional “safe haven” assets

Each of the first three strategies takes an approach to lower the risk of a given exposure either to equities directly or to something with high correlation to equities. We recognize that as volatility picks up, holding equities may become a less desirable approach whether or not is using some form of risk mitigation within the approach.

If volatility is increasing due to the perception of increased geopolitical risk, gold may be worth considering. Historically, when investors have been concerned about unexpected events or surprised by the direction politics takes in a major country, gold has been associated with delivering a differentiated return stream as compared to equities.

Another avenue might regard certain currencies, such as the US Dollar or Japanese Yen. These currencies have indicated a capability to increase in value as volatility has increased.

Possible markets to consider on this basis: Gold, US Dollar, Japanese Yen

Due to recent events, we have focused here on more defensively-oriented angles here. If investors are uncertain in their 2019 positioning, these approaches may lower their overall portfolios risk. For more information, visit WisdomTree.com.

DISCLAIMER

The content on this document is issued by WisdomTree UK Ltd (“WTUK”), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Our Conflicts of Interest Policy and Inventory are available on request.

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iShares noterar fond för flyg- och försvarssektorn på Xetra

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iShares Global Aerospace & Defence UCITS ETF investerar i aktier i företag från utvecklade marknader som tillhör flyg- och försvarssektorn. Åtagandet inkluderar tillverkare av civil eller militär flyg- och försvarsutrustning, relaterade reservdelar eller produkter, försvarselektronik och rymdutrustning.

iShares Global Aerospace & Defence UCITS ETF investerar i aktier i företag från utvecklade marknader som tillhör flyg- och försvarssektorn. Åtagandet inkluderar tillverkare av civil eller militär flyg- och försvarsutrustning, relaterade reservdelar eller produkter, försvarselektronik och rymdutrustning.

Sedan tidigare är denna börshandlade fond noterad på Euronext Amsterdam.

NamnISIN
Ticker
AvgiftUtdelnings-
policy
iShares Global Aerospace & Defence UCITS ETF USD (Acc)IE000U9ODG19
5J50 (EUR)
0,35%Ackumulerande

Produktutbudet inom Deutsche Börses ETF- och ETP-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 408 ETFer, 199 ETCer och 256 ETNer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 23 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer och ETPer i Europa.

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8RMY ETF köper bara aktier i europeiska försvarsföretag

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HANetf Future of European Defence UCITS ETF Accumulating (8RMY ETF) med ISIN IE000I7E6HL0 försöker att följa VettaFi Future of Defence Ex US-indexet. VettaFi Future of Defence Ex US-indexet följer resultatet för företag som är verksamma inom militär- eller försvarsindustrin. Amerikanska företag är exkluderade. Vikten av europeiska företag i indexet är minst 90 procent.

HANetf Future of European Defence UCITS ETF Accumulating (8RMY ETF) med ISIN IE000I7E6HL0 försöker att följa VettaFi Future of Defence Ex US-indexet. VettaFi Future of Defence Ex US-indexet följer resultatet för företag som är verksamma inom militär- eller försvarsindustrin. Amerikanska företag är exkluderade. Vikten av europeiska företag i indexet är minst 90 procent.

De börshandlade fondens TER (total expense ratio) uppgår till 0,39 % per år. HANetf Future of European Defence UCITS ETF Accumulating är den enda ETFen som följer VettaFi Future of Defence Ex US-indexet. ETFen replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet genom fullständig replikering (genom att köpa alla indexkomponenter). Utdelningarna i ETFen ackumuleras och återinvesteras.

Denna ETF lanserades den 7 april 2025 och har sitt säte i Irland.

Future of European Defence UCITS ETF

En europeisk försvars-ETF, från ett europeiskt företag, utan exponering mot USA.

Europa åtar sig att göra stora försvarsinvesteringar: Efter årtionden av underutnyttjande återupprustar Europa äntligen. EU har lagt fram en försvarsplan på 800 miljarder euro, medan enskilda europeiska NATO-medlemmar snabbt ökar sina egna militära budgetar.

Strategisk autonomi innebär att köpa europeiskt: Europas upprustning handlar inte bara om att spendera mer – det handlar om att bygga försvarsoberoende. För att minska beroendet av amerikansk utrustning prioriterar EU europeiskt tillverkade vapen, fordon och system, vilket ger den europeiska försvarssektorn en stark medvind.

Europeisk försvars-ETF från ett europeiskt företag

Detta är den första europeiska försvars-ETF som lanserats av ett europeiskt företag – och stöds av teamet bakom den snabbt växande NATO-ETFen.

Europeisk försvars-ETFens mål

Future for European Defence UCITS ETF (8RMY) syftar till att ge exponering mot NATO och NATO+-allierades försvars- och cyberförsvarsutgifter, exklusive USA.

Med ökande hot och amerikanskt stöd som inte längre garanteras, ser europeiska NATO-medlemmar över sina försvarsstrategier och ökar kraftigt militära utgifter. Efter ett decennium av att inte ha uppnått 2 % av BNP-målet har Europa tillsammans underutnyttjat med uppskattningsvis 850 miljarder euro. För att återuppbygga och modernisera sina väpnade styrkor riktar regeringarna nu denna förnyade investering mot europeiska försvarsföretag – vilket stärker kontinentens strategiska självförsörjning.

European Defence ETF följer VettaFi Future of Defence Ex US Index, som är utformat för att fånga upp europeiska företag vars majoritet av sina intäkter kommer från militära utgifter.

Handla 8RMY ETF

HANetf Future of European Defence UCITS ETF Accumulating (8RMY ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange. Av den anledningen förekommer olika kortnamn på samma börshandlade fond.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel  NordnetSAVRDEGIRO och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
Euronext ParisEURARMY
gettexEUR8RMY
Borsa ItalianaEURARMI
London Stock ExchangeGBXNAVY
London Stock ExchangeUSDARMY
XETRAEUR8RMY

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SAAB AB COMMON STOCK SEK7,78%
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Are Gold Mining Equities Regaining Attention Amid Rising Gold Prices?

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The investment environment in 2025 has been marked by increased uncertainty, including evolving trade dynamics involving the U.S. and rising geopolitical risks, which have weighed on overall market sentiment. Notably, though, gold has shone, surging past the symbolic $3,100 per ounce mark for the first time in history.

The investment environment in 2025 has been marked by increased uncertainty, including evolving trade dynamics involving the U.S. and rising geopolitical risks, which have weighed on overall market sentiment. Notably, though, gold has shone, surging past the symbolic $3,100 per ounce mark for the first time in history.

Gold has recently gained attention as investors seek potential hedges against rising inflation, currency fluctuations, and broader market volatility. Historical data suggests that both gold and gold mining equities have sometimes outperformed during periods of market stress, though such outcomes are not guaranteed and may vary depending on broader macroeconomic dynamics. The chart below displays historical episodes where gold and gold mining equities experienced relative strength during market corrections. However, such past performance should not be interpreted as a reliable indicator of future results.

Source: VanEck, World Gold Council.

The early months of 2025 have seen a resurgence in gold mining stock interest, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) receiving significant capital inflows. These flows reflect changing investor sentiment but should not be viewed as a guarantee of future returns.

Improved management

While gold mining stocks are a play on the gold price, they are much more than that. In the past, gold mining companies indulged in wanton value destruction. During gold’s last bull market that ended in 2011, mining companies borrowed heavily to fund new developments and extract gold from low quality mines. After the gold price dropped, they were forced to announce write-downs.

But since then, they have learned to keep costs under control. Indeed, for more than 10 years gold mining companies’ costs have grown by far less than a gold price that’s at least doubled. Despite the sharp rise in gold prices, especially in post 2020, miners have lagged significantly, likely reflecting ongoing capital and operating challenges noted between 2011 and 2015. This divergence may suggest a potential value opportunity if mining equities eventually re-rate closer to gold’s performance. Nevertheless, this is an assumption and may not turn out to be true, as structural issues or market dynamics could continue to weigh on miners’ valuations.

Gold Miner Premium/Discount to Gold

Source: Scotiabank. Data as February 2025.

Gold miners are expanding their profit margins, generating cash and embarking on share buy backs. What’s more, many have strong balance sheets. Yet still they trade at valuations below historical averages. Valuation metrics such as price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios remain below the 12-month moving average.

Valuations are Still Below Long-Term Averages

Source: Morningstar data.

Gold miners differentiate from gold because they are operating businesses influenced by company-specific factors such as management decisions, production efficiency, regulatory environments, and geopolitical risks. While gold is a passive asset driven by macroeconomic trends, miners add an additional layer of exposure to operational performance and cost structures.

A supportive macro backdrop

The performance of gold mining stocks is naturally influenced by the trajectory of gold prices. From a macroeconomic standpoint, factors such as inflation concerns and central bank policies continue to shape a cautiously optimistic outlook for gold, although the asset remains subject to volatility. Central banks continue to be net buyers, with 2023 marking a record year in terms of official sector demand. This trend has extended into 2024 and early 2025, underscoring institutional confidence in gold as a long-term store of value.

At the same time, the unfolding trade war is contributing to a more volatile global environment. These developments could support the case for gold and, by extension, gold mining equities. Moreover, recent efforts to improve transparency around global gold reserves, including audits of holdings in Fort Knox and London, have added credibility to the market, potentially reducing the perceived risk premium for miners.

Valuable portfolio diversification

From an investor’s perspective, gold mining stocks can be a useful diversifier in a broader equity portfolio, especially at a time of uncertainty for equity markets. Historically, gold mining stocks have exhibited a high sensitivity to changes in the price of gold, sometimes outperforming the metal itself during prolonged bull markets. However, they also tend to underperform during downturns, reflecting their leveraged exposure to gold price movements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The table below shows the low correlation of the two VanEck gold miners UCITS ETFs with the MSCI World Index of global stock prices. This low correlation suggests that gold mining ETFs may perform differently than global equities, potentially helping to reduce overall portfolio volatility during periods of market stress. That said, they also carry equity-like risks, and investors should assess their portfolio objectives and risk tolerance accordingly.

Low Price Correlations with Stocks

InvestmentMSCI WorldGold PriceVanEck Junior Gold Miners ETFVanEck Gold Miners ETF
MSCI World1.00   
Gold Price0.101.00  
VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF0.380.761.00 
VanEck Gold Miners ETF0.310.810.961.00

Source: Morningstar data.

A better way to play the rally?

When the VanEck Gold Miners UCITS ETF was introduced in 2015, it aimed to provide investors with a way to gain diversified exposure to gold mining equities. Early performance was tempered by concerns related to past capital discipline within the sector. Recent inflows into ETF may reflect renewed investor interest, although sentiment toward mining equities can remain sensitive to market and operational developments.

As gold glitters at a time of market volatility, there are good reasons to think gold miners may be a better way to play the rally. It should however be noted that while gold prices and mining companies are closely linked, investing in miners introduces additional layers of risk and complexity and investors should consider all the risk factors before investing.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This is marketing communication. Please refer to the prospectus of the UCITS and to the KID/KIID before making any final investment decisions. These documents are available in English and the KIDs/KIIDs in local languages and can be obtained free of charge at www.vaneck.com, from VanEck Asset Management B.V. (the “Management Company”) or, where applicable, from the relevant appointed facility agent for your country.

For investors in Switzerland: VanEck Switzerland AG, with registered office in Genferstrasse 21, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland, has been appointed as distributor of VanEck´s products in Switzerland by the Management Company. A copy of the latest prospectus, the Articles, the Key Information Document, the annual report and semi-annual report can be found on our website www.vaneck.com or can be obtained free of charge from the representative in Switzerland: Zeidler Regulatory Services (Switzerland) AG, Neudtadtgasse 1a, 8400 Winterthur, Switzerland. Swiss paying agent: Helvetische Bank AG, Seefeldstrasse 215, CH-8008 Zürich.

For investors in the UK: This is a marketing communication targeted to FCA regulated financial intermediaries. Retail clients should not rely on any of the information provided and should seek assistance from an IFA for all investment guidance and advice. VanEck Securities UK Limited (FRN: 1002854) is an Appointed Representative of Sturgeon Ventures LLP (FRN: 452811), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK, to distribute VanEck´s products to FCA regulated firms such as Independent Financial Advisors (IFAs) and Wealth Managers.

This information originates from VanEck (Europe) GmbH, which is authorized as an EEA investment firm under MiFID under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (“MiFiD). VanEck (Europe) GmbH has its registered address at Kreuznacher Str. 30, 60486 Frankfurt, Germany, and has been appointed as distributor of VanEck products in Europe by the Management Company. The Management Company is incorporated under Dutch law and registered with the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM).

”The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk for any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”), expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, noninfringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.”

This material is only intended for general and preliminary information and shall not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice. VanEck (Europe) GmbH and its associated and affiliated companies (together “VanEck”) assume no liability with regards to any investment, divestment or retention decision on the basis of this information. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) but not necessarily those of VanEck. Opinions are current as of the publication date and are subject to change with market conditions. Information provided by third party sources is believed to be reliable and have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness and cannot be guaranteed.

VanEck Gold Miners UCITS ETF (the ”ETF”) is a sub-fund of VanEck UCITS ETFs plc, an open-ended variable capital umbrella investment company with limited liability between sub-funds. The ETF is registered with the Central Bank of Ireland, passively managed and tracks an equity index. Investing in the ETF should be interpreted as acquiring shares of the ETF and not the underlying assets.

VanEck Junior Gold Miners UCITS ETF (the ”ETF”) is a sub-fund of VanEck UCITS ETFs plc, an open-ended variable capital umbrella investment company with limited liability between sub-funds. The ETF is registered with the Central Bank of Ireland, passively managed and tracks an equity index. Investing in the ETF should be interpreted as acquiring shares of the ETF and not the underlying assets.

Investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors must buy and sell units of the UCITS on the secondary market via a an intermediary (e.g. a broker) and cannot usually be sold directly back to the UCITS. Brokerage fees may incur. The buying price may exceed, or the selling price may be lower than the current net asset value. The indicative net asset value (iNAV) of the UCITS is available on Bloomberg. The Management Company may terminate the marketing of the UCITS in one or more jurisdictions. The summary of the investor rights is available in English at: complaints-procedure.pdf (vaneck.com). For any unfamiliar technical terms, please refer to ETF Glossary | VanEck.

No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.

© VanEck (Europe) GmbH ©VanEck Switzerland AG © VanEck Securities UK Limited

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