Nyheter
21Shares special report USDC
Two bank runs, which led to a short-lived depeg of USDC, shook the crypto market overnight yet increased the total crypto market cap by 5% over the past week. Bitcoin and Ethereum increased by 7.87% and 7.12%, respectively. Factors contributing to the resistance of the two largest cryptoassets by market cap could be attributed to the emerging narrative of Bitcoin as an alternative non-state monetary system alongside its growing ecosystem along with Ethereum’s anticipated Shanghai upgrade scheduled for next month. Coming in second and third in last week’s rally, Polygon (5.31%) within scaling solutions and Lido (3.09%) among decentralized applications.
This special report gives you a timeline of what happened over the past week, explains how it affected the market, and what to expect.
Figure 1: Weekly TVL and Price Performance of Major Crypto Categories
Source: 21Shares, CoinGecko, DeFi Llama. Close data as of March 13.
Key takeaways
• Three banks out of six banks holding USDC reserves collapsed last week, including a voluntary winddown from Silvergate and a takeover of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) from US financial regulators amid insolvency fears.
• Circle disclosed that SVB holds 8% of USDC cash reserves USDC depegs over the weekend, reaching an all-time low of 87 cents.
• US regulators stepped in to protect all SVB, Signature Bank depositors, and other potentially-affected banks.
What happened?
March 8
• Silvergate Capital announced on Wednesday that it will wind down operations and liquidate its bank on the back of developments covered in our previous newsletter.
March 10
• The US witnessed its second-largest bank failure. The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) took control of SVB after failing to pay depositors.
• Circle disclosed that $3.3B (8%) of reserves backing its USDC remain in SVB, increasing selling pressure.
• Coinbase and Binance paused USDC/USD conversions
March 11
• USDC depegged to $0.87. Circle announced they would stand behind USDC and cover any shortfall using corporate resources, involving external capital if needed.
• USDC was collateralized 77% ($32.4 billion) with short-dated US Treasury Bills via its BlackRock’s money market fund, and 23% ($9.7 billion) with cash held at a variety of US financial institutions, including, Silvergate, Signature Bank, and SVB.
• MakerDAO launched an emergency proposal to limit exposure to USDC
Figure 2: Aggressive Swapping of USDC for USDT on Curve
Source: 21shares on Dune Analytics
• Upon Circle’s disclosure on SVB, exchanges on Ethereum like Curve experienced record-level volumes of $6.7 billion as traders hedged against the USDC debacle for Tether.
March 12:
• US financial regulators took control over Signature Bank
• TheFederal Reserve, Treasury, and the FDIC issued a joint statement:
o SVB and other banks’ depositors will be made whole. SVB depositors would have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13. The taxpayer will bear no losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank.
o Shareholders and certain unsecured debt holders will not be protected.
March 13
• Circle’s CEO Jeremy Allaire confirmed that 100% of USDC reserves are safe and secure and that they will complete their transfer of remaining SVB cash to Bank of New York (BNY) Mellon once banks in the US are back at work after a turbulent weekend.
• USDC repegged to $1.
What to expect?
• Easing conditions to bootstrap liquidity: Banks will enjoy a slightly flexible environment allowing them to issue loans for up to one year, using bonds and treasuries as collateral, as part of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP).
This initiative is adopted, so the central bank doesn’t terminate its Quantitative Tightening (QT) Program and offset its efforts to dampen inflation. That said, a mild pivot from a high-interest rate to a plateauing rates regime as the liquidity tightening conditions played a role in destabilizing the banking system could come into play, evident by Goldman Sachs’s latest report. FED funds futures are now showing 60% odds of a 0 BPS rate hike in March, in conjunction with a lower estimate for the FED’s funding rate at 5.1%, down from 5.7% from last week.
Figure 3: FED Funds Futures
Source: TradingView
• Counterparty Exposure: More banks catering exclusively to Silicon Valley companies will probably be vulnerable, as last year’s worsening macro conditions have roiled the tech industry. The true extent of the contagion will likely reveal itself over the next few weeks, as the Luna and FTX contagion have demonstrated. This might make it quite challenging for crypto firms to continue operating as Signature and Silvergate provided an instant settlement network for onboarding institutions, let alone providing basic banking services. Last year’s soaring interest triggered the asset-liability maturity mismatch, and thus, more banks are prone to failure if they don’t hedge positions via swaps.
Figure 4: Unrealized Gains/Losses on Investment Securities
Source: FDIC
• Circle weather the storm: The high-interest rate environment benefits stablecoins issuers like Circle as they profit by reinvesting user fiat deposits into US treasuries. This design left them in a strong position where they could liquidate some of the bond portfolios to honor redemptions, which they’ve already begun by liquidating their short-term treasury. Further, their situation is strengthened by the fact that Circle doesn’t share profits on its deposits with token holders. Thus, Circle should be fine as long as there is an elevated circulation of the USDC and the three other banks holding custody of its assets remain solvent.
• Rising support for decentralized stablecoins: Although fiat-backed stablecoins are considered the safest, they are still centralized, as issuers can run into trouble if their hosting banks fail. Moreover, the reliance and intertwinement with the traditional financial system will continue to cast a shadow over how durable these stablecoins can be during systemic shock. Thus, the crypto economy needs a durable stablecoin that can withstand failures in the traditional banking system while at the same time providing assurances of stability that honor users’ redemptions. In that regard, there will be increased calls for new stablecoin designs backed by a mixture of high-quality, uncorrelated, and censorship-resistant assets.
For instance, Maker is discussing revamping DAI’s collateral to reduce its reliance on USDC, while FRAX is proposing to switch its backing from USDC to sfrxETH (new ETH liquid-staking derivative of Frax protocol).
• Certain service providers will pursue becoming a bank or a secure FMA: Much like WeChat and Alipay have accounts at the Chinese central bank (PBOC), Circle could also push for a similar move that would supplement their users with federal insurance that can be used to keep customers whole during turbulent times. Kraken is also moving ahead to become a bank as it secured Wyoming’s approval to become a special purpose depository institution (SPDI) back in 2020 and is now on track to launch ‘very soon’ according to the exchange’s chief legal officer.
• Increased volatility: Until new banking partners emerge, liquidity will be limited across the board, resulting in higher spreads and potential aggressive market movements. Although USDC is almost fully re-pegged and is the preferred go-to for many investors, there will be increased skepticism towards holding a fully-US-based stablecoin due to the regulatory and political risk. An outflow of stablecoins leaving the ecosystem may translate to tighter liquidity conditions. Exchanges could scramble for liquidity until they fill the gap left by the collapse and takeover of SBV, Signature, and Silvergate banks.
Figure 5: Liquidity per exchange
Source: Kaiko
• Flight-to-safety: Although Bitcoin isn’t risk-free, its decentralization traits characterize it as a safe haven since the network is independent of any governing entities and, thus from potential political and economic meddling. That said, the failure of banks has reignited BTC’s value proposition as a non-state monetary system and emerging store of value. Binance already adopted this approach as its founder articulated that the exchange will swap the remaining BUSD in the $1B industry recovery fund into native assets like BTC, ETH, BNB, and others.
Next Week’s Calendar
Source: Forex Factory, CoinMarketCal
Research Newsletter
Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com
Disclaimer
The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.
Nyheter
Montrose storsatsning på ETFer fortsätter – lanserar Sveriges första globala ETF med hävstång
En europeisk försvarsöversikt: Med ökande hot och USAs stöd inte längre garanterat, håller europeiska NATO-medlemmar på att se över sina försvarsstrategier och kraftigt öka militärutgifterna. Efter ett decennium av misslyckande med att nå målet på 2 % av BNP har Europa kollektivt underutnyttjat med uppskattningsvis 850 miljarder euro. Nu, för att återuppbygga och modernisera sina väpnade styrkor, riktar regeringarna denna förnyade investering mot europeiska försvarsföretag – vilket ökar kontinentens strategiska självtillit.
Ett europeiskt försvar
Europa åtar sig att göra seriösa försvarsinvesteringar
Efter årtionden av underutnyttjande, rustar Europa äntligen upp sig. EU har fastställt en försvarsplan på 800 miljarder euro, medan enskilda europeiska NATO-medlemmar – från Polen till Storbritannien – snabbt ökar sina egna militärbudgetar.
Strategisk autonomi innebär att köpa europeiskt
Europas upprustning handlar inte bara om att spendera mer – det handlar om att bygga europeiskt oberoende och självständighet inom försvaret. För att minska beroendet av amerikansk utrustning prioriterar EU europeiskt tillverkade vapen, fordon och system, vilket ger en stark medvind till den europeiska försvarssektorn.
Byggd av Europas ledande ETF-experter för försvar
Denna ETF bygger på HANetfs bevisade framgång inom globala försvarsinvesteringar. Uppbackad av teamet bakom den snabbväxande NATO ETF erbjuder den diversifierad tillgång till Europas försvarssektor – från traditionella försvarsnamn till cybersäkerhet, vilket speglar den moderna krigföringens natur. HANetf är ett europeiskt företag.
Indexmetodik
Med ökande hot och USAs stöd inte längre garanterat, håller europeiska NATO-medlemmar på att se över sina försvarsstrategier och kraftigt öka militärutgifterna. Efter ett decennium av misslyckande med att nå målet på 2 procent av BNP har Europa kollektivt underutnyttjat med uppskattningsvis 850 miljarder euro. Nu, för att återuppbygga och modernisera sina väpnade styrkor, riktar regeringarna denna förnyade investering mot europeiska försvarsföretag – vilket ökar kontinentens strategiska självtillit.
Landsviktningar
Största innehav
Data as of March 31, 2025. Source: VettaFi
Rheinmetall
Rheinmetall, en tyskbaserad försvarsentreprenör, har legat i framkant när det gäller att modernisera NATOs militärer och åtgärda kritiska luckor i europeisk försvarskapacitet. Rheinmetall är känt för sin expertis inom pansarfordon, artillerisystem och ammunition, och har sett en ökning i efterfrågan på grund av ökade Natos försvarsutgifter efter Rysslands invasion av Ukraina.
Att ta itu med geopolitiska spänningar
Rheinmetall har utnyttjat de europeiska NATO-medlemmarnas strävan att nå eller överträffa målet för försvarsutgifterna på 2 procent av BNP. Med många Nato-länder som försöker modernisera sina landstyrkor, har Rheinmetalls erbjudanden, inklusive Leopard 2-stridsvagnsuppgraderingarna och Lynx pansarfordon, varit i hög efterfrågan.
Stark orderbok
Shell produktionskapacitet
BAE Systems
BAE Systems, med huvudkontor i Storbritannien, är en av de största försvarsentreprenörerna globalt och en kritisk leverantör för Natos försvarsinfrastruktur. Med en portfölj som spänner över luft-, hav-, land- och cyberdomäner har BAE Systems varit avgörande för att göra det möjligt för NATO-medlemmar att förbättra sin försvarsförmåga.
Betydande bidrag till luftförsvaret
BAE Systems tillverkar nyckelkomponenter till Eurofighter Typhoon och F-35 LightningII, båda väsentliga för Natos överlägsenhet i luften. Företaget tillhandahåller även avancerade radar- och elektroniska krigföringssystem för att stödja NATO-operationer.
AUKUS ubåtsprogram
Cyber och elektronisk krigföring
Handla ASWC ETF
HANetf Future of Defence UCITS ETF (ASWC ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange. Av den anledningen förekommer olika kortnamn på samma börshandlade fond.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel Nordnet, SAVR, DEGIRO och Avanza.
MONTLEV, Sveriges första globala ETF med hävstång
Montrose storsatsning på ETFer fortsätter – lanserar Sveriges första globala ETF med hävstång
Kommer snart – en europeisk försvars-ETF, från ett europeiskt företag, utan USA-exponering
Vem ska ha en LEI-kod?
BSE9 ETF bara företagsobligationer med förfall 2029
Fonder som ger exponering mot försvarsindustrin
WisdomTree lanserar europeisk försvarsfond.
Warren Buffetts råd om vad man ska göra när börsen kraschar
De bästa börshandlade fonderna för tyska utdelningsaktier
Trumps återkomst får europeiska aktier att rusa
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedanFonder som ger exponering mot försvarsindustrin
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanWisdomTree lanserar europeisk försvarsfond.
-
Nyheter1 vecka sedanWarren Buffetts råd om vad man ska göra när börsen kraschar
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanDe bästa börshandlade fonderna för tyska utdelningsaktier
-
Nyheter3 veckor sedanTrumps återkomst får europeiska aktier att rusa
-
Nyheter4 dagar sedanSvenskarna har en ny favorit-ETF
-
Nyheter4 veckor sedanUtdelning i XACT Norden Högutdelande mars 2025
-
Nyheter2 veckor sedanHANetf lanserar Europa-fokuserad försvars-ETF
