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2025 Begins: Insights, Market Update Dec.24 and ETPs Performance Attribution
Happy New Year! On behalf of the Hashdex team, I wish you success and prosperity in 2025. As we enter the new year, we are filled with optimism about the opportunities ahead in the crypto asset market. The current market dynamics, regulatory advancements, and increasing institutional adoption continue to strengthen the foundation for growth. At the core of our outlook lies the stronger investment case for crypto index strategies—an effective way to capture the evolving opportunities in this dynamic asset class.
Notably, since the US elections, our Multi-Crypto Index ETPs have been outperforming Bitcoin, demonstrating the value of diversified exposure in this bull cycle.
Explore our latest insights:
• 2025 Crypto Investment Outlook
• Latest CIO Notes: Which Crypto Assets Will Outperform Bitcoin in 2025?
Below is our 2024 December market update and performance attributions for our Crypto Index ETPs.
Hashdex Crypto Index ETPs: performances (USD) as of end of December 24
• Beta Index ETP – Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH or HDX1) (largest Crypto Index ETP): December: -3.66%, 2024 +101%.
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• Smart-Beta Index ETP – Crypto Momentum Index ETP (HAMO or HDXM): December: -7.72%, 2024 +51%.
Market Update – December 24
December started strong, with the Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) climbing nearly 10% by mid-month, driven by optimism surrounding pro-crypto sentiment in the U.S. administration and strong inflows into Ethereum ETFs. However, the Federal Reserve’s December 18 announcement—indicating fewer-than-expected rate cuts in 2025—triggered a trend reversal across risk assets. The NCI ended December down 4%, but the year concluded with a +101% gain.
As highlighted in our CIO’s December Notes, we are firmly in a crypto bull cycle. Altcoins historically outperform Bitcoin in these cycles, and the NCI’s continued outperformance of BTC further signals this trend. Over the past three months, the NCI has returned +47.9%, compared to BTC’s +43.1%.
Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI) and Crypto Momentum Index (HAMO) relative to other asset class in December 24
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/12/24, HAMO for Crypto Momentum Index, the underlying of HAMO ETP.
Despite December’s pullback, crypto remains a high-growth investment category, with strong fundamentals supporting further outperformance in 2025.
Performance Attribution
Nasdaq Crypto Index (NCI)
XRP led the month’s performance, rising over 10% due to regulatory optimism. Meanwhile, November’s top-performing assets, including Solana, Cardano, and Avalanche, saw corrections of ~20%. Bitcoin and Ethereum, the largest NCI constituents, fell by 3.7% and 10.0%, respectively.
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/12/24.
Crypto Momentum Factor Index
The Crypto Momentum Factor Index closely matched Bitcoin’s performance in December, bolstered by XRP’s 13.9% rise, which accounts for ~20% of the index. Since the U.S. elections, the index has seen a 53.7% increase, reinforcing its tactical edge in capturing bullish trends.
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/12/24.
Correlation (3m) to traditional asset classes
Source: Hashdex, as of 31/12/24. NCI for Nasdaq Crypto Index.
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index ETP (HASH)
Broad exposure to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins with quarterly rebalancing – evolutive basket reflecting market capitalisations
Largest Crypto Index ETP in Europe, AUM +$400m
ISIN: CH1184151731 / Tickers: HASH (SIX and Euronext) or HDX1 (Xetra) – tradable in USD, EUR, CHF and GBP
Current allocation:
Hashdex Crypto Momentum Factor ETP (HAMO)
Momentum Factor-driven allocation with monthly rebalancing
ISIN: CH1218734544 / Tickers: HAMO (SIX and Euronext) or HDXM (Xetra) – tradable in USD, EUR, CHF and GBP
Current allocation:
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In our 2025 Crypto Investment Outlook, we emphasized the importance of applications in driving blockchain adoption and increasing demand for native tokens. With that in mind, it caught our attention that by January 2025—well past the US election predictions of November 2024—Polymarket had expanded into sports-related prediction markets, reaching 450,000 monthly active traders.
Ethereum’s success depends on the rise of useful applications that drive demand for its infrastructure, which is why the recent growth of platforms like Polymarket should strengthen ETH’s investment thesis, even as it underperforms Bitcoin and competitors like Solana. Time will tell, but we believe investors are currently underestimating ETH’s value, especially given the success of Polymarket, stablecoins, and other platforms dependent on Ethereum.
Market Highlights
Polymarket’s new milestone
Polymarket reached 450,000 monthly active traders, as the platform has diversified it betting pools into sports-related prediction markets.
With a substantial trading volume of $1.6 billion in January alone, we may be witnessing the birth of a key user-driven application.
This milestone connects to our Crypto Investment Outlook for 2025, in which we explained that user-driven applications are key to adoption.
Bitcoin reserve on US agenda
Trump’s “crypto czar” David Sacks stated that a bitcoin reserve is a priority, though it’s still in early stages.
The White House plans to establish formal communication with the crypto industry, with an official announcement expected in the future.
Republican lawmakers are forming a bipartisan working group to draft crypto regulations, supporting Trump’s broader digital asset policies.
Trading volume record on ETH ETFs
US Spot ETH ETFs witnessed record trading volumes of $1.5 billion amid Trump tariff turmoil.
This record volume, aligned with a positive $420M net inflow, supports the growing interest and importance of regulated crypto products.
Market Metrics
This week was underwhelming for the NCITM (-3.4%), following Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on steel and aluminum. Despite these challenges, US crypto-regulated products demonstrated resilience, recording a net inflow of $624 million. The confirmation of a BTC reserve being a top priority for the new administration, signals a great tailwind for the future of digital assets.
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